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NFL Week 7 Picks Straight Up – Predicted Upsets and Underdogs Showing Value

Eric Thompson

by Eric Thompson in NFL Football

Updated Oct 23, 2021 · 6:05 AM PDT

Derrick Henry running through tackle
Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) is hit by Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Charvarius Ward (35) in the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 10, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/James Kenney)
  • The swiss cheese Chiefs defense can’t stop King Henry and the underdog Titans
  • The Colts look to keep rolling against a hobbled Jimmy G and the San Francisco 49ers
  • Last week’s picks went 1-2, losing 0.46 units and bringing our season total down to +11.59 (9-7 record)

Pop the champagne ’72 Dolphins: our winning ways painfully came to an end in Week 6 courtesy of a Geno Smith fumble in overtime. Normally, a heartbreaker like that would land Seattle in the proverbial doghouse for a while. But with six teams on bye, coupled with some absolutely monstrous favorites in Week 7, it’s slim pickings out there for likable upsets.

Thus, Seattle is back on our list. But we’re going to start our slate with the architect of the biggest upset in Week 6.

NFL Week 7 Upset Picks

Matchup Spread Moneyline Pick Units
Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans KC -4.5 +188 Titans 1
Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers SF -4.5 +180 Colts 1
New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks NO -4.5 +180 Seahawks 1

Odds as of October 22nd at DraftKings and FanDuel.

King Henry Crushes Chiefs

Coming off a get-right game in Washington, the Kansas City Chiefs will have to face another AFC contender in Nashville, where the home Tennessee Titans are getting 4.5 points.

Despite already matching last year’s loss total for the entire season, the Chiefs offense is still an incredible unit. In fact, the only ones that seem capable of stopping Kansas City is themselves. They lead the league in giveaways, including some truly headscratching ones.

Kansas City’s aerial success will continue against a Titans secondary that is absolutely decimated. But if they can’t protect the football against a Tennessee front seven that is playing pretty well, that will open the door for another shootout loss.

I don’t know if you’ve heard, but the Chiefs defense is dreadful. And the running back they’ll be tasked to stop this Sunday is the exact opposite of that.

Despite their top two wide receivers being hobbled, Tennessee found a way to outpace the high-flying Bills offense on Monday Night by leaning on Derrick Henry. Not only is he a threat to take it to the house anytime, but the consistent ground attack is a good way to control the clock and limit how many opportunities Patrick Mahomes and company get.

You don’t even have to strain your brain to imagine how the Titans will pull off this upset at home: that was literally the last regular season meeting between these two teams.

We called that first Titans upset many moons ago and I think we can get another one here. Much like every NFL defensive player, I don’t want to be on the wrong side of Henry.

Colts Kickstart Their Comeback

Once again we’re fading a favored San Francisco 49ers team on Sunday Night Football, this time backing a visiting Indianapolis Colts team that’s getting 4.5 points.

The 2-4 Colts are often buried in the one o’clock slate of games, so many casual fans only exposure to Indy was watching them blow a 19-point lead in Baltimore. But considering some of the recent ass-whoopins the Ravens have handed out, that result is actually pretty solid. In fact, all of Indy’s four losses came to pretty strong teams, a category San Francisco doesn’t fall into after losing three straight.

San Francisco will have Jimmy G back, putting a hold on the Trey Lance era. Normally, a matchup against a Colts defense that’s stout against the run and very weak against the pass would give Garoppolo a great stage to reaffirm he’s the best option to start at QB. But playing with a bum calf in what could be torrential downpours, how much success will Captain Checkdown be able to have?

Meanwhile, Carson Wentz and the Colts’ offense has been surprisingly effective, and they’ll be getting Quenton Nelson back for this one. That should provide even more of a boost to Jonathan Taylor and this ground game.

A win here will launch the Colts right back into the thick of things in the AFC, while a loss for San Fran still doesn’t mean much (there’s gonna be a few mediocre teams making the NFC playoffs). Plus, the SportsbettingDime formula is calling an upset here and apparently those nerd numbers are performing even better than we are.

No Saints in Erratic QB Matchup

For the second straight week, Geno Smith’s Seattle Seahawks will feature in primetime where the visiting New Orleans Saints are favored by 4.5 points.

So far this season, the Jameis Winston-led-Saints have matched their quarterback’s erratic play. They’ve won the two games they were underdogs in and lost both times they were favored by a field goal or more. This is simply a team you can’t get a feeling for.

The Saints are near the bottom of the league in pressure rate allowed. Part of that has to do with injuries along their offensive line, but that’s not helped by Winston’s slow release. He ranks third last in the NFL in time to throw, really seeming to relish the rare opportunities Sean Payton gives him to drop back.

Seattle has not been able to get much pressure, or really do much of anything on defense. But that’s the magic of playing Winston: he can even make bad defenses look good when he’s having one of those nights.

Pete Carroll didn’t commit to the run nearly as much as anticipated in Pittsburgh, only recording five rushing attempts in the first half. Once they got around to feeding Alex Collins in the second half, that’s when the Seahawks were able to mount their comeback.

In a primetime battle of two coaches that desperately don’t want their QBs to lose it for them, I definitely like Seattle to cover again. But considering the wide range of outcomes these quarterbacks offer, it’s worth it to put some on an outright Seahawks win.

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