Biden’s Election Odds Improve for the First Time Since July 27; Trump Fades Slightly

• Democratic presidential hopeful Joe Biden saw his odds improve for the first time in weeks
• The former Vice President is now going off at -109, compared to -106 last week
• Read below for analysis on the 2020 US Presidential Election odds

While the movement is ever-so-slight, the 2020 U.S. presidential election odds have changed over the last week. Democratic candidate Joe Biden was going off at -106 on August 31st, but the former Vice President is now at -109. Meanwhile, incumbent President Trump saw his odds notch down a tick — moving from -117 to -116. Is the small difference irrelevant? Or is the change a harbinger of things to come?

2020 US Presidential Election Odds

It’s the first time since July 27th that Biden’s odds have improved. The 77-year-old was going off at -175 six weeks ago — before he picked Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate and the respective party conventions. During that same time, President Trump’s odds have improved. He was a +149 underdog to Biden in late July and now stands as a slight favorite at -116. The 74-year-old became a slight favorite after the Republican National Convention, going off at -110 on August 28th. You can see how the two candidates’ odds have evolved on our presidential election odds tracker.

What should we make of these latest movements? Let’s investigate and try to figure out some answers.

‘Losers’ and ‘Suckers’

There are two things President Trump has never seen himself as: a loser and a sucker. But it’s those two words — allegedly uttered by the president two years ago during a visit to France commemorating the 100th anniversary of the battle at Belleau Wood during World War I — that have been in the news late this week following a sensational article in The Atlantic.

Of course, the President Trump has strongly denied the comments.

But this is the same person who questioned the status of late Senator John McCain five years ago. McCain spent more than five years as a POW during the Vietnam War.

“He’s not a war hero,” Trump said in 2015 while running for the Republican nomination for president. “I like people who weren’t captured.”

Whether he said it or not, the damage may be done for the president. Veterans and military families voting in swing states, where even a small shift could prove decisive, don’t take kindly to being disparaged — especially by the Commander-in-chief.

Social Justice Movement

Another factor that could derail Trump’s path to four more years at the White House — and embolden Biden’s campaign — is how the candidates handle the ongoing social justice movement. Calls for police reform and racial equality have been raging — amid the coronavirus pandemic — across the United States ever since George Floyd died in police custody May 25th.

The latest incident involving a Black man and law enforcement came August 23rd, when Jacob Blake was shot seven times by police in Kenosha, Wisconsin. President Trump visited the city this past Tuesday, going against the wishes of officials requesting he stay away. He did not visit with Blake’s family, claiming they wanted lawyers involved.

Trump’s visit to the swing state marked another attempt to continue his campaign of linking Democrat-run cities and states to violence ahead of the November election in an attempt to paint himself as voters’ candidate for law and order. But that message may be falling on deaf ears when it comes to voters.

Vaccine Hail Mary

The overriding issue the nation continues to face is COVID-19. The CDC set a letter to governors of all 50 states recently to be ready for distribution of a vaccine for the virus November 1st — two days before Election Day. Coincidence? Democratic vice presidential nominee Sen. Kamala Harris isn’t buying it.

Sen. Kamala Harris tells @DanaBashCNN she would not trust Donald Trump on a coronavirus vaccine, but adds she "would trust the word of public health experts and scientists," including Dr. Anthony Fauci. #CNNSOTU

Watch the full interview on @CNN on Sunday at 9 a.m. ET. pic.twitter.com/hxXVyQ0AQg

— State of the Union (@CNNSotu) September 5, 2020

One of the biggest issues facing voters — whether they vote in-person or by mail-in ballot (and that’s fodder for another post!) — is which candidate do they trust more to get the country through the pandemic to some sense of normalcy. And while a coronavirus vaccine is critical to that return, it’s not the only thing.

President Trump has reportedly pressured administration health officials to accelerate the vaccine’s development in an effort to convince voters of an impending end to the pandemic . A number of sources familiar with the internal workings told CNN the responsibility feels immense and the environment is akin to that of a pressure cooker.

As stories like this continue to emerge, President Trump’s already questionable veracity on numerous topics that hit close to home for voters will continue to be in the spotlight. And I predict they will continue to strengthen Biden’s campaign.