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Penguins Massive -200 Favorites Over Canadiens in Opening Best-of-Five Series Odds

Jordan Horrobin

by Jordan Horrobin in NHL Hockey

Updated Mar 18, 2021 · 1:37 PM PDT

Alex Ovechkin skating in warmups without helmet on
Washington Capitals' Alex Ovechkin (8) warms up before an NHL hockey game against the Pittsburgh Penguins, Sunday, Feb. 14, 2021, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)
  • In the NHL’s 24-team playoff, the No. 5 Penguins and No. 12 Canadiens will face off in a best-of-five series in the qualifying round
  • Pittsburgh’s core has won three Stanley Cups, including back to back in 2016 and 2017
  • Pittsburgh won two of the three meetings with Montreal this season

Hockey is back. Almost. Sort of. NHL commissioner Gary Bettman made an announcement Tuesday that, if the 2019-20 season is able to move forward, it will do so as a 24-team playoff tournament.

That’s exciting news for hockey fans everywhere, perhaps most of all in Montreal, whose Canadiens would’ve certainly missed the traditional 16-team playoff in a normal season.

Their reward? A date with the loaded Pittsburgh Penguins, who’ve had time to get healthy and are seeing much shorter 2020 Stanley Cup odds than Montreal.

Here’s a look at the odds, which are unsurprisingly stacked in Pittsburgh’s favor.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Montreal Canadiens Series Odds

Team Series Price
Pittsburgh -200
Montreal +170

Odds as of  May 27th.

So, just take Pittsburgh, right? Is it that easy? Let’s review some of the key storylines of this series to find out.

How They Fared This Season

Montreal and Pittsburgh played three times this year and here were the results: 4-1 win for Montreal, 3-2 win (OT) for Pittsburgh, 4-1 win for Pittsburgh.

It might look like these results largely cancel out, but it’s worth noting that Penguins captain (and top-line center, and future Hall of Famer) Sidney Crosby missed the first game due to injury. That certainly played a factor in the 4-1 loss.

The Penguins dominated possession in two of the games (with Corsi percentages of 57.4 and 59.8). Oddly enough, the game in which the Canadiens corralled 55.8 percent of shot attempts resulted in a 4-1 win for the Penguins.

Guentzel Set To Return

The Penguins’ star-studded offense lost one of its stars in late December, when forward Jake Guentzel underwent season-ending shoulder surgery.

Well … it was season-ending in the context of a normal season. Now, he’s on pace to return. The timeline for Guentzel’s recovery was four to six months. Given that training camps aren’t anticipated to begin until July, he will have made it through that recovery period.

How important is Guentzel? Well, he has 60 goals and 119 points in 121 games over the past two seasons. Oh, and he has 43 points in 41 career playoff games. So, he’s exceptionally important, and Pittsburgh will be thrilled to get him back, adding him on Crosby’s wing.

Canadiens Don’t Belong

This isn’t hyperbole: no team fitted for this 24-team playoff format was less deserving of a spot than the Montreal Canadiens.

They rank 24th in points (71) and points percentage (.500) and were 10 points out of a traditional playoff spot (i.e. eighth in the East) with only 11 games to play.

Montreal is an analytics darling that didn’t put things together this year. They ranked second in the NHL in 5-on-5 Corsi percentage (54.43) and expected goals percentage (54.01). But they lost 13 of 16 one-goal games and were minus-18 in third period scoring. They also went 0-4 against the last-place Red Wings.

Perhaps they’ll adapt a “no one expected us to be here” mentality, but is that enough?

Decision Time

Look, it’s important to understand that a best-of-five series allows for more variability (read: chaos) than a standard best-of-seven. Could future Hall of Fame goalie Carey Price get hot for Montreal and steal the series? Yes, that could happen.

But the better team all season long has been the Penguins. They were deeply entrenched in the regular playoff picture, and now they’ll be even more dangerous with Guentzel back in the fold (not to mention guys like Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang who’ve been here all along).

Pittsburgh has a stronger, more skilled, more experienced and more well-rounded team. That’s what you should bank on in a situation like this.

Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins (-200)

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