- Beto O’Rourke very nearly beat Ted Cruz in the Texas Senate race
- He’s got a bright future in the Democratic party
- Does that make him a good bet for 2020?
Beto O’Rourke came within a hair’s breadth of beating Republican Ted Cruz in the Texas Senate race last night, a race that was far tighter than anyone would have predicted a year ago.
That performance helped him shoot up the odds sheet for the 2020 Democratic nomination, although bettors should be a little skeptical.
2020 Democratic Candidate Odds
You can see more at the 2020 Presidential Election Odds Tracker. Here’s the Democratic Nominee odds at Bovada:
|Candidate||Bovada Odds to be Democratic Nominee 2020|
That’s down from an average of +2000 from before last night, a huge jump up the odds sheet.
And what’s even more shocking are his average odds to win the 2020 Presidential Election, which now sit at +1100.
2020 US Presidential Election Odds
Is Beto a Good Bet?
Unfortunately, he’s not a good bet at these odds.
Does Beto O’Rourke have a bright future in the Democratic party? Absolutely.
He mobilized a huge operation in Texas, made a name for himself nationally, and brought a deep red state inches from handing Ted Cruz his 12th or 14th biggest embarrassment of the past two years.
If the Democrats manage this right (that’s a big “if”) he’ll be their biggest asset in Texas for decades. He even got an endorsement from Jim Carey (?):
My congratulations to the record numbers of women who rose to the challenge of restoring the balance. Also last night a Star was born: Beto O’Rourke: a smart and decent guy who very nearly turned Texas blue. There are great things in store for this budding Mr. Smith. pic.twitter.com/M0Dd3zS1ph
— Jim Carrey (@JimCarrey) November 7, 2018
That doesn’t mean he’ll be the nominee in 2020, however, and it certainly doesn’t mean that he should get near-favorite odds.
Bernie Sanders is still the most popular Senator in the US (and, by some measures, the most popular politician), Joe Biden is still eyeing a bid, and Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren have both got a lot more on a resume than “lost an election to Ted Cruz.”
Listing Beto at Bernie’s odds is a tactic by the sports betting sites to hoover up some money after Beto’s star reached its peak. It’s likely that he’ll come back in a big way, but now that Beto’s off the candidate’s bus, he likely won’t be in the spotlight anymore.