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Odds Trump Is Indicted by April Hovering Around +475; Will Donald Face Criminal Charges?

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Politics News

Dec 14, 2021 · 7:30 PM PST

Donald Trump speaking at a rally in Ohio in July 2021
Former President Donald Trump speaks on a variety of topics to supporters at a Turning Point Action gathering in Phoenix. The midsummer race for Ohio's traditionally Republican 15th Congressional District wouldn't typically get much national attention. But it's suddenly becoming a high-stakes test of Trump's endorsement power, which he has wielded as a cudgel to silence opposition in the GOP. Trump has endorsed Mike Carey, a coal lobbyist who is among 10 Republicans jockeying to replace former GOP Rep. Steve Stivers, who retired from Congress earlier this year. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin, File)
  • Will former US President Donald Trump be indicted for any alleged crimes by April of 2022?
  • Online prediction markets don’t give it a strong chance of happening
  • They are offering shares which are pricing out at 17 cents for Yes and 83 cents for No

Currently, Americans are not able to wager on US political props at legal, domestic sportsbooks. But the rest of the world is busy doing so and one of the most-popular subjects is whether former President Donald Trump will face criminal charges (federal or state) in the next few months.

The political markets at PredictIt.org are selling shares in “Yes” (Trump will be indicted) at 17 cents with “No” currently at 83 cents. The “Yes” shares reached as high as 23 cents in October, but have hovered between 15 and 18 cents for the last several weeks. Converted to American odds, that’s between +450 and +570.

Odds Donald Trump Is Indicted by April 1, 2022

Candidate Yes Odds No Odds
Donald Trump -488 +488

The Trump Organization is currently under investigation in New York for cheating on property tax payments. As well, in the US Congress the January 6 Committee is investigating the insurgence that invaded the Capitol Building that day. Trump’s name is being mentioned frequently as the panel is continuing its investigation.

New York Investigation Of Trump Continuing

The Manhattan, NY investigation of the Trump Organization is ongoing. Among a number of potentials sources of legal jeopardy for the former President is accusations that the Trump Organization was cheating on property valuations in order to lower its property tax payments.

Allen Weisselberg, chief financial officer of the Trump Organization, has already been indicated on these charges. The belief is that prosecutors are seeking to get Weisselberg to roll on members of the Trump family.

New York state Attorney General Letitia James is seeking a deposition from Trump. He is denying all wrongdoing. However, Manhattan District Attorney and noted Trump foe Cyrus Vance Jr is leaving office at the end of the year. That’s creating intense speculation that further indictments in this case could be forthcoming later this month.

Congressional Investigation Ongoing

The Congressional committee investigating the January 6, 2021 invasion of the Capitol Building, heard some embarrassing evidence for Trump from texts sent to his Chief of Staff Mark Meadows while the rioting was ongoing.

Donald Trump Jr and several FOX Network news show hosts were texting Meadows, imploring him to get the President to do something to quell the ongoing insurgence while Congress was under attack. It was committee member Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney of Wyoming, daughter of former US Vice-President Dick Cheney, who read these texts into the record during the investigation on Tuesday.

The committee is ready to file contempt of Congress charges against Meadows if he refuses to testify before them. The belief is that they’re seeking to work up the chain of command in order to seek the goods on Trump.

He’s Teflon Don

Trump once boasted that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue in New York City and not face charges. Well, it turns out that person he shot on Fifth Avenue was Uncle Sam.

As President, he spent four years trampling all over the Constitution. He succeeded in inciting a riot to protest his loss in the 2020 Presidential election . . . that’s the popular line of thinking, anyway.

The fact of the matter is that everything that’s been unearthed by the January 6 Committee is embarrassing to Trump.  It displays gross negligence and utter incompetence.

Is it an indictable offense? At this point in the investigation, no.

What are the chances that Trump will be indicted by April 1, 2022? Right now, 17% seems about accurate.

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