- Joe Biden continues to make gaffes on the campaign trail
- Kamala Harris has run a strong campaign but she’s not getting much love nationally
- Elizabeth Warren’s ideas are too progressive to earn her the win against President Trump…unless the economy tanks
After two waves of debates among the Democratic Party candidates, we’re starting to get a clearer picture of who can challenge Donald Trump for the Presidency in 2020. While we still don’t know who Trump will be up against, you can get a jump on the early lines and bet the matchups. Let’s see where there’s value.
2020 Trump Opponent Odds
|Opponent||‘Yes’ Odds at BetOnline||‘No’ Odds at BetOnline|
|Trump Faces And Defeats Joe Biden||-500||+400|
|Trump Faces And Defeats Pete Buttigieg||-5000||+2000|
|Trump Faces And Defeats Kamala Harris||-2500||+1400|
|Trump Faces And Defeats Bernie Sanders||-3300||+1600|
|Trump Faces And Defeats Elizabeth Warren||-1250||+800|
|Trump Faces And Defeats Andrew Yang||-5000||+2000|
*Odds from 10/08/19
Trump Beats Biden
Joe Biden seems like he has good potential to be the President of the United States … in theory. However, reality has proven to be a very different story.
Biden has been extremely sloppy since he announced his campaign with a plethora of problems. From the groping issues to getting smoked by Kamala Harris in the first debate to forgetting where last week’s mass shootings happened (when he was speaking about them).
The latest flub came up on Friday when he said that poor kids are just as bright as white kids. Although Biden is polling ahead of Trump in many head-to-head polls, he’s going to get smoked by Trump in a national election. Biden has looked old and faded, and he’s always struggled as a candidate. I wouldn’t bet him to either be the nominee or to beat Trump.
Harris can Beat Trump, but can She Get the Nomination?
One interesting contender for the crown is Kamala Harris. The California senator offers a generous +1400 payout if she can pull it off, but there are questions about whether she can earn the nomination.
Harris came out guns a blazing in the first debate and was immediately declared a star. Many betting sites put her side-by-side with Biden in terms of the odds to win the nomination. However, she didn’t get a huge bump (still polling at about 8.3% nationally) and she struggled in the second debate.
Harris, as a former prosecutor, is an excellent debater and she’ll take Trump to task on a number of things. She’ll be a very tough opponent for him. The question is: can she earn the nomination? In my view, it’s worth a play because Biden will continue to slip and that will open the door. I like her chances at +1400.
Warren Won’t Win
Elizabeth Warren has run a fantastic campaign so far. Between her and Sanders, she’s starting to be viewed as the top choice among young progressives. And as Biden slips, she’s been the one to benefit the most. She’s polling at 16.3% in Iowa and 15.5% nationally.
The challenge with Warren is that she’s viewed as a very left-wing candidate. She and Sanders have a lot of progressive ideas but she won’t do well nationally. As long as the economy is strong, there are going to be a lot of voters who opt for the status quo versus someone who will offer radical change.
Warren has said she’ll forgive student debt, be laxer on the southern border and present a number of other things that moderates democrats and independents won’t go for. As crude as Trump can be, he’ll win the election as long as the economy is strong and the opposing candidate is offering huge change.
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