Jeanie Buss Makes Max Donation to Spencer Pratt: Odds for Next LA Mayor

• The campaign to be the next mayor of Los Angeles is ramping up with the primary set to be held on June 2
• Unless one candidate reaches the 50% threshold in that primary, there will be a November runoff between the two top vote getters
• Jeanie Buss, the Los Angeles Lakers governor, recently drew attention after donating the maximum amount to Spencer Pratt’s campaign; prediction markets are speculating on who will ultimately be elected the next LA mayor

Money is the underlying lifeblood for any political campaign. Much can be discerned by keeping track of who is making donations and which candidates they are supporting. In some instances, it is a hedging maneuver from a person or entity who will need a good relationship with the elected official, regardless of their ideology. In other cases, they truly believe in the candidate.

Los Angles Lakers former owner and current franchise governor Jeanie Buss donated the maximum legal amount of $1,800 to former reality TV star Spencer Pratt as he runs for mayor of Los Angeles. Ordinarily, this would attract little attention. But LA has become a bellwether for the political direction of California and the United States.

Buss does not need to wade into politics given her wealth, business interests, and standing in the community. However, LA is viewed as having moved so far leftward that more and more people are coming out in support of dramatic change. Buss is a well-known businesswoman in the state and is respected for her intelligence and savvy. She’s anything but an influencer, though her contribution could be categorized as influential, giving others who are concerned about the direction of the city the implied approval to donate as well.

While Pratt is a Republican, he is portraying himself as a moderate.

The other two candidates in the race, Mayor Karen Bass and Los Angeles City Council-member Nithya Raman, are vying with Pratt to win the election. Both are Democrats.

Prediction markets have options to weigh in on which of the three top candidates will be elected mayor. Buss’s donation has yet to significantly impact the odds, but there is still more than a month to go before the primary.

Odds for Next LA Mayor

This market is garnering a great deal of attention as the primary draws closer and coverage increases. Volume is approaching $1.8 million.

Based on current percentages on the market, the top three candidates are Raman, Pratt, and Bass. Raman is above 50% to win. Next is Pratt at around 25%. Right behind him is Bass in the low-20s.

In addition to being able to pick the winner, there is an option to invest in the margin of victory.

For those who want to take part, the Kalshi referral code offers a $10 Sign-Up Bonus after completing $10 in trades.

The market rules are simple. If the selected candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral Election in 2026, the market will resolve to Yes. The City of Los Angeles will verify the outcome.

Nithya Raman

Raman’s rise from relative obscurity to being the frontrunner to be elected mayor of Los Angeles and her adherence to Democratic Socialism has invited comparisons to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

At 44, she is relatively young and markets herself as an avowed progressive. Her platform includes housing affordability, protecting renters, decriminalizing homeless encampments, protecting the environment, reining in perceived law enforcement aggression, better access to childcare, and helping small businesses.

The question about her is whether voters in Los Angeles like what they have seen in New York under Mamdani’s leadership and if they want a similar philosophy in their city.

Polling has her in front, but she remains somewhat unknown. As the primary gets closer, expect Pratt and Bass to hone in on her vulnerabilities compared to what they view as their strengths. Scare tactics are inevitable.

Mamdani withstood every attack and brushed them off, but that might have had more to do with low turnout and the absence of a viable alternative than New York City voters being enamored of him.

Spencer Pratt

California has become so dark blue that the mere fact that Pratt is a Republican could hinder him despite commonsense policies. His is a fiscal conservative who wants to root out corruption. He hopes to help those who lost property in the wildfires by removing regulatory obstacles and bureaucracy from the equation. Regarding the homeless, he wants those with mental issues and substance abuse problems to seek help before they can receive entitlements from the city.

His status as a reality show character might give some pause before voting for him since that is what President Donald J. Trump was before running for office. Suffice it to say that Trump is unpopular in California in general and Los Angeles in particular.

It’s very hard to see Pratt winning unless Raman and Bass split the vote, opening the door for him to get into the runoff where he has a puncher’s chance to win a one-on-one in November.

Karen Bass

Bass is the incumbent. Normally, that’s a strong place to be for a Democrat in a Democrat-heavy city. However, she has several disadvantages that make her vulnerable.

The city is viewed as heading downhill. Her tenure as mayor, which began in 2022, has done little to stem the tide. If anything, it’s gotten worse. The wildfires are certainly not her fault, but the response to it has invited widespread ridicule because while they were happening, she was in Ghana for their president’s inauguration.

She has tried to address homelessness with an increase in available housing, but it has been slow-going and is perceived as ineffective. Deviating from the extreme wing of the party, she has been generally supportive of law enforcement financially and through policy, though she has supported an end to chokeholds and other law enforcement practices that are deemed questionable. LA is protective of immigrants and hostile to ICE raids during her tenure.

She’s an older candidate, turning 73 in October.

Bass is a staunch Democrat, but she is not as far to the left as Raman.

Many voters are on the fence. It’s conceivable that they will walk into the voting booth and pick Bass as the conciliatory choice despite the percentages suggesting that Raman is going to win.

There is a heavy profit available by sticking with Bass, but that hinges on whether Raman has staying power and people are not scared off by the comparisons to the polarizing Mamdani.