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After Formal Impeachment Inquiry, Odds Still Heavily Favor President Trump Not Being Impeached

Donald Trump making a speech
Tuesday's announcement of a formal Impeachment inquiry into US President Donald Trump hasn't affected his odds to last a full term. Photo by Gage Skidmore (flickr) [CC License].
  • The Democratic-controlled House of Representatives announced Tuesday it was launching a formal Impeachment Inquiry into US President Donald Trump
  • Some sportsbooks still favor Trump to serve his full first term in the White House; while others say he will not be impeached
  • No US President has ever been removed from office via impeachment

Donald Trump’s long-anticipated impeachment finally got real on Tuesday. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi officially announced the launching of a formal impeachment inquiry into Trump, the 45th President of the United States.

The sportsbooks don’t seem to think it will happen. Trump is favored to serve out his full first term in the White House through 2020.

President Trump Impeachment & Re-Election Odds

Prop Yes Odds No Odds
Will President Trump be impeached? +300 -500
Will President Trump serve full first term? -400 +250
Will President Trump be re-elected for second term? -300 +200

*Odds taken on 09/25/19

In the most recent odds prior to Tuesday’s turn of events, taken in June, Trump’s impeachment  odds stood at +230.

Mayday, Mayday

The last time there were odds favoring Trump’s impeachment, was in May and the average odds of Trump being impeached stood at -190. Attorney-General William Barr was facing contempt charges over the Trump administration refusing to release the Mueller Report.

The Senate Intelligence Committee was preparing to subpoena Donald Trump Jr as part of the investigation into 2016 Russian election interference.

What’s Different This Time?

Calls for Trump’s impeachment began almost from the moment of his moving into the Oval Office in January 2017. All seemed to fall on deaf ears when it came to the Democratic leadership.

That was expected to change when the Dems regained control of the House via the 2018 midterm elections. But it didn’t.

What makes this a different scenario, one that the Democrats obviously believe can lead to Trump’s impeachment?

The decision stems from a US intelligence whistleblower who lodged a formal complaint about a phone call between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. During the July 25 phone conversation, Trump is alleged to have told Zelensky no less than eight times that he would withhold nearly $400 million in military aid to the Ukraine if they didn’t provide him with evidence to use against Joe Biden the current Democratic frontrunner for the 2020 Presidential nomination.

Biden’s son Hunter Biden served on the board of a Ukrainian energy company.

What Are the Next Steps?

The Trump adminstration has so far blocked Congressional access to the whistleblower’s official complaint. Tuesday, the Senate unanimously passed a resolution calling on the White House to turn over the complaint to Congress. Trump indicated he would release a transcript of the call with Zelensky.

The whistleblower, whose identity remains unknown, has requested to speak to the House and Senate Intelligence committees. Expectations are this will happen later this week.

How Impeachment Works

Trump will be the fourth President in US history face impeachment. None of the previous three ended up being impeached. Richard Nixon opted to resign the Presidency before facing impeachment.

Pelosi has indicated that there are currently six separate House committees investigating Trump for potentially impeachable offenses. After viewing these findings, the judiciary committee could draft and approve articles of impeachment against Trump.

Then it goes to the House floor for a vote. Passing of the articles would be followed by a Senate trial, requiring a two-thirds majority for conviction and removal of the President.

Is Impeachment Likely?

At this point, no one knows the extent of the whistleblower’s accusations. The Republicans still control the Senate. At least 20 of them would need to vote against the party for a conviction to happen.

It figures to be a long process, one likely to be stalled by Republicans via every means possible.

It’s doubtful that it will be done before 2020.

Picks: Finishes First Term (-400)

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