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Maple Leafs vs Senators Game 3 Odds, Prediction & How to Watch (Apr. 23)

Darren Cooper

By Darren Cooper in NHL Hockey

Published:


Apr 22, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) battles for the puck with Ottawa Senators forward Shane Pinto (12) in the third period in game two of the first round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
  • The Battle of Ontario shifts to Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa for Game 3 between the Senators and Maple Leafs Thursday night.
  • Toronto leads the series 2-0 but is the underdog Thursday night against the Senators.
  • The mood in this series is about to change and I have your prediction, and look at the best odds for Maple Leafs vs Senators tonight

Toronto (42-42 ATS) goes on the road to hostile Ottawa (36-48 ATS) with a 2-0 lead in their first-round NHL playoff series.

The Leafs have won seven games in a row and are an incredible 4-7 on the power play in this series.

I see another tough game between these two rivals. Ottawa will be playing its first home playoff game since 2017. I have your prediction and guide to the best odds.

Maple Leafs vs Senators Prediction

  • Pick: Sens Puck Line -1.5 (+190)
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My prediction is that Ottawa comes through with a must-win on Thursday night and covers the 1.5 puck line. Toronto dominated Game 1 and won 6-2, but Game 2 was a dogfight. I saw Ottawa take control in the second period and dominate until losing in overtime. Hey, that happens in playoff hockey.

Senators goalie Linus Ullmark has given up nine goals in the first two games, but the former Vezina Trophy winner is too good to play another bad game. Ottawa will get a huge boost from a bonkers home crowd, where they went 27-11-3 this season and outplay the Leafs.

I also love the over total tonight. You’ve got some serious offensive firepower in this series with Mitch Marner (102 points) and William Nylander (45 goals) for Toronto. Ottawa star Brady Tkachuk is making his playoff debut and is settling in. I liked how he played in Game 2 with a team-high five shots.

History is also against the Leafs. The last time Toronto had a 2-0 lead in a series was 2002 against the Islanders. That series went seven games. I predict we’re in this for the long haul.

Maple Leafs vs Senators Odds

Bet TypeMaple LeafsSenators
Puck Line+1.5 (-265)-1.5 (+215)
Moneyline-102-118
TotalO 5.5 (-118)U 5.5 (-102)

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The Senators enter tonight as 1.5-goal favorite, with the total at 5.5. Each of the Senators last four home games have hit the over. Game 1 of the series also went over. I definitely like the over tonight.

Toronto has failed to cover the puck line in each of its last 11 games in Ottawa after a win at home. That tells me there’s some travel fatigue here.

Toronto’s moneyline is pretty good at DraftKings at -105. For Ottawa, the moneyline total is a consistent -115 almost everywhere you look except FanDuel.

Maple Leafs vs Senators How to Watch

Puck Drop: 7 p.m.

Location: Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa

TV Channel: ESPN, CBC

Streaming Services: ESPN+

Maple Leafs vs Senators Head to Head

Toronto Maple LeafsOttawa Senators
Home Record29-13-127-11-3
Road Record25-13-318-20-5
Puck Line41-4337-47
Over/Under39-41-436-40-8
Streak7 wins1 OT Loss
Average Goals for3.32.9
Average Goals against2.82.9
Average Winning Margin2.12.1
Average Losing Margin2.42.3
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Darren Cooper

Darren has been covering the world of sports since 1998. His grandfather had a special 'system' to bet on the ponies, but the secrets of that system have been lost to time. He loves betting the under, thinks homefield advantage is worth more than 3 points nowadays and always stays within his means.

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