Donald Trump’s Impeachment Odds Are the Longest They’ve Been Since November

• It’s looking increasingly unlikely that Donald Trump will be impeached before the end of his first term in office
• The House can begin impeachment proceedings, but the Republican-controlled Senate has to back it
• Democrats are presently divided on impeachment

The rancor in politics in the United States has been very bitter since Donald Trump was elected as the 45th President of the United States of America. Impeachment talks started from Day 1, but as we approach the middle of 2019 – his third year in office – impeachments odds are the longest they’ve been since November. What’s the best bet with this prop?

Will Donald Trump Be Impeached By the House in His First Term?

*Odds taken 06/27/19

Actual Impeachment Unlikely

The first thing we have to realize is that it’s virtually impossible for Trump to be fully impeached in his first term. How it works is the House can begin proceedings. If they vote to impeach him, then the Senate also has to back it. The Senate is controlled by Republicans, so they can kill it there.

Prop Focuses on the House

The second thing to note here is that this prop focuses solely on the House impeaching him. He doesn’t have to be fully impeached for you to win your bet, so that’s important to note. The House is controlled by Democrats – they have the majority – so they can pull the trigger at any point.

Dems Have Been Uncertain About Impeachment

Impeachment is a tricky road to go down, which is why Democrats can’t get on the same page. Many like Maxine Waters and Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez want him to be impeached immediately. Many others – like Nancy Pelosi, who is the Speaker of the House – has opted not to push forward.

The challenge is that impeachment can sometimes look bad politically. In other words, the Democrats are trying to win the 2020 election. If they start impeachment proceedings, which we know can’t fully impeach the president, the majority of the voting public is going to view them as wasting public resources.

Sure, many people don’t like President Trump, but at the same time is it better to try to remove him from office in a way that we know won’t work? Or is it better to try and work with him to find a solution on the border crisis, on an infrastructure bill, or something else?

Impeachment Helped Bill Clinton

Remember that Bill Clinton was impeached in the late 1990’s and at that time, a lot of Republicans felt like it was a big win. They were heading for midterms right after it happened and House Speaker Newt Gingrich predicted a 20-30 seat gain at the time. Instead, the voters sent a clear message as the Democrats were the ones who actually gained five seats – a shocking result.

That’s the concern here for Democrats. They don’t want to help Trump, and while impeachment looks good in some ways, it could backfire – as history has shown.

Mueller’s Testimony Could Be the Key

To start, I’d bet against impeachment. I don’t see this as a political win for the Democrats – no matter how much they want it. Their best bet is to win the election in 2020.

At the same time, the key to betting this prop could be when Robert Mueller testifies in a few weeks. He’ll finally get a chance to speak to the public. If he makes it clear that he believes the President committed crimes, the House could be pressured to introduce articles of impeachment.

What’s more likely to happen, though, is that Mueller doesn’t really say much more than what was already in his report. In that case, I’d expect them to hold off on impeaching him and strictly putting all of their energy into winning the election.

Pick: No (-350)