- The latest 2020 election odds show Donald Trump at odds of +120
- It’s the first time since Feb. 21 he’s been given a less than 50% chance of earning a second term in the White House
- The US House of Representatives voted 232-196 in favor of an impeachment resolution against Trump
The House remains divided but are the odds of Donald Trump’s re-election as POTUS beginning to turn against him?
As the US House of Representatives voted 232-196 to endorse Trump’s impeachment inquiry, oddsmakers have released its latest 2020 Presidential election odds. Though Trump remains the favorite in this betting market, the line on him is +120.
2020 Presidential Election Odds
Odds taken on November 1st.
It’s the first time since Feb. 21 that oddsmakers have given Trump a less than 50% chance of winning re-election to a second term in the Oval Office.
Is the Noose Tightening Around Trump?
Testimony relating to the impeachment of Trump continues before the House. With each passing day, the evidence mounts that his Administration was seeking to force the Ukrainian government to dig up dirt on a potential political opponent in the upcoming Presidential election – namely Joe Biden – or the US would withhold Congressionally-approved military aid from Ukraine.
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz: "Morrison… most definitely corroborated particularly Amb. Taylor's testimony and really virtually every witness that I have heard's testimony that the President did indeed use the authority of his office to pressure the president of Ukraine." pic.twitter.com/8NJCaIgdkp
— The Hill (@thehill) November 1, 2019
White House advisor Tim Morrison testified Friday. He appeared to establish that there was a quid pro quo between Trump’s request for an investigation into Biden’s son Hunter, who worked for a Ukrainian firm, and the withholding of military aid.
Every Republican voted no in the House ballot to approve the impeachment resolution. Two Democrats voted no. Both reside in districts that went heavily for Trump in the 2016 election.
Do Poll Numbers Indicate Re-Election in Jeopardy?
An AP-NORC poll reported that 61% of Americans think Trump doesn’t respect democratic institutions and norms. That total included 26% of Republicans.
However, 85% of Republicans gave their approval to Trump’s performance as President. Just seven percent of Democrats approved of Trump’s work in the White House.
Note: this is *before* public hearings.
If Trump is impeached in the House and this approval rating among Republicans reached 60% or below, you're going to see some Senate Republicans get real patriotic, real fast during the trial phase. #fridaymorninghttps://t.co/WCR2YUp31D
— Holly Figueroa O'Reilly (@AynRandPaulRyan) November 1, 2019
ABC News and the Washington Post also conducted a poll. It showed that Republican approval of Trump slid from 81 to 74 percent in the past month.
Overall, Trump’s approval rating stands at 42%.
Eighteen percent of Republicans said that Trump should be impeached and removed from office.
Rigging Re-Election for Trump?
The Minnesota GOP released ballots for the state’s March 3, 2020 Republican Presidential Primary, and they looked very much like a ballot from a Soviet-era style election. There was only one candidate listed – Trump.
I've received a prepared statement from Republican Party of Minnesota Chairwoman Jennifer Carnahan: "President Trump is extremely popular in Minnesota and my job as Chairwoman is to make sure we deliver our 10 electoral votes to the President on November 3, 2020."
— Patrick Condon (@patricktcondon) October 31, 2019
There are three other candidates for the 2020 Republican Presidential nomination – former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld, former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford and former U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh of Illinois – and none of them were listed. There is also no space for a write-in candidate.
Minnesota is the 5th state to remove Trump's GOP primary opponents from the ballot. Very democratic (not).
— Amy Siskind ?️? (@Amy_Siskind) October 31, 2019
While not illegal, it’s establishing a dangerous precedent. State law says the ballot cannot be changed once it’s set.
That would mean if Trump is impeached, convicted and removed from office prior to the 2020 election, Minnesota would not have a Republican Presidential candidate in the election.
Impeachment Holds the Key
If the Democrats want to topple Trump in 2020, maintaining a steely-eyed focus on the Ukraine scandal looks to be the key element.
Richard Nixon, facing certain conviction, resigned before the House could vote to approve articles of impeachment. Trump, however, may well become the first president to be impeached and then seek re-election. pic.twitter.com/adPLisWPlJ
— Threepenny Writer (@sanmonbunshi1) November 1, 2019
Ever since the story broke of Trump’s attempt to basically blackmail a foreign country into helping him win the election, all his numbers have been steadily trending downward.
As more information gets into the public domain, the worse the odds will get for Trump.
Pick: Elizabeth Warren (+300).