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3 Week 3 Sunday Night Football Props to Bet – Patriots vs Lions

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Sep 23, 2018 · 9:00 AM PDT

Tom Brady throwing
Tom Brady and the Patriots host Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in Week 9. (Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr)
  • Patriots roll into Motown for Sunday Night Football battle with Lions
  • Brady, Stafford both looking to bounce back after losses
  • Check out three prop bets worth noting for Sunday Night

Man, things started out so good last week.

And then the wheels came off. Who knew the Giants would abandon the run game? And the Cowboys would be comfortably ahead all game to feed Zeke and milk that clock?

Week 3 is all about bouncing back – for the Patriots, the Lions, and for this Sunday Night props board.

We’re off and running. You can also find the odds, spread, and more in our Patriots vs Lions Betting Preview.

Prop #1: Stafford Will Have More Completions than Brady

Quarterback Odds
Matthew Stafford -122
Tom Brady -122

Through two weeks, Stafford has already thrown 25 more passes than Brady, and has 61 completions to Brady’s 48.

Two factors working together have led to this: the Lions’ run game has not materialized, averaging just 68.5 yards per game (30th), and Detroit has trailed for all but 15:58 of game action this year, so abandoning the run was necessary to try to get back into the contest.

That trend continues here. Detroit’s defense is a bloated 30th in defensive DVOA, and they’re going to try to contend with a Belichick-led team that just got owned a week ago. Bad pairing.

Meanwhile, this isn’t your parents’ Patriots offense. They have a 74-55 pass-run ration this season, as they try to keep defenses honest with a dual threat on each play. The Lions, meanwhile, have thrown 103 passes and run just 33 times.

Expect Stafford to play catch up at least all second half.

Prop #2: Patriots/Lions Will Not Score a TD Over 49.5 yards

Touchdown longer than 49.5 yards  Odds
OVER -115
UNDER -115

I went back and forth on this one, because both teams have yet to produce a major greater than this figure through two games.

However, the Patriots surrendered a 61-yard score last week, while the Lions have given up a 60+ yard TD run each week.

New England has been hamstrung because they’ve contended with a pair of strong defenses to start, so getting the ball out in short order was the recipe to protecting Brady.

But they also haven’t sought out – or have the weapons to – take a home run shot.

Of course, this bet crashes if Josh Gordon is deemed healthy enough to play – he’s the first true burner Brady has had since Randy Moss.

No confidence in Detroit’s offense to score deep is more an homage to the sideline matchup. Bill Belichick talks a kind game, but he will take great pleasure in confusing Matt Patricia’s offense, it’s a hallmark of Patriots football.

Prop #3: Golladay Will Have More Receptions than Gronkowski

Receiver Odds
Kenny Golladay +137
Rob Gronkowski -152

Turnabout is fair play: if Patricia knows his former team, then he knows that taking Gronk out of the picture (while without Edelman) really stalls the Patriots’ offense.

The Jaguars executed that blueprint to perfection, limiting Gronkowski to two catches for 15 yards.

I like the value in Golladay, who’s been targeted 21 times in two games to Gronk’s 12, and has three more receptions (12-9).

The Lions could be without Pro Bowl corner Darius Slay, who was still in concussion protocol and missing practices late into the week, but, as the Jags showed, it’s a concerted team blanket-job to limit the Patriots’ most dangerous weapon.

It’s on the other side of this ball that should win you the bet, as Marvin Jones’ (ankle) availability for Sunday is in doubt, leaving more targets coming the second-year receiver’s way.

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