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Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 5 Odds and Picks

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NHL Hockey

May 9, 2022 · 10:36 AM PDT

Tampa Bay Lightning goal celebration
May 8, 2022; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning left wing Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (41) celebrates with teammates as he scores a goal during the first period of game four of the first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Toronto Maple Leafs at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Lightning vs Maple Leafs odds favor Toronto as -130 moneyline favorites in Game 5 on Tuesday (7:30pm ET)
  • Tampa evened the best-of-7 series at 2 with a 7-3 victory in Game 4
  • Read below for the Game 5 Lightning vs Maple Leafs odds, analysis and betting prediction

If Leafs Nation was being honest with themselves they probably should have seen Toronto’s Game 4 letdown coming. The Maple Leafs completely no-showed on Sunday night in Tampa, allowing the defending champs to cruise to a 7-3 victory and even the series at 2.

The two teams head back to Toronto now for Game 5, and oddsmakers are expecting the blue and white to bounce back.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Odds

Team Puck Line Total Moneyline
Tampa Bay Lightning +1.5 (-235) O 6.5 (-120) +110
Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 (+190) U 6.5 (+100) -130

Odds as of May 9th at Barstool Sportsbook.



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Toronto opened up as -130 moneyline favorites, in a contest that features a total of 6.5. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30pm ET at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON, with ESPN2 providing the broadcast coverage.

As for the series market, the Leafs remain the favorite but their price has been lengthened from -260 to -125 to advance to the conference semis.

Toronto remains a top-three contender in the Stanley Cup odds +900, while the Lightning are now down to 12-1 to three-peat.

Tampa Bay vs Toronto NHL Betting Analysis

It took just one game for Leafs goalie Jack Campbell to go from hero to zero. Campbell allowed the first shot he saw in Game 4 to get past him, and before the contest was even 8 minutes old, Tampa was up 3-0.

The Lightning extended the lead to 5-0 early in the second before Campbell was pulled, marking the second time this season he’s allowed at least five goals versus the Lightning.

The Leafs did manage to cut the deficit to 5-2 halfway through the third period, but a pair of empty net goals by Tampa sealed the victory.

After failing to failing to score in the first three games of the series, 100-point man Steven Stamkos finally got on the board in Game 4, while the rest of the Lightning’s big guns made solid contributions as well.

Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Victor Hedman combined for six points, while top-four Vezina Trophy odds contender Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 22 shots.

As for Toronto’s top stars, it was another underwhelming performance. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Jonathan Tavares combined for just two assists, giving the trio a mere three points total in Games 3 and 4. Matthews, the top contender in the Hart Trophy odds, hasn’t scored since Game 1, while Tavares has only a single helper all series.

If the Leafs don’t start getting more production from those three, there’s little chance they can outlast the two-time reigning champs in a seven game series.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Pick

Toronto has bowed out in the opening round of the playoffs in each of the past five seasons. In three of the last four years, they’ve lost in Game 7, while in 2020 they lost in the final game of a five-game series. At this point, betting Tampa to win the series in seven games at +310 is awfully tempting.

If recent history is any indication, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Leafs take Game 5 to go up 3-2, setting their fans up for maximum heartbreak once again. While that is certainly on the table, the numbers suggest the Lightning have been the better team all series.

Tampa once again controlled the 5-on-5 play in Game 4, earning a 55% to 45% advantage in Corsi. That marks the third time in four games they’ve had the better even strength numbers, and they also produced three more high dangers scoring chances than Toronto.

For the series, the Lightning have produced 14 more high danger scoring chances than the Leafs, while posting a better expected goals for number as well. They have the advantage on the backend, both between the pipes and on the blueline, and at the moment their top scoring threats are outproducing Toronto’s.

This line should probably be closer to a pick’em, especially given the fact that Tampa is 8-5 away from home in their last 13 road playoff games. Give me the plus-money value on the champs.

Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline (+110)

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