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Trump’s Election Odds Keep Sinking; Protests Overwhelm Positive Jobs Report

Donald Trump at a podium
The odds of Donald Trump winning a second term in the White House took another hit this week. Photo by Gage Skidmore [flikr].
  • For the second straight week, the odds of Donald Trump winning reelection in 2020 grew longer
  • Trump’s betting line lengthened from +101 to +108. Can he bounce back and beat Joe Biden?
  • The polls are not in the President’s favor

The re-election odds of US President Donald Trump are beginning to resemble that old lady in those medical alert ads.

Help, he’s falling. Can he get back up?

With Trump ranting and much of America protesting, his betting line to win a second term in the White House took another hit.

For the second successive week, Trump’s odds of returning to the Oval Office lengthened. He was at a betting line of +101 as recently as June 3rd. Today, his 2020 election odds have grown to +108.

2020 US Presidential Election Odds

Candidate June 3rd Odds June 8th Odds
Joe Biden -114 -123
Donald Trump +101 +108
Hillary Clinton +3850 +4150
Mike Pence +7625 +7250
Michelle Obama +9000 +9625
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson +10000 +10000
Andrew Cuomo +9375 +11000
Mark Cuban +12500 +12500
Nikki Haley +12500 +12750
Kamala Harris OFF +13283
Elizabeth Warren +13750 +16250
Bernie Sanders +16500 +23000

Odds as of June 8th.

Americans are slated to go to the polls on Nov. 3rd.

Re-Election Slip Sliding Away

During the 2016 battle for the Republican Presidential nomination, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush was blunt in his assessment of Trump. He described him as the chaos candidate, and predicted that, if elected, Trump would be a chaos President.

A perfect storm of tragic events have combined to see Bush’s prophecy come to fruition. The ongoing coronavirus outbreak started Trump’s downfall. The death of George Floyd at police hands may have completed his demise.

It wasn’t the incidents themselves that are doing him in. It’s Trump’s poor handling of both crises that has Americans turning away from him in droves. It’s an understatement to suggest that leadership has been lacking from the White House.

He ignored COVID-19. Trump suggested it was nothing to worry about. He downplayed its severity when acting to prevent the spread was what the country required.

When protesters took to the streets after Floyd’s death, instead of seeking to calm the furor, Trump fueled the fury. He called for protesters to be dealt with harshly. Trump sought to call up the military to attack his own people.

Trump’s odds of winning reelection have gone from -132  (56.9% probability) to +108 (48.1%) in the span of 12 days.

Going Down Swinging

Several polls are adding up to doom and gloom for Trump. An NBC News poll showed 80% of Americans felt that the country was out of control. The latest CNN poll has Democrat Joe Biden ahead of Trump 55-41.

In key swing states, the news is also bad. The Detroit Free Press has Biden 12 points in front of Trump in Michigan.

Trump’s numbers in Wisconsin, Ohio, Arizona, and even the traditional Republican stronghold of Texas are slipping.

Meanwhile, key Republicans, including Senators Mitt Romney and Lisa Murkowski and former Secretary of State Colin Powell, have spoken out publicly against Trump.

Biden His Time

Biden really hasn’t needed to do much. As Trump fumbles and flails, he’s eagerly digging his own grave.

Even a positive jobs report last week that showed unemployment was down to just 13.3% did little to stop public opinion from turning against the President.

For the most part, the President is hiding out in the White House. He’s literally fenced himself off from the American people.

There’s talk of Trump addressing the nation some time this week. Rarely, though, have Trump’s words proven a healing salve.

Americans are looking for leadership and a calming presence. The ability to provide that just doesn’t seem to be in Trump’s nature.

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