- See the early odds on the Nevada Democratic caucuses
- Bernie Sanders is an overwhelming -330 favorite coming off his win in New Hampshire
- Find out how the odds could shift prior to Nevada voters having their say on Feb. 22nd
The next test in Bernie Sanders’ run for the 2020 Democratic Presidential nomination is the Nevada caucuses on Saturday, Feb. 22nd. If the betting line at online sportsbooks is to be believed, Sanders will pass this exam with flying colors.
Oddsmakers peg Sanders as a prohibitive -330 favorite to win the Silver state.
2020 Democratic Presidential Nevada Caucus Odds
Odds taken Feb. 14.
On average across the leading sportsbooks, Sanders is the +124 favorite in the latest 2020 Democratic nominee odds following his win in New Hampshire.
Sanders Climbs In National Polls
Morning Consult released a national poll of Democratic primary voters on Thursday. It showed Sanders increasing his advantage across the country. He was at 25% prior to his win in the New Hampshire primary. Since then, his total has grown to 29%.
"Following his narrow victory in New Hampshire’s Democratic presidential primary — his second successive strong showing in the party’s first nominating contests — Sen. Bernie Sanders opened up a double-digit lead over former Vice President Joe Biden." https://t.co/w900X2zp0D pic.twitter.com/Q7sGcgfsC2
— John Haltiwanger (@jchaltiwanger) February 13, 2020
Sanders now enjoys a double-digit lead. Joe Biden, in second place, dropped from 22% to 19%. Biden is off to a slow start. He finished fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire.
The only other gainers among the contenders were Michael Bloomberg (17% to 18%) and Amy Klobuchar (3% to 5%).
Bernie Also Leading In Nevada
The latest Nevada poll conducted by fivethirtyeight.com also shows Sanders to be the healthy frontrunner there.
Sanders is shown with 24.8% of support from Nevada voters. Biden (16.0%) is second. Elizabeth Warren (10.8%) and Pete Buttigieg (10.1%) are also polling in double digits.
— Stefano Genovese (@CaliBerner) February 12, 2020
Klobuchar’s strong third-place showing in New Hampshire doesn’t appear to be bolstering her chances in Nevada. She’s polling in sixth spot at just 4.2%. The Minnesota Senator is even trailing longshot Tom Steyer (6.4%).
This Bernie bump is a relatively new development. As recently as Feb. 5th, Biden led Nevada with 22.8% of support. Sanders assumed the top spot the next day and has held forth ever since.
Nevada Presents More Diverse Populous
The populations of both Iowa and New Hampshire were 90% white. Nevada includes a significant Latino population.
Thus far, none of Buttigieg, Warren or Klobuchar have polled particularly well among people of color. Biden, on the other hand, does well among that segment of the population.
Who Could Make A Move In Nevada?
One factor that could swing the voting dramatically in Nevada is the state’s powerful culinary union. It represents over 60,000 workers in Nevada’s vital hospitality industry.
The union has declined to endorse a Democratic candidate in the caucuses. This move is seen as a protest against Sanders’ Medicare For All plan. The Nevada culinary union already has in place a very strong health insurance plan. They wouldn’t be interested in giving it up if Sanders ended up in the White House.
Since the whole political world will now be watching whether @Culinary226 endorses someone in Nevada, which would be a genuine earthquake, here’s the candidate policy explainer they’ve sent to members: pic.twitter.com/X3Cgvr3YAX
— Matt Pearce ? (@mattdpearce) February 12, 2020
Biden has the endorsement of one current and two former Nevada members of Congress. He’s also being backed by two former Nevada Governors. On is also an ex-Senator.
The Las Vegas Sun publicly endorsed Klobuchar and Biden earlier this week. The paper also cited Sanders as the one major Democratic candidate it didn’t think was capable of defeating President Donald Trump.
Biden needs to make a strong move in Nevada. If he can swing the culinary union to his side, Biden might be the one to give Sanders a run for his money.
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