US President Donald Trump Impeachment Odds Tracker
- The first section on this page was dedicated to the odds of Donald Trump being convicted in the Senate following his second impeachment for incitement of insurrection
- The second section on this page pertained to the first impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump in 2020
- See how the odds fluctuated with every new scandal and bombshell
The graph below tracked the betting market on President Trump being convicted in the Senate following his second impeachment in 2021. The Democrats needed 17 Republican Senators to vote to impeach in order to reach the two-thirds majority required to convict. On February 13th, the Senate voted 57-43 to convict – with seven Republicans siding with the Democrats – which fell ten votes short of the necessary two-thirds.
Donald Trump Impeachment Conviction Odds (2021)
Odds Trump Is Convicted in the Senate
Odds as of Feb. 8, 2021.
Timeline of Events
- Feb. 13, 2021: Only seven Republicans voted to convict today, resulting in a 57-43 guilty/not-guilty split, ten votes shy of the requisite two-thirds.
- Feb. 10, 2021: A second vote on the constitutionality of the impeachment trial passed 56-44 with one additional Republican Senator siding with the Democrats (Bill Cassidy – LA). But the Democrats still need 11 more to vote to convict for Trump to be found guilty.
- Feb. 9, 2021: Odds have been taken down now that the trial is underway
- Feb. 8, 2021: On the eve of the trial, the conviction odds remain extremely long (+1115), though the implied probability has risen from 5% in late January to 8.23%.
- Jan. 28, 2021: The vast majority of GOP Senators have come out against impeachment, mostly on the grounds that the Senate is not permitted to hold a trial after Trump has left office. The betting market on impeachment heavily favors no conviction. “Yes” is at a paltry 5% implied probability.
- Jan. 13, 2021: The House of Representatives voted 223-197 in favor of impeaching the President (again). Ten Republicans voted in favor of impeachment. The trial in the Senate will commence sometime after President-elect Joe Biden is sworn in. Odds of Trump being convicted in the Senate have not been posted yet.
2020 Donald Trump Impeachment Odds
The graph above, which tracked President Trump’s odds of being impeached before the conclusion of his first term, was generated by averaging the odds from multiple online sources. It was updated regularly, generally following the biggest news stories and political developments.
- Jan. 24, 2020: As the Dems close their case in the impeachment trial, the odds of removal at are +1592. Long, but not as long as they were four days ago.
- Jan. 20, 2020: On the eve of the impeachment trial in the Senate, Trump’s odds to be removed are an extremely long +2500. Six weeks ago, they were as short as +550.
- Jan. 16, 2020: The Senate impeachment trial is set to begin on Tuesday, Jan. 21.
- Jan. 14, 2020: Now that Trump has been impeached, the sportsbooks have turned their attention to whether he’ll be removed from office by the Senate. The table below shows the current odds for removal. They are extremely long.
- Dec. 18, 2019: On the day of the vote, all sportsbooks have taken down their props on whether Trump will be impeached in the House.
- Dec. 17, 2019: With the vote impending in the House, the chances of impeachment remain well above 90% according to sportsbooks (-1100 odds).
- Dec. 13, 2019: The articles of impeachment were approved today and the vote will likely follow early next week.
- Dec. 10, 2019: The House Judiciary Committee drafted two articles of impeachment this morning. The vote to impeach could come as early as Thursday.
- Dec. 6, 2019: Only one sportsbooks still has plain old “impeachment” odds up, with the “Yes” at a hyper-shot -1450. All other sites have switched to an “impeached and removed” prop.
- Nov. 24, 2019: Each new witness is putting another nail in Trump’s impeachment coffin. The “yes” has shortened to -275 (73.3% chance).
- Nov. 19, 2019: Impeachment odds re-opened at -210 for the Yes and +155 for the No. That equates to a 67.7% chance of impeachment.
- Nov. 13, 2019: As public impeachment hearings begin, the odds on impeachment, alone, remain off the board.
- Nov. 1, 2019: Impeachment in the House is almost a foregone conclusion at this point. Sportsbooks no longer have odds up. The latest prop is on whether Trump will be impeached and removed from office.
- October 22, 2019: The odds of impeachment are at an all-time high (+100).
- October 15, 2019: Trump’s impeachment odds continue to get shorter during the Ukraine controversy, now sitting at +110.
- September 24, 2019: Nancy Pelosi has announced a formal impeachment inquiry of President Donald Trump; yet, his odds of being impeached still sit at +300
- June 27, 2019: The odds of Trump being impeached during his first term in office have gone down just days after the POTUS claimed that impeachment proceedings would help him retain the White House in 2020. Coincidence? We think not.
- June 5, 2019: Trump is still favored to finish his first term in office despite the fact that nearly 60 House Democrats have now called for the President to be impeached or for an impeachment inquiry to be initiated.
- November 23, 2018: The Mueller Investigation has taken another step towards Donald Trump. The latest addition to his list of potential cooperators is Jerome Corsi, a right wing conspiracy theorist with connections to Trump adviser Roger Stone.
- November 14, 2018: The Democrats are now closer than ever to being able to impeach Donald Trump after taking control of the House of Representatives in the US Midterm Elections.
- August 23, 2018: Former campaign manager Paul Manafort and former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen have both been found guilty of eight charges each and will likely face jail time unless they agree to cooperate with federal investigators and provide information that can be used to impeach the President.
Odds Trump Is Impeached and Removed
|Outcome||Odds at Sportsbook 1||Odds at Sportsbook 2||Odds at Sportsbook 3|
Odds as of Jan. 24, 2020.
US Presidents Who Have Been Impeached
|Andrew Johnson||1868||National Union|
Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were both impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, but were allowed to stay in office after being acquitted by the Senate.
Richard Nixon would almost certainly have been impeached in 1974 for his involvement in the Watergate affair, but chose to resign instead. He remains, to this day, the only US President to ever resign.