Biden Gaining Ground on Kamala Harris in 2020 Democratic Nominee Odds

• Joe Biden is touring the Midwest, testing the political waters for 2020
• His odds to become the Democratic nominee have improved, placing him behind only Kamala Harris
• Is there value in picking the former Vice President?

“I haven’t made up my mind. I will at the beginning of next year. But I don’t know.”

That was Joe Biden’s response when he was recently asked if he’ll run in 2020. As expected, the former Vice President refused to commit to anything. But make no mistake, the man intends to run.

2020 Democratic Nominee Average Odds

His average odds to be the Democratic nominee in 2020 have shortened significantly in recent weeks, sliding from +600 to +530. He is second only to Kamala Harris, who is the clear front runner at +450. His odds of becoming the next President also improved from +1500 to +1400 over the last of two weeks.

But is there any value in picking old man Biden to win in 2020?

2020 Democratic Nominee Odds

Joe Biden started the year at +3300 odds to be the Democratic nominee, making him a long-odds contender. But over the last few months he’s managed to claw his way to the top of the list. He’s currently touring around the Midwest, stumping for fellow Democrats while boosting his own profile.

The message he wants to send is clear: He does well in all those folksy Midwestern states. You know, the ones that ultimately cost Hillary the election in 2016. Biden represents a return to normalcy. He’s a known quantity and a party insider. He’s the safe option.

But is that what the Democrats want right now?

The energy within the Democratic party is coming from the progressive wing and from women. Many of the front-runners are young, fresh faces — Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, and of course, Kamala Harris. The others are progressive champions, like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Biden is the only front-runner who could be labeled an “establishment” candidate.

Biden is 75 years old and will be close to 78 by the time the 2020 election rolls around. He’s already run for President twice — first in 1988 and then in 2008 — and decided against running in 2016. His moment may have already passed him by.

While it’s true that Biden could bring back Obama voters who strayed in 2016, he just doesn’t connect with the new face of the Democratic party.

With experience comes baggage, and Biden carries a ton of both. He has a long list of accomplishments as a Senator and VP, but there are also a few ghosts that could come back to haunt him. His treatment of Anita Hill during the Clarence Thomas hearings drew criticism from women’s rights group at the time, and it looks even worse now in light of the #MeToo movement.

While it’s true that Biden could bring back Obama voters who strayed in 2016, he just doesn’t connect with the new face of the Democratic party. There’s been a lot of media attention on him recently, which partially explains why his stock is currently on the rise, but it looks like the value picks are still with the young rising stars within the party. There are quite a few to choose from: Harris, Gillibrand, Booker, O’Rourke, Gabbard, Castro, etc.

Biden would have been a great pick in the lead up to the 2016 election, but now it looks like the Democratic base is eager for a fresh face.