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“National Emergency” Improving Trump’s 2020 Presidential Election Odds

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Politics News

Feb 21, 2019 · 3:26 PM PST

Donald Trump at a podium
Donald Trump has had a bumpy presidency. Photo by Gage Skidmore (Wiki Commons).
  • Donald Trump’s odds of being re-elected US President in 2020 are improving since he declared a national emergency.
  • Trump declaration was to gain funding for his proposed border wall.
  • Sixteen states filed suit, arguing the President is circumventing Congress in order to pay for the wall.

Donald Trump says there is a national emergency. Congress says there is not. And at the moment, it would appear that there are more American people in agreement with the President’s motives than there were prior to his declaration of a national emergency.

In less than a week since this event unfolded, Trump’s average odds of winning the US Presidency in 2020 have dropped from +210 to +110.

2020 US Presidential Election Odds

Candidate Odds
Donald Trump +200
Kamala Harris +500
Beto O’Rourke +800
Joe Biden +800
Bernie Sanders +1000
Amy Klobuchar +1500
Elizabeth Warren +2200
Michael Bloomberg +2500
Tulsi Gabbard +2500
Sherrod Brown +2800

*Odds taken on 02/21/19. Follow link for complete list.

Trump’s invoking the National Emergencies Act on February 15th allows him to funnel billions of dollars from other areas of the budget, such as the military and FEMA. This move gets him the money required to fund his desired wall along the US-Mexico border. He chose this option after Congress didn’t budget for his desired border wall.

When an Emergency is Not an Emergency

The first thing Trump did after declaring a national emergency was to race to Florida for a golfing weekend. Let’s face it, that’s about par for the course for him.

Sixteen states filed a lawsuit in the US District Court for the Northern District of California.

Their argument is that the President is doing an end run on Congress to get funding for the wall.

Congress, meanwhile, set the wheels in motion to attempt to grind Trump’s emergency to a halt. It put forth a resolution to terminate the declaration.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi says that they are simply seeking to uphold the US Constitution.

Is Team Trump on Board?

Trump’s ability to utilize his power within the Republican base of voters has frequently proven strong enough to sway Senate Republicans to his side on key issues. This time, there’s indications that not everyone in the party is prepared to board the Trump train.

If Democrats sway four Republican Senators across the floor, it will pass their resolution through Congress. One, Sen. Susan Collins, is already talking publicly about how she does not agree with Trump’s move.

Is There Staying Power?

Might this Trump bump be shortlived? One advantage he currently holds is that no clear Democratic frontrunner is emerging to challenge him in 2020.

Once the Democrats have a Presidential candidate ready to drive the bus, that will be the true test of Trump’s re-elctability.

At this point, betting on any 2020 Presidential hopeful is a shot in the dark. Even if that wager is placed on the incumbent.

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