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Justin Trudeau Becomes Odds-On Favorite to Win Canadian Election After Debate

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Politics News

Updated Mar 25, 2020 · 4:01 PM PDT

Justin Trudeau looking away
Justin Trudeau is the odds-on -145 favorite to still be Prime Minister of Canada following the October 21st Federal election. Photo by Alex Guibord (wikipedia).
  • Justin Trudeau is the odds-on favorite to still be Prime Minister of Canada following the October 21st Federal election
  • Conservative Andrew Scheer is given +110 odds to win the election
  • The majority of polls indicate that the race is neck and neck between Trudeau’s Liberals and Scheer’s Tories

When it comes to Justin Trudeau and the Canadian Federal election, sportsbooks are boldly going to a place that most polls show to be inconclusive.

Online betting odds on the outcome of the October 21st Canadian election set Trudeau as the odds-on favorite at -145.

Odds to Be Elected Canadian Prime Minister

Candidate Odds
Justin Trudeau -145
Andrew Scheer +110
Jagmeet Singh +2000
Elizabeth May +25000
Maxime Bernier +25000
Yves-Francois Blanchet +75000

Odds taken on 10/10/19.

Conservative leader Andrew Scheer is listed at odds of +110 to win the election and become Prime Minister.

Trudeau Turnaround

Just three weeks ago, Trudeau’s re-election hopes were looking a bit bleak. Old photos emerged from Trudeau’s teaching days of him in brownface.

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Trudeau quickly apologized for the 2001 incident. But the damage was done.

As a result, he ensuing scandal saw Trudeau’s odds of winning the election plummet to +110. Meanwhile, Scheer claimed the favorite’s role at +110.

Scheer Stumbles

Given the edge, Scheer fumbled it right back to his Liberal counterpart. He made a couple of missteps of his own.

For instance, it emerged that Scheer fudged his resume. He’d never worked as an insurance broker. Similarly, it was revealed that he had kept secret the fact that he maintains dual Canadian-American citizenship.

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These incidents serve to emphasize the concern that so much is in unknown about Scheer. His plans for Canada remain secretive. With the vote just 11 days away, the Conservatives have yet to make public their election platform.

Above all, there’s Scheer’s troubling ties to the alt-right Rebel Media. His campaign manager Hamish Marshall was working as a director of Rebel Media up until 2016.

They Wouldn’t Really Rather Have Ford

Scheer’s elusiveness on policy is a stark reminder to voters of how Conservative Doug Ford won election as Premier of Ontario. He kept his platform under wraps as well. Ford relied on bashing Premier Kathleen Wynne’s record as his path to power.

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However, Ford is proving to be an unmitigated disaster as leader of Ontario. Scheer has sought to distance himself from Ford. He opted instead to parachute Alberta Premier Jason Kenney into Ontario to campaign in Ford’s backyard, for instance.

Meanwhile, the Trudeau camp constantly parallels Scheer’s game plan to Ford’s strategy. The way Ontario votes figures to tip this election one way or the other.

Polls Muddy Election Waters

Who’s going to win the election? It depends upon which poll you check.

Among the most recent polls, a Nanos/Globe & Mail-CTV poll gives Trudeau the biggest edge. They’ve got the Liberals leading at 37 percent. By comparison, Scheer’s Conservatives are at 33 percent.

On the other hand, a Forum/Toronto Star poll puts the Tories at 35 percent. The Liberals at just 28 percent.

Polls by Canadian Press (31-31) and Mainstreet/iPolitics-GSM (32-32) are calling the race a dead heat.

Expect Trudeau Minority Government

The Liberals handed Scheer two hot-button controversies. There’s Trudeau’s brown face and the SNC-Lavalin ethics violation. However, he’s still proving unable to pull away in the polls.

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In this election, the smart money will be expecting Canadians to choose the devil they know (Trudeau) over the devil they don’t (Scheer).

Anticipating a Liberal minority government on October 21st is the best bet.

Pick: Justin Trudeau (-145)

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