Game 3 Lightning vs Canadiens Prediction, Player Props & Odds (Apr. 24)

• The Habs are +102 underdogs tonight in Game 3 of their 1st Round series vs the Lightning
• Tampa Bay has produced only 2.89 expected goals at even strength so far
• See below for my favorite Game 3 Lightning vs Canadiens prediction, plus the top player props to bet and the latest odds

The Lightning vs Canadiens 1st Round series continues tonight, with the teams deadlocked at 1 game a piece. Online sportsbooks are siding with Tampa Bay on the road per the NHL odds, but I believe that’s a mistake for the reasons I’ll outline below.

Puck drop for Game 3 of this Eastern Conference series is scheduled for 7 pm ET from the Bell Centre in Montreal, QC. TNT, truTV and HBO Max will handle broadcast duties across America, while Sportsnet will carry the game for Canadian viewers.

Here is my favorite Game 3 Lightning vs Canadiens prediction, plus the top player props to bet and the latest odds for the April 24th matchup.

Game 3 Lightning vs Canadiens Prediction

• Montreal Canadiens Moneyline (+102 at DraftKings)

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I’m betting on the Habs to pull off the upset tonight at +102 odds. I’ve been hesitant to buy into Montreal in this series, as I expected the Lightning’s pedigree and coaching to simply overwhelm them. Through two games, that certainly hasn’t been the case. The Canadiens have been the better team in the advanced metrics, outperforming them by a significant margin at even strength.

Perhaps the biggest surprise in the series so far has been Tampa’s inability to generate quality chances 5 on 5. The Lightning have produced only 2.89 expected goals at even strength, while conceding 3.38 expected goals. They’ve racked up just 7 high danger scoring chances during 5 on 5 play, compared to 18 by the Habs, and should consider themselves lucky be tied 1-1 heading into tonight.

Another point of concern for Tampa is their inability to stay out of the penalty box, an issue that plagued them during the regular season. The Lightning led the NHL in penalty minutes this year, and have given Montreal 9 powerplay opportunities through two games. The Lightning have killed off just 55.6% of those penalties, which is the second worst PK percentage in the NHL Playoff Bracket.

Finally, there’s the play of Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Big Cat has looked nothing like a high end goaltender so far, posting an .870 save percentage and 2.69 GAA. He’s saved only 0.22 goals above expectation, which simply isn’t going to be good enough if Tampa wants to be taken seriously in the Stanley Cup odds.

The only thing saving the Lightning in this series so far, is that Habs goalie Jakub Dobes is in the negative when it comes to goals saved above expectation. Nevertheless, Dobes is still outperforming Vasilevskiy in save percentage, while the two are deadlocked in goals against average.

Game 3 Lightning vs Canadiens Player Props

• Lane Hutson Over 1.5 Shots (-135 at DraftKings )

Moving over to the NHL props market, where I’m betting Lane Hutson to exceed 1.5 shots on goal tonight. The captain of the Habs powerplay has fired 8 pucks on the Big Cat so far, beating him once. Hutson leads all Montreal skaters in ice time by 10 minutes, and is tied with Juraj Slafkovsky for the team lead with 15 shot attempts.

Game 3 Lightning vs Canadiens Odds

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As for the Game 3 Lightning vs Canadiens odds, you’ll need access to DraftKings tonight if you want to tail my picks and get the best price. DK is one of the few books to offer plus-money odds on Montreal to win outright, while their price on Hutson’s shots prop is 15 cents lower than the rest of the market.

If you want to bet the Lightning or the under, make sure you visit Bet365. Their 6-goal total is half a goal higher than consensus, while their -120 odds on Tampa to win is the most favorable line in market.