NFL Week 7 Picks Straight Up – Predicted Upsets and Underdogs Showing Value
- NFL Week 7 upset picks are live ahead of Sunday’s slate
- The New York Giants are 7-2 straight up in their last nine games against the Washington Commanders
- Check out our favorite NFL Week 7 upset picks below
Will road underdogs fare any better straight up in the NFL Week 7 upset picks? Home favorites were 7-1 the NFL Week 6 straight up picks.
The home chalk was 6-2 SU last week. Overall, favorites were a solid 10-4 SU.
Which Week 7 upset picks look to make their mark in Week 7, along with leaving more cash in your pocket? Let’s look at that.
NFL Week 7 Upset Picks
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Pick | Units Risked |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants vs Washington Commanders | NYG +3 | +125 | NYG | 1 |
| Detroit Lions vs Baltimore Ravens | DET +3 | +130 | DET | 1 |
| Miami Dolphins vs Philadelphia Eagles | MIA +2.5 | +120 | MIA | 1 |
Certainly the marquee matchup on the Week 7 NFL slate sees the 5-1 Philadelphia Eagles playing host to the 5-1 Miami Dolphins. Philadelphia is coming off the club’s first loss of the season at the hands of another AFC East club, the New York Jets. Miami is 8-4 straight up in the past 12 games against the Eagles.
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NFL Week 7 Upset Picks
Both of the NFL’s remaining unbeaten teams were toppled last week. Along with the Eagles losing to the Jets, the San Francisco 49ers were upset on the road by the Cleveland Browns.
Giants Dominant Against Commanders
Picking a team to win that hasn’t scored an offensive touchdown in the past three games is a definite risk. That being said, the New York Giants historically take command when on the field facing the Washington Commanders.
New York is a pitiful 9-22-1 in the past 32 divisional games. But the one NFC East opponent they succeed against is Washington. The Giants won six of those nine games against the Commanders. Over the past nine meetings between these two longtime rivals, New York is 7-2 SU.
The Giants haven’t gone four games without an offensive TD since 1976. It hasn’t happened in the NFL since the 0-16 Browns of 2008. And Washington QB Sam Howell has been sacked an NFL-high 34 times.
NFL Upset Picks: New York Giants Moneyline (+125)
Are Lions NFL’s Best Team?
Against the spread, the Detroit Lions are the NFL’s #1 (28-12) team since Dan Campbell took over as head coach in 2021. This season, the 5-1 Lions may just flat out be the best team in the NFL. They’re overwhelming favorites to win the NFC South in the NFL divisional odds.
Opponents facing the Lions this season have a combined 16-17 SU record. That’s the best mark among opponents of any of the NFL’s four 5-1 squads. The addition of 2022 first-round pick WR Jameson Williams, back from an NFL suspension, gives Detroit a deep threat. It’s another weapon in QB Jared Goff’s arsenal.
The Detroit Lions right now:
– Tied for the best record in the NFL
– Most bet team to win the NFC
– 5th most bet team to win it all🦁 #OnePride pic.twitter.com/iFZjyfAiOn
— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) October 17, 2023
There are concerns facing the Lions in this matchup. Lions RB David Montgomery (ribs) isn’t expected to play. Backup RB Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) has missed the past two games. As well, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is 15-1 SU all-time against NFC opposition. That’s the best record of any QB since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.
NFL Upset Picks: Detroit Lions Moneyline (+130)
Tua Beats Hurts Again
It’s the NFL’s #1 and #2 offenses going toe-to-toe in the NFL Week 7 SNF game. Miami (2,992 yards) heads this list, followed by the Eagles (2,228). The Dolphins are leading the league in both passing (1,901) and rushing (1,091) yardage. No team has done that for a full season since the 1941 Chicago Bears.
Tua Tagovailoa vs Jalen Hurts Comparison
| Player (Team) | Completion % | Yards | TD Passes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles) | 66.2 | 1542 | 7 |
| Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins) | 71.1 | 1876 | 14 |
These are two of the teams tied with the NFL’s best record at 5-1 SU, It’s also a rematch for the first time at the NFL level of former Alabama QBs Tua Tagovailoa (Miami) and Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia).
Former college teammates Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts face each other in the pros for the first time Sunday🐬🦅@Dolphins pic.twitter.com/0X54lkkoxe
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) October 18, 2023
Tagovailoa beat Hurts out for the #1 job with the Crimson Tide and the +450 chalk in the NFL MVP odds has been dominant on the stats sheet this season. Tua is leading all NFL QBs in passing yards (1,876), passing TDs (14), passer rating (114.1), and passing yards per game (312.7), attempt (9.5) and completion (13.4).
The people are divided in their assessment of Miami’s ability to pull off the upset here. In the NFL public betting splits, the Dolphins at +120 are getting 70% of handle in moneyline splits. However, Philadelphia is pulling in 58% of moneyline bets.
NFL Upset Picks: Miami Dolphins Moneyline (+120)
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
