Lightning vs Bruins Odds & Picks – Prediction for Saturday Afternoon Hockey

• The Boston Bruins are -165 home favorites as they play host to the Tampa Bay Lightning in NHL action on Saturday, March 25
• Boston is holding a 2-1 edge in the season series between these Atlantic Division rivals
• The Bruins are also showing a 2-0-1 advantage over Tampa Bay in the the last three games played at Boston

A potential second-round matchup in the Stanley Cup playoffs is on tap as the Boston Bruins (55-11-5) play host to their Atlantic Division rivals the Tampa Bay Lightning (42-25-6). The Bruins are leading the division, while the Lightning currently occupy third place in the Atlantic.

Boston is the +160 favorite to win the East in the NHL Conference odds. Tampa Bay is the three-time defending Eastern Conference champions.

Oddsmakers are setting the Bruins as -165 home favorites in this game. Boston is an NHL-best 29-3-3 at home this season.

Lightning vs Bruins Odds

The Bruins are 5-0 straight up in the last five games and 3-0 SU in their past three home games. Tampa Bay is 1-2-0 SU in the last three visits to Boston.

Puck drop is set for 1:00pm ET on Saturday, March 25 at TD Garden. Americans can watch the game via the NHL Network. Canadians can catch the action on Sportsnet.

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In the NHL public betting splits, there’s little doubt about which team the people are backing. Boston is drawing massive action on both the spread and moneyline splits. The Bruins are getting 97% of handle and 82% of bets from spread players. The moneyline wagers are also almost exclusively for Boston, at 96% of handle and 89% of bets.

There’s far less certainty regarding the total of six goals. The under is taking 56% of handle. However, the over is most popular with 61% of bettors. The over has hit in four of Tampa Bay’s last five games. Then again, the under was the winning play on five of the last six times the Lightning visited Boston.

Boston is the +260 chalk in the Stanley Cup odds. The Lightning are the co-eighth betting choice to lift Lord Stanley’s mug, set at odds of +1200.

Boston’s Depth Is Showing

He’s not the first name that comes to mind, but over the last five games, forward Jake DeBrusk is leading the Bruins in goals (4), points (7) and plus-minus (+8). Backup goalie Jeremy Swayman is 3-0 with two shutouts over his last three starts. Favored in the Vezina Trophy odds, Linus Ullmark is 10-1 over his last 11 starts.

Tyler Bertuzzi's centering pass deflects home off a defender, opening up the scoring for the Bruins!#NHLBruins pic.twitter.com/AJa4T3PWPZ

— InHale Sports (@InHaleSport) March 23, 2023

In the last game, forward Tyler Bertuzzi netted his first goal for the Bruins since he was acquired earlier this month in a trade with Detroit. David Pastrnak sits one away from the magical 50 plateau with a career-high 49 goals.

Boston has kept rolling despite a number of serious injuries. Left-wingers Nick Foligno and Taylor Hall and defenseman Derek Forbort are all out with lower-body ailments. Forward AJ Greer was handed a one-game suspension by NHL Player Safety. He was assessed a cross-checking major and game misconduct in Thursday’s win over Montreal.

Lightning Mired In Mediocrity

Since the NHL All-Star break in early February, the Lightning are treading water at 10-10-5.

"We fed everything they did and it's unfortunate. We're having a little tough stretch here, but it's all self-inflicted. I'm just not sure when they're going to learn, but they're learning tough lessons."#TBLvsOTT

— x – Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) March 24, 2023

They’ve been beaten by NHL bottom feeders Montreal and Chicago and on Thursday, allowed a season-high in goals against while losing 7-2 to Ottawa.

Lightning vs Bruins Recent Results

Only three NHL teams have committed more penalties than the 322 infractions assessed to the Lightning. That works out to 4.4 penalties per game. That’s not good when Tampa Bay’s penalty kill is operating at a 75.6% success rate since Feb. 6.

Lightning vs Bruins Pick & Prediction

Boston is 7-1 SU in the last eight games and 8-1 SU in the last nine contests against Eastern Conference opposition. The Bruins are also 4-0 against the puckline in the last four meetings with the Lightning.

Tampa Bay is carrying a three-game losing streak into this matchup with the Bruins. The Lightning are 11-10-1 against Atlantic Division opponents.

Pick: Boston Bruins ML (-165).