Odds Against Canada Opening Land Border to US Citizens On September 21, 2020

• The land border between the US and Canada has been closed to non-essential traffic since March 21, due to the COVID-19 pandemic
• With US authorities struggling to flatten the curve and the threat of a second wave of COVID-19 looming, there is little hope that the Canadian government will reopen its border to US citizens any time soon
• We’ve got you covered with the odds on when the world’s longest undefended border will reopen

It has been almost five months since the governments of Canada and the United States mutually agreed to close the land border between the two countries in an attempt to stem the spread of the novel coronavirus. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to rage, particularly in the US, the odds of the border reopening on September 21 remain long, at +330.

Odds Canada Reopens Its Land Border to US Citizens On September 21

All odds taken August 18. Canada must re-open its land border to US citizens for recreational and/or non-essential travel for ‘Yes’ to be graded as a win. Any wagers placed on the same day that news becomes public knowledge will be deemed void

Pandemic Closes World’s Longest Undefended Border

Almost 8,900 kilometers in length, the border between Canada and the United States has been heralded for decades as the longest undefended border in the world. That all changed on March 21, as the two countries agreed to ban all non-essential travel across the border. Some optimism existed at the time that the move would be temporary, with President Donald Trump expressing hope that the US could be “opened up and just raring to go by Easter”.

CANADA CLOSES SOUTHERN BORDER: PM Justin Trudeau addresses the nation on the state of the coronavirus in Canada. A mutually-agreed upon shutdown of the U.S./Canada border went into effect at midnight. https://t.co/YSGAlMUvuV

— Vitascope (@VitascopeTweets) March 21, 2020

But while Canadian efforts to bring the pandemic under control have been largely successful, the same cannot be said of the US. Canadians have largely complied with the demands of authorities to practice social distancing, wear masks, and avoid crowds. And the results have been positive, with the total number of COVID-19 deaths across the country falling well under 100 through the first half of August.

US Struggling to Contain COVID-19

Conversely, US authorities continue to struggle to bring the pandemic under control. Fueled by the wave of mass protests to hit the country since early June, and the reluctance of Americans to comply with calls to observe social distancing measures and wear masks, the number of COVID-19 cases in the US has continued to climb. According to estimates, over 2.4 million Americans are currently infected with COVID-19, bring the total number of cases across the country to over 5.6 million, with the estimated death toll now topping 173,000.

4 signs COVID-19 is on the decline again in the US…
1) New cases*: 52,682, down from peak of 66,870 on 7/23.
2) % Positive*: 7.2%, lowest since 7/5.
3) Hospitalizations: 44,788 lowest since 7/9.
4) Deaths*: 1,067, leveling out, down from peak of 1,078 on 8/12.
*7-day average pic.twitter.com/NUCacC2nvE

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 16, 2020

While recent data indicate that the US may be turning the corner on new cases, the governments of Canada, the US, and Mexico last week agreed to extend border restrictions into September, with the ban on non-essential land crossings now extended to September 21. But with the Americans still facing a long road in their battle against the deadly virus, the betting value is best found in the -500 odds of the border not reopening on that date.

Pick: No (-500)

Odds When Canada Opens Its Land Border to US Citizens

Fears of Second Wave Likely to Keep Border Closed

Is there a chance the border could reopen before Christmas? Once again the odds of Canada reopening its land border to US citizens by December 21 are a longshot, pegged at +175. While the number of cases in the US remains high, there is optimism that the worst has passed, with the number of daily new cases trending downward so far in the month of August. However, legitimate concerns remain about the possibility of North America getting hit by a second wave in the fall as the seasons change, and people start to spend more time indoors.

https://twitter.com/wef/status/1294921844256980994?s=20

Indeed, history tells us that a second wave is likely inevitable. In the case of the Spanish Flu pandemic a century ago, it was the second and third waves that resulted in the most fatalities. In addition, the second wave of the H1N1 flu a decade ago resulted in a massive spike in cases, and an almost five times increase in deaths.

Trudeau just cancelled hearings on the WE Charity scandal. Is Trudeau trying to end all accountability?

READ: https://t.co/lFEc69aUeC pic.twitter.com/DTcxU5jo8T

— The Post Millennial (@TPostMillennial) August 18, 2020

Faced with such uncertainty, and no clear indication that the recent fall in cases in the US will continue, the Canadian government is likely to play it safe when it comes to the border. Further complicating matters for embattled Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is the real possibility that he may have to answer to the Canadian people in a fall election amid both the current pandemic and the fallout from the WE Charity scandal. With so much at stake, there is little reason to expect that Canada will agree to a risky reopening of the border anytime soon.

Pick: On or After December 21 (-240)