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Odds of Senate Voting to Remove President Trump Set at +2000

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Politics News

Updated Mar 26, 2020 · 3:45 PM PDT

Donald Trump looking smug
Sportsbooks have set the odds of US President Donald Trump being convicted of impeachment by the Senate at +2000. Photo by Gage Skidmore (flickr)
  • Wednesday, the House of Representatives voted to impeach US President Donald Trump
  • Sportsbooks have set the odds of Trump being convicted of impeachment by the Senate at +2000
  • It would take a two-thirds majority of the Republican-controlled Senate to vote yes in order for Trump to be convicted

On Wednesday, the House of Representatives voted to impeach US President Donald Trump. So what are the chances that the Senate votes to convict Trump and remove him from office?

How about somewhere between slim and none?

That’s certainly the way sportsbooks are viewing the outcome of Trump’s trial. The sportsbook has set the odds that Trump will be impeached and removed from office at +2000.

That line is among a series of prop wagers that sportsbooks are offering on the upcoming trial in the Senate. Bettors can also play a total wager on the number of Republican Senators who will vote in favor of impeaching Trump.

There are also a number of plays regarding how certain Senators will vote following the trial.

Odds Senate Votes to Remove President Trump from Office

Outcome Odds
Yes +2000
No -5000

Odds taken on Dec. 19

While two US Presidents were previously impeached by the House, neither Andrew Johnson or Bill Clinton were convicted by the Senate.

Trump is the first Republican President to be impeached. He’s also the first President to be impeached during his first term in office.

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During an impeachment trial, a team from the House is appointed by the Speaker to serve as the impeachment team. Basically, they are the prosecutors. The Senate serves as the jury. John Roberts, Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, presides over the trial.

This Time, Republicans Are in Charge

The Republicans control the Senate, with 53 of the 100 members. In order for Trump to be convicted and removed from office, it would require that a two-thirds majority of Senators cast their ballots for yes.

Already, Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell stated that he’ll side with the President. There’s even speculation that he might dismiss the Articles of Impeachment without any witnesses being heard.

Prominent Republican Senators like Lindsey Graham have also publicly stated that they know how they will cast their vote even before the case is presented in front of them.

Pick: No (-5000)

Odds for Total Number of Republicans Who Will Vote to Impeach President Trump

Total Odds
Over 1.5 +200
Under 1.5 -300

The House made a compelling case that Trump abused the power of his office to try and influence the outcome of the 2020 Presidential election. And that didn’t sway a single Republican voter.

The outcome of the vote on Article 1 of Impeachment was 230-197 in favor. Two Democrats voted no, as did all 195 Republicans. When Article 2 of Impeachment was put forth for a vote, the result was 229-198 in favor. Three Democrats voted no, as did all 195 Republicans.

If you think any Republican Senators are prepared to vote against the cult of Trump, you really haven’t been paying attention.

Pick: Under 1.5 (-300)

Odds for Each Senator to Vote Impeachment

Senator Yes Odds No Odds
Susan Collins +200 -300
Lisa Murkowski +200 -300
Mitt Romney +120 -160

You know that Peanuts cartoon where Lucy convinces Charlie Brown to run and kick the football while she holds it? Every time, she pulls the ball away at the last second and he takes a horrible tumble. Yet he never learns his lesson.

That’s what Republican Senators do to you. They dangle the sense that they’ve finally grown a conscience about Trump’s misdeeds.

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But when it comes time to vote, they completely lose the courage of their convictions.

“No” is the play for all three of these props.

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