- The odds of Democrat challenger Joe Biden winning the 2020 US Presidential election have shortened to -221
- Incumbent Republican President Donald Trump is at a betting line of +184
- Biden is showing the best numbers of any challenger in a Presidential election since scientific polling began in 1936
You look at the most recent numbers on the US Presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Then, you look at Trump shaking his booty to Macho Man on stage at a rally in Florida on Monday.
Immediately, a question comes to mind.
Why is this man dancing?
There’s mounting evidence suggesting that Trump is breaking down to a historic defeat.
The latest betting odds on the election display that Democrat challenger Biden’s lead widening on incumbent Republican Trump. The current odds put Biden as a -221 favorite.
Trump’s betting line has lengthened to +184 in the 2020 election odds.
2020 US Presidential Election Odds
|Candidate||Oct. 12th Odds||Oct. 9th Odds||Oct. 6th Odds||Trending|
Odds as of Oct. 13th
Biden is showing the best numbers of any challenger in a Presidential election since scientific polling began in 1936.
Watch Biden Widen
Imagine possessing the foresight to put $100 on Biden on February 27, when his odds to win the Presidency were at +6463? You’d be looking at a payout of more than $6400 if Biden turns out to be the winner when Americans go to the polls on November 3rd.
All evidence is pointing to that outcome becoming a reality.
On average, the leading polls put Biden with around 52% or 53% of support and ahead of Trump in a range that falls between 10 and 11 points. Scientific polling was instituted in 1936. In 21 Presidential elections since, no challenger has ever put up these kinds of numbers.
"Clinton already cliched election, Bush can't comeback, analysts say"
AP story from this week in 1992. At the time, President Bush was trailing by 15 in the Gallup poll, 14 in NBC/WSJ, 14 in the LA Times and 17 in the Harris. He is the last incumbent to lose re-election: pic.twitter.com/ElPGlNw3qR
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) October 12, 2020
Only five of 21 challengers were even leading the race with three weeks to go until the election. Of the group, Bill Clinton in 1992 held the widest lead (five points). None of the challengers were polling at better than 48%.
Even if every undecided voter were to opt for Trump at this point, the math still suggests that he’d lose by five-six points.
Trump Losing the Battleground States
In America’s system of electing a President, national polling is less relevant. The Electoral College votes determine a winner.
State-by-state polling is often a more vital tell about the outcome. That’s also looking grim for Trump.
A CBS News poll released Monday shows Biden leading by six points in both Michigan (52-46) and Nevada (52-46). They’re dead even in Iowa, a state Trump won by nine points in 2016.
Trump 46%@MorningConsult, LV, 10/2-11
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 13, 2020
A New York Times/Siena College poll puts Biden up 51-41 in Wisconsin and 45-44 in Ohio. Quinnipiac University polls place Biden ahead in Florida (51-40) and Pennsylvania (54-41). Reuters/Ipsos have Biden ahead 48-46 in Arizona.
Even in the Republican stronghold of Texas, Trump finds himself tied with Biden (48-48) according to DailyKos polling. Biden is down one point in South Carolina, a state Trump carried by 14 points in 2016.
Republican Leadership Is Worrying
Nationwide, early polling stations are reporting record turnout numbers. High turnout is another traditional indication that the electorate is seeking change.
Republican leadership is clearly beginning to worry that Trump’s lengthening numbers might not only sink his campaign but several GOP 2020 House and Senate campaigns as well.
Polls don’t open for another hour here at the NAC in San Antonio and the line is already snaking into the parking lot. Gonna be a huge (!!!) day of early voting in Texas! pic.twitter.com/eLDe7zWn2c
— Sharon Yang (@sharonjqyang) October 13, 2020
Behind closed doors, reports are that belief among party leaders is that Trump has delivered nothing to convince anyone beyond his base of support that they are the better option for the country.
They fear that they’re losing ground and running out of time to turn the tide.
Every number indicates that to in fact be the case.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.