Odds Ovechkin Breaks Gretzky’s Goal Record in 2024-25

• You can bet on whether or not Alex Ovechkin will break Wayne Gretzky’s goal record this season
• Ovechkin needs 16 goals in the Capitals’ final 27 games to accomplish the historic feat
• See the odds for Ovechkin breaking the record below, plus betting analysis

When Wayne Gretzky retired, it seemed inconceivable that someone would ever break his goal-scoring record. 26 years later, it’s no longer a matter of if, but when. That’s because Alex Ovechkin simply can’t stop scoring goals. It’s been his M.O. since he entered the league in 2005, and now the Great Eight is on pace to make history in April.

Odds Ovechkin Breaks Gretzky’s Record this Season

Ovechkin is 16 goals away from breaking Gretzky’s mark of 894. Online sportsbooks don’t believe it will happen this season, despite Ovy’s incredible efficiency so far. He’s currently a +145 underdog to set the record, and a -190 favorite to fall short.

The Capitals have 27 games remaining, which is more than enough if you believe Ovechkin can hold his current pace.

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History Awaits the Great Eight

Through 39 games, Ovechkin has lit the lamp 26 times. He suffered a broken leg in November that cost him 16 games, otherwise, there would be little doubt that he’d set the record this season. The injury hasn’t slowed him down, however, as he’s on pace for his 14th 40+ goal season.

Ovy is averaging 0.67 goals per game in 2024-25. That pace has him breaking Gretzky’s mark on April 12th versus the Blue Jackets, barring an injury setback. His current goals per game average is slightly higher than his career mark (0.6), but even if we adjust his efficiency to match that number, he’ll still accomplish the feat.

Ovechkin entered play this past weekend with goals in four straight. He’s no longer a Hart Trophy odds contender, but he’s still a goal-scoring savant. Ovy has scored on 19% of his shots this season, up from 11.4% a season ago. His career shooting percentage is 13%, and while you could point to regression coming, it could also be a testament to his hockey smarts.

He’s being more selective with shots, sticking to areas of the ice where he excels. That’s primarily one-timers off the left wing, as his quick release is still among the best in the game. It also doesn’t hurt that Washington is loaded. They project to be one of the top scoring teams every night they play in the NHL odds. Opposing teams can’t simply game plan to shut him down, or the extra talent around him will make them pay.

Ovy already holds the record for most shots on goal and most goalies scored on. It’s only a matter of time before he becomes the greatest goal scorer of all-time. Given his current pace, and the plus-money price we’re getting, it’s prudent to bet on him breaking the record this season.

The Powerplay King

You can also bet on the game play situation of Ovechkin’s record-breaking goal. Even strength, powerplay, and shorthanded are the options, while the bet will be void if he fails to break Gretzky’s mark this season.

Method of Ovechkin’s 895th NHL Goal

Right off the bat, we can throw out shorthanded. Ovechkin doesn’t kill penalties and has just five career shorthanded goals. He hasn’t buried a shorty since the 2021-22 campaign, and three of his five career shorthanded goals came in his rookie season.

Even strength as the favorite makes sense, but powerplay at +150 odds is too good to pass up. Ovechkin has an NHL record 318 powerplay goals. 201 of them have come from inside the left circle or above it, while 187 have been on one-timers.

From the moment he scores number 894, you have to assume he plays the majority of every powerplay moving forward. He’ll park himself at the left circle, and the Caps won’t stop feeding him until he surpasses Gretzky.