Trump’s Odds to Be Re-Elected in 2020 (-130) Are Shortest They Have Ever Been
- Donald Trump’s odds to be re-elected President are at -130, the lowest they’ve been
- Ten of the last 12 incumbent US Presidents have been re-elected
- Only three Republican incumbents have failed to win re-election since 1900
Maybe Donald Trump is a stable genius after all, because none of this makes a lick of common sense.
Those who suggest that Trump is playing some form of 3D chess might be on to something, because it seems the more wrong the man does, the more right he looks to the oddsmakers.
Covering a cross-section of leading sportsbooks, Trump’s chances of winning the 2020 mandate are the best they’ve ever been. He’s the -130 favorite in the Presidential election odds.
2020 US Presidential Election Odds
| Candidate | 2020 US Presidential Election Odds |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | EVEN |
| Joe Biden | +500 |
| Elizabeth Warren | +650 |
| Bernie Sanders | +1000 |
| Kamala Harris | +1000 |
| Pete Buttigieg | +1400 |
| Andrew Yang | +2500 |
| Tusli Gabbard | +4000 |
| Cory Booker | +6000 |
| Hillary Clinton | +6000 |
*Odds taken on 08/14/19.
Four of the last five US Presidential incumbents have been re-elected to a second term in the White House.
Normalizing Trump
No matter what Trump says or does, his base remains fiercely loyal.
Some of his recent tweets telling members of Congress who are also people of color to go back where they came from, including Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib, can be viewed as nothing but racist.
….it is done. These places need your help badly, you can’t leave fast enough. I’m sure that Nancy Pelosi would be very happy to quickly work out free travel arrangements!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 14, 2019
It was irrevelant to him that three of the four members of Congress he attacked were born in the USA, the country over which he governs. When Trump was called out for his racist rhetoric, he doubled down, attacking African-American member of Congress Elijah Cummings, who governs the district that includes Baltimore.
Baltimore, under the leadership of Elijah Cummings, has the worst Crime Statistics in the Nation. 25 years of all talk, no action! So tired of listening to the same old Bull…Next, Reverend Al will show up to complain & protest. Nothing will get done for the people in need. Sad!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 29, 2019
He’s playing to his base, and they are staying with him. It also doesn’t help that the mainstream media declines to call his words racist, instead couching them in catchphrases like racially charged, inflammatory, or insensitive.
The only purpose this serves is to normalize Trump’s behavior, when in fact his behavior is nothing close to being Presidential.
The Democrats Will Get Trump Re-Elected
Is there a political organization on the face of the earth that is more adept at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory than the Democratic party?
They couldn’t topple the bumbling George W. Bush in 2004. In 2016 they managed to put forth in Hillary Clinton perhaps the only candidate who could be less likeable than Trump.
Trump is joking about calling off the 2020 election and serving a 3rd term during a speech to energy workers in PA that is not supposed to be a campaign event pic.twitter.com/EI9jZA1HaO
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) August 13, 2019
The Democrat-controlled House has fumbled badly on the overwhelming need to bring impeachment proceedings against Trump.
At this point, with two dozen candidates running for their Presidential nomination, the Democrats are wasting precious time beating up on each other when their laser focus should be on beating Trump.
Trump’s Popularity Puzzles Experts
The same pollsters who were certain that Clinton would down Trump in 2016 are scratching their heads over his enduring popularity. Trump appears to be on a daily mission to prove how unfit he is for office. But hey, that strategy paid dividends for him the last time around.
I'm not sure why prices on Trump re-election at betting markets (and I think this is matched by the conventional wisdom writ large) have shifted strongly in his favor over the past few months when the fundamentals don't seem to have changed much. https://t.co/qpmkmQfImF pic.twitter.com/b5tKsGF3me
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 5, 2019
Trump’s current approval rating is 42 percent, just a touch below where Barack Obama sat (44 percent) at this point through his first term.
It’s The Economy, Stupid
There are factors capable of changing things between now and November 2020. If the economy tanks – and many financial experts are fearful of recession – that would significantly damage Trump’s brand.
Trade uncertainty index and Trump approval rating.
One to watch ahead of Nov. 2020 pic.twitter.com/8ZjqbZyaJH
— Tom Orlik (@TomOrlik) August 13, 2019
Trump’s racist tropes may play well with some Republicans, but not so much with minority voters, many of whom took a pass on voting in 2016. They mightn’t be so inclined in 2020.
If none of these elements emerge, America might very well be looking at four more years of The Donald.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
