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Lightning vs Flames Odds and Pick – Tampa Bay Listed as Road Favorites in Thursday NHL Odds

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in NHL Hockey

Updated Mar 10, 2022 · 6:07 AM PST

Calgary Flames center Mikael Backlund carries the puck down the ice
Calgary Flames center Mikael Backlund (11) and Tampa Bay Lightning left wing Alex Killorn (17) chase a loose puck during the third period of an NHL hockey game Thursday, Jan. 6, 2022, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)
  • The Tampa Bay Lightning visit the Calgary Flames on Thursday, March 10th
  • The Bolts are listed as slight road favorites in the Thursday NHL odds
  • Read below for Lightning vs Flames odds, predictions and pick

A busy Thursday night in the NHL features a heavyweight matchup between the Tampa Bay Lightning (37-13-6) and Calgary Flames (34-15-7) on March 10th. The puck drops at 9:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Saddledome.

The Lightning are listed as slight road favorites in the Thursday NHL odds. The total is set at 6 in a matchup that features two elite goalies in Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jacob Markstrom.

Let’s take a look at the Lightning vs Flames odds and find the NHL best bet for Thursday’s game.

Lightning vs Flames Odds

Game Time (ET) Team Puck Line Total Moneyline
Thursday Mar. 10 Tampa Bay Lightning +1.5 (+205) O 6 (-133) -117
9:00 PM ET Calgary Flames -1.5 (-250) U 6 (-108) -104

Odds as of Mar. 9th at Barstool Sportsbook.

 

Tampa Bay is listed on the puck line at +205 odds, while Calgary is -250 to keep the game within two goals. The Bolts’ -117 moneyline price means they have a 53.9% implied probability to win the game.

Bolts Favored on Road in Thursday NHL Odds

Tampa Bay is slightly favored to beat Calgary at Scotiabank Saddledome in the Thursday NHL odds. The Lightning have been rolling, posting a 7-3-0 record in their past 10 games. Jon Cooper’s team is currently the second-favorite in the 2022 Stanley Cup odds.

Although the Lightning have only lost three times since the start of February, one of those defeats was a 7-4 loss to Winnipeg on Tuesday. Star goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy had a rare off night, allowing five goals on 31 shots (.839 SV%). The betting favorite until late November, Vasilevskiy has slipped into a (distant) tie for third in the Vezina Trophy odds.

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The Bolts are great at bouncing back after losses, which is why they’re still favored over a talented Calgary team. Tampa Bay has only lost back-to-back games twice all year, with the last occurrence taking place in January. Furthermore, the Lightning are 18-8-2 on the road this season.

Aside from one of the NHL’s top goalies in Vasilevskiy, the Bolts are loaded with firepower. Forwards Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov, plus defenseman Victor Hedman are all producing at around a point-per-game rate in 2021-22.

Flames Betting Analysis as Home Underdogs

Calgary is listed as -102 moneyline underdogs against the Lightning, which means they have a 50.8% implied probability of winning. The Flames have been just as hot or even hotter than the Lightning of late, posting a 7-2-1 record in their past 10 contests.

There are a few factors in play with Calgary’s underdog price versus the Lightning. Firstly, the Flames are only 16-5-5 at Scotiabank Saddledome this season – good, but not invincible. Secondly, leading scorer Johnny Gaudreau had a scary collision with Capitals’ Tom Wilson on Tuesday.

All signs are pointing to Gaudreau playing against Tampa Bay, but it’s no guarantee he didn’t suffer a minor injury that isn’t being disclosed. Luckily, the Flames have plenty of offensive depth either way. Calgary is averaging 3.48 goals per game, which is fifth-best in the NHL.

The big reason you want to consider an underdog wager on Calgary is because they have a goalie who can duel with Vasilevskiy. Thursday’s projected starting NHL goalies sets up a great goalie duel in Lightning vs Flames.

Lightning vs Flames Projected Starting Goalies

Team Goalie Record SV% GAA SO
Lightning Andrei Vasilevskiy 30-10-4 .918 2.39 2
Flames Jacob Markstrom 26-11-6 .926 2.14 8

Diving deeper into advanced numbers, Markstrom has also saved more goals above average (13.28 GSAA) than Vasilevskiy (11.60 GSAA).

Lightning vs Flames Pick & Prediction

Both these teams are going to be hungry for a win, with Tampa coming off an ugly loss to Winnipeg and Calgary losing 5-4 to Washington on Tuesday. These teams already played once this season, with the Bolts winning 4-1. Tampa Bay has taken five straight meetings with Calgary.

While Tampa has dominated this rivalry, Calgary has been the better team recently according to several metrics. The Flames are controlling more puck possession and generating more high-quality chances. Tampa Bay has scored well above their expected goals total this past month.

Lightning vs Flames Recent Results

Date Home-Away Moneyline Puck Line Total
01/06/2022 TBL 4 – CGY 1 TBL TBL Under
02/29/2020 TBL 4 – CGY 3 TBL CGY Over
02/12/2019 TBL 6 – CGY 3 TBL TBL Over
12/20/2018 CGY 4 – TBL 5 SO TBL CGY Over
02/01/2018 CGY 4 – TBL 7 TBL TBL Over

As great as Tampa Bay’s Vasilevskiy can be, he’s allowed at least three goals in three straights starts. Markstrom, meanwhile, is coming off a 26-save win over Montreal in which he allowed one goal. Here are some other betting trends to keep in mind for Lightning vs Flames:

  • Flames are 12-2 in their last 14 home games
  • Lightning are 4-1 in their last 5 road games
  • Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Goaltending has cost Calgary in the past versus Tampa Bay, but this will be Markstrom’s  first start against the Bolts since arriving in Cowtown. An elite starting goalie and great scoring depth gives the Flames home underdog value versus the Lightning.

Canada online sports betting markets list Calgary moneyline at -104 in the Thursday NHL odds at Barstool Sportsbook. Take the Flames to win outright.

Pick: Flames ML (-104)

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