Andrew Scheer Now Odds-On Favorite to Win 2019 Canadian Election Amid News of Trudeau’s Racist Makeup
- Brownface scandal devastates Trudeau’s odds to be re-elected, dumping Canada’s Prime Minister to a +110 underdog
- Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer now -110 favorite to win election
- Dogged by scandal, Trudeau faces massive task to win back support ahead of Election Day on October 21
Following an uneventful first week on the campaign trail, things heated up considerably for Justin Trudeau on Wednesday, with multiple pictures surfacing from his past of the Canadian prime minister wearing racist brownface and blackface makeup.
Forced into damage control mode by the subsequent outcry, the scandal has taken its toll on Trudeau’s odds of being re-elected in next month’s federal election, with Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer now emerging as a narrow -110 favorite.
Odds to Win 2019 Canadian Federal Election
| Team | Odds to Win |
|---|---|
| Andrew Scheer | -110 |
| Justin Trudeau | +110 |
| Jagmeet Singh | +900 |
| Elizabeth May | +3300 |
| Maxime Bernier | +3300 |
*Odds taken on 09/19/19
Blackface Scandal Devastates Trudeau’s Well-Honed Image
The pictures, which date back as far as Trudeau’s days as a private school student at Montreal’s Collège Jean-de-Brébeuf, sparked an immediate and widespread anger, and have bolstered Scheer’s position in Canadian election odds, as the favorite, after being even with Trudeau since earlier this year.
Canada’s Justin Trudeau speaks after brownface photos, video surface of him as a younger man https://t.co/6t68EBrLVN
— Reuters (@Reuters) September 19, 2019
The release of the images, by Time Magazine and Global News, have severely damaged Trudeau’s carefully crafted image as a leader accepting of all genders, races and creeds.
Facing calls that he step down as a candidate in Canada’s election on October 21, Trudeau has held multiple press conferences to apologize for the pictures, the most embarrassing of which were taken at an Arabian Nights-themed party while he was a teacher at a west coast private school in 2001.
While Liberal Party supporters have rallied around the beleaguered Canadian leader, the “brownface” scandal is just the latest in a long string of controversies that have steadily eroded the widespread support that Trudeau enjoyed since his landslide election victory in 2015.
SNC-Lavalin Scandal Continues to Hurt Liberals
Trudeau continues to be dogged by allegations of impropriety relating to alleged attempts to shield Montreal-based engineering firm SNC-Lavalin from prosecution for its activities in Libya both prior to, and following, the death of dictator Muammar Gaddafi.
Jody Wilson-Raybould, Jane Philpott react to expulsion from Liberal caucus #cdnpoli #SNCLavalin
MORE: https://t.co/nvhYU7VYbu pic.twitter.com/iPzXVBJHkr
— Globalnews.ca (@globalnews) April 3, 2019
The Prime Minister’s Office has been accused of attempting to improperly influence Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould, freeing the company from the threat of prosecution. That ultimately led to Wilson-Raybould’s resignation from cabinet, and subsequent ouster from the Liberal party caucus, and is now the subject of an RCMP investigation.
Wilson-Raybould Ouster & Western Alienation
The expulsion of Wilson-Raybould, a member of the We Wai Kai First Nation, further soured an already deteriorating relationship between Trudeau and Canada’s First Nations. Walking a fine line between sticking to his honed image as an environmentalist and ally to First Nations, and not alienating voters in resource-rich provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan, Trudeau has struggled to maintain the support of either base.
Canada's Obama
Trudeau’s ill-fated official visit to India- Dressed in traditional Indian garments, Trudeau family spent entire wk clothed in way that many Indians took as insulting. Parade of outfits & attempt by Trudeau to dance 4 crowd, was endless mocking on social media pic.twitter.com/MI5WAMEOMh— Blanche Victoria (@tammytabby) March 11, 2018
Trudeau’s Liberals hold just four of the 35 total parliamentary seats in the two central Canadian provinces, and currently trail the Conservatives on the prairies by massive double-digit margins in the polls.
Other issues dogging Trudeau include his inability to balance the federal budget as promised in 2015, as well as concerns about how he has represented Canada on the international stage, most notably in a widely ridiculed 2018 trip to India by the 47-year-old and his family.
Cosmopolitan Toronto Key to Trudeau’s Fortunes
Perhaps the greatest concern for Trudeau is the fallout from the current “brownface” scandal in vote-rich Toronto and the surrounding area.
One of the most cosmopolitan cities in the world, Toronto, and the GTA, played a huge role in Trudeau’s rise to power.
Federal Election 2015: Adam Vaughan wins over Chow, Liberals surge in Toronto #elxn42 https://t.co/D1IxMY8kKj
— Globalnews.ca (@globalnews) October 20, 2015
With heavy support in and around Canada’s biggest city, the Liberals took 79 of 95 seats across the Province of Ontario. But with the Greater Toronto Area home to a large numbers of visible minorities, Trudeau is likely to struggle to regain their trust following this week’s events.
Indeed, in the hours immediately following the release of the pictures that have led some to label Trudeau a racist, the polls have swung in favor of the Conservative Party. That sets the stage for Andrew Scheer to lead the Conservatives to their fourth victory in five federal elections since 2006.
Daniel has been writing about sports and sports betting for over 23 years. The seasoned pro has contributed to the likes of Sports Illustrated, Sportsnet, NESN, Bleacher Report, OddsShark, the Globe and Mail, and The Nation magazine.
