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Odds Say Julian Assange Will be Charged With Conspiracy, Will Get More Than 4.5 Years in Prison

Julian Assange arrested
Wikileaks founder Julian Assange was arrested Thursday outside the Ecuadorian Embassy in London. (Photo: Screengrab)
  • Wikileaks founder Julian Assange was arrested Thursday as he left the Ecuadorian embassy in London
  • He faces US federal conspiracy charges related to one of the largest ever leaks of government secrets
  • MyBookie favors Assange to be charged with conspiracy and serve over 4.5 years in prison

The bizzare case of Julian Assange took yet another strange twist. As he was removed from the Ecuadorian embassy in London on Thursday, the Wikileaks founder was immediately arrested by police.

MyBookie is offering a series of prop bets on possible outcomes from Assange’s arrest.

Odds Julian Assange Is Charged With Conspiracy

Outcome Odds Julian Assange is charged with conspiracy at MyBookie
Yes -1500
No +750

*Odds taken 04/12/19

Assange appeared later in the day at Westminster Magistrates’ Court, where he was found guilty of failing to surrender to the court. Facing charges of sexual assault in Sweden, Assange skipped out on bail. He was granted political asylum by Ecuador’s government. He’d been living in the embassy since 2012.

Assange Wanted in US

Assange also faces US federal conspiracy charges. This is in relation to one of the largest leaks of government secrets. He could be extradicted by Britain to the US to be tried on those charges.

The US and UK have long cooperated on legal matters, so extradition seems likely.

Assange is facing a single count of participating in the hacking of intelligence computers with former US soldier and intelligence analyst Chelsea Manning. Manning was convcted by court martial in 2013 for violating the US Espionage Act.

The hack revealed controversial intelligence operations in the United States.

Is it Freedom of the Press?

His backers insist that what Assange did was nothing more than solid journalism.

They feel sending him to prison for his actions sets a poor precedent. It could endanger American journalists who report on government misdeeds.

Over/Under Years Julian Assange Serves in Prison

Total Odds on length of Julian Assange prison term at MyBookie
Over 4.5 Years -700
Under 4.5 Years +475

If convicted of conspiracy, Assange could face a maximum five-year prison term. US President Donald Trump frequently cites the media as the enemy of the people.

Assange doing a long stretch in prison would be a diabolical method for Trump. It would strike fear into the press covering his administration.

World Leaders Speak Out

Several prominent political figures were quick to speak out about Assange’s arrest. They included US Democratic Presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard.

Jeremy Corbyn, leader of Britain’s opposition Labour Party, also voiced his concerns.

Former US Secretary of State and 2016 US Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton stated that Assange must answer for what he did.

Wikileaks released a large drop of her emails shortly before the 2016 election. It’s believed to have played a role in Trump defeating Clinton for the Presidency.

Trump, a man who lives to slam people on Twitter, has stayed silent on the subject thus far.

Odds Donald Trump Tweets About Julian Assange Conviction

Outcome Odds Donald Trump tweets about Julian Assange conviction at MyBookie
Yes -600
No +400

Trump claimed Thursday that he knew nothing of the arrest, or about Wikileaks.

Trump and Twitter is like a 10-year-old with a roll of bubble wrap. You know those bubbles are going to burst. He will tweet about this eventually.

Is Gitmo On The Table?

In the past, his lawyers have argued that if convicted, Assange would be sent to Guantanamo Bay. That’s the infamous Gitmo prison in the US-controlled part of Cuba.

This seems very unlikely.

Odds Julian Assange Will Be Sent to Gitmo

Outcome Odds Julian Assange is sent to Gitmo at MyBookie
Yes +800
No -1600

The detainees at Guantanmo Bay are not high-profile cases as this one will be. Sending Assange to Gitmo would only turn into a martyr in the eyes of many. It would give his supporters a platform to hammer away at the US government.

Might Assange Die Before Going to Jail?

The process to fight his extradition to the US could take up to a year. Assange’s lawyers will follow every legal avenue in their fight to prevent this from happening.

An Australian national, his legal team is already in touch with Australia’s government for assistance.

Odds Julian Assange Dies Before Being Convicted

Outcome Odds Julian Assange dies before conviction at MyBookie
Yes +525
No -850

Assange’s lawyer Jennifer Robinson intends to argue that this is a free speech issue.

Assange did not look like a healthy man as he was arrested on Thursday. However, he is only 47 years old. Yes, it could take a year for his extradition and a year or two for his trail.

Even if he were to be convicted and face the maximum five-year prison sentence, he’d only be in his mid-50s upon release. Therefore, death in prison would be a doubtful endgame.

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