Odds to be Elected Canada’s Prime Minister in 2019: Scheer & Trudeau Given the Same Odds

• Sportsbooks are listing the odds of who will be elected Prime Minister of Canada as a dead heat
• Both Liberal incumbent Justin Trudeau and Conversative Andrew Scheer are given odds of +135 to be PM
• Sportsbooks give Scheer (+110) a slight edge over Trudeau (+135)

Will the battle to be Prime Minister of Canada be a case of like father, like son for Justin Trudeau? The leading sportsbooks aren’t so sure.

Canada is slated to go to the polls October 19, 2019. Sportsbooks put the race between incumbent Liberal Trudeau and Conservative Andrew Scheer as a dead heat. Both leaders are given identical +135 odds to be elected the next Prime Minister of Canada.

Odds To Be Elected Canada’s Prime Minister

*Odds taken on 07/24/19. Follow link for complete list.

One sportsbook is leaning toward Scheer winning the day. The sportsbook places Scheer as the +110 chalk. Trudeau is listed at odds of +135.

Trudeau was elected PM in 2015.

Who’s Your Daddy?

Trudeau rode to power four years ago on the combination of dissatisfaction with the governing Conversatives and leader Stephen Harper and name recognition.

His father Pierre Trudeau was Canadian Prime Minister from 1968-79 and again from 1980-84. That enabled Trudeau to overcome his obvious lack of poltical experience.

He’s the first son of the PM to be elected to the office.

But is Trudeau’s popularity waning? A mid-July Global News poll revealed that just 32-percent of Canadians approve of Trudeau as Prime Minister. By contrast, 36-percent want to see Scheer as PM.

Conservative Populism Heading to Canada?

Two of three of the world’s largest English-speaking democracies have swung far to the right in ideology in their most recent political upheavals.

The United States elected Donald Trump as President in 2016. All signs point to what an unmitigated disaster this choice has proven to be for the country. Yet Trump supporters are unwavering in backing their man.

British Conversatives recently chose a leader to replace outgoing PM Theresa May. They opted for former London mayor Boris Johnson. Like Trump, Johnson’s is a career full of gaffes and corruption. Still, some people strongly support him.

In terms of ideology, Scheer certainly fits into this mold. On the other hand, it’s becoming readily apparent that he lacks the charisma of Trump and Johnson. Will Scheer sway enough of the electorate to believe he can do no wrong?

The Prime Minister’s Directive

Once the campaiging begins, Scheer’s flaws and lack of personality will prove his downfall. The impact of the disastrous Doug Ford Ontario government won’t help his cause. They’ve quickly made Conservatives about as popular there as the Montreal Canadiens.

Canadian Election Seat Projection Update: NDP gains seats as @theJagmeetSingh spends the week touring Quebec ridings.
For a second week, Liberals continue to lead the pack. #cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/6AHL8nV1nS

— Advanced Symbolics Inc. *Be virtual* (@Polly_ASI) July 19, 2019

Scheer needs to carry Ontario to win Canada, and that now seems unlikely.

It's exactly three months from the federal election date and Wilfrid Laurier University's Barry Kay has a new set of numbers showing where Canadians currently stand. pic.twitter.com/6f2nBTnt5A

— The West Block (@TheWestBlock) July 21, 2019

The political analytics site electionarium.com projects a Trudeau minority government in October. That makes sense.

Pierre Trudeau won a minority government in his second term. Justin will in fact be like father, like son.