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Odds Trump Unbanned From Twitter Before Inauguration Set at +2000; Facebook Favored to Let Trump Back on First

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Politics

Jan 11, 2021 · 6:32 PM PST

Donald Trump pointing and yelling
Donald Trump has been banned or suspended from Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram following the riots at the Capitol on Jan. 6th. 2021. considerably. Photo by Gage Skidmore (flickr).
  • Facebook is the odds-on -200 favorite to be the first social-media outlet to lift its ban on US President Donald Trump
  • In a separate prop wager, odds are an overwhelming -10000 in favor of Trump still being banned from Twitter when his term in the White House ends on Jan. 20th
  • The President was suspended from most major social-media platforms shortly after the Trump-encouraged insurrection at the US Capitol building on Jan. 6th

Facebook is favored to be the first social media platform that will opt to welcome the return of US President Donald Trump’s account. On the other hand, odds are extremely strong that Twitter will continue to hold to Trump’s ban from their site until after he’s left the White House.

The release on Monday of two separate prop wagers relating to Trump’s time in social media jail lists Facebook as the -200 chalk to be the first company to embrace the return of Trump to its platform.

A second prop, though, is giving overwhelming -10,000 odds that Twitter won’t buckle. The betting line is that Trump’s ban from from posting tweets will continue through the Jan. 20th conclusion of his term in the Oval Office.

First Social Media Platform to Remove Donald Trump Suspension

Site Odds
Facebook -200
Instagram +150

Odds as of Jan. 11.

Trump was banned from virtually every major social media outlet after the Jan. 6th insurrection that led to the invasion of Trump supporters into the US Capitol building. Despite the ban, he remains the third betting choice in the 2024 Presidential election odds at +867.

Trump owns the best betting line of any Republican.

Facebook Holding Firm on Trump

Historically, Facebook’s reputation when it comes to morals and ethics aren’t exactly stellar. However, in this instance it doesn’t appear that the social media platform will be rescinding Trump’s suspension anytime soon.

Speaking on Monday during the Reuters Next conference. Facebook operations chief Sheryl Sandberg indicated that the world’s largest social network had no plans to lift its suspension of Trump’s accounts.

At the same time, Facebook announced that it was removing all references to “Stop The Steal,” the slogan that Trump sold to his followers as he spread baseless claims that the election of Democrat Joe Biden as President was fraudulent.

Violent rhetoric increased on social media sites such as Facebook in the days leading up to the Jan. 6th insurrection. Trump’s words strongly encouraged this action.

Sandberg suggested that Trump could appeal the removal of his content to the Facebook oversight board if he wanted. However, there is no appeal process to try and lift his account suspensions.

On its surface, this wager looks like a no-win proposal. Trump is toxic right now and no legitimate social media site is about to offer him free reign to spread more hate.

Then again, if you had to pick which site will welcome him back first, Facebook makes the most sense.

Pick: Facebook (-200)

Will Donald Trump Be Reinstated to Twitter Before Jan. 20, 2021?

Outcome Odds
No -10000
Yes +2000

On Jan. 8th, Twitter announced that it was permanently suspending Trump’s account. Twitter found that Trump’s tweets were in violation of the company’s policy that aims to prevent the glorification of violence.

Five people are dead following the Jan. 6th assault on Congress.

Facebook and Instagram both provided indications that the suspension of Trump was in place at least until the end of his Presidential term. Twitter, however is calling the ban of Trump from its site a permanent measure.

There’s no way to envision a scenario in which Trump’s Twitter account would be reactivated prior to Jan. 20th.

Pick: No (-10000)

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