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Hollywood Casino 400 Picks, Odds & Betting Trends

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Racing

Updated Sep 6, 2023 · 7:38 AM PDT

Denny Hamlin is the +450 favorite to win the Hollywood Casino 400
Sep 2, 2023; Darlington, South Carolina, USA; NASCAR Xfinity Series driver Denny Hamlin (19) celebrates in Victory Lane after winning the NASCAR Xfinity Series Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help A Hero 200 at Darlington Raceway. Mandatory Credit: David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports
  • Denny Hamlin is the +450 favorite to win the NASCAR Cup Series Hollywood Casino 400 on Sunday, September 10 at Kansas Speedway
  • Defending champion Bubba Wallace is offered at odds of +1200
  • Below are the Hollywood Casino 400 predictions, picks, and betting odds ahead of Sunday afternoon’s race

It’s been a rough couple of weeks on the NASCAR Cup Series for veteran driver Denny Hamlin, but a big bounce back performance is being expected from him at this week’s Hollywood Casino 400. He’s set as the +450 favorite to win the race.

That’s not at all surprising, considering Hamlin’s performance at the track in recent years. He’s finished among the top five in four of the past six fall Kansas races, including a win in 2019. Hamlin was the winner of this year’s Kansas spring race.

That’s a big difference from his past two starts on the circuit. Hamlin was 25th last week at Darlington and 26th the week prior at Daytona. Signing a new multi-year deal with Joe Gibbs Racing earlier this week, he figures to be fired up.

The table below lists the complete slate of NASCAR Cup Series odds for the Hollywood Casino 400 from Kansas Speedway (win, podium finish, and top-five finish). Under the table, find the Hollywood Casino 400 predictions and best bets for this weekend’s NASCAR action.

Hollywood Casino 400 Odds

Driver Odds to Win Podium Finish Odds  Top Five Odds
Denny Hamlin +450 +130 -160
Martin Truex Jr +550 +160 -135
Kyle Larson +550 +160 -135
William Byron +750 +200 +100
Tyler Reddick +900 +250 +125
Christopher Bell +900 +250 +125
Bubba Wallace +1200 +350 +150
Kyle Busch +1400 +400 +180
Ross Chastain +1600 +450 +200
Chris Buescher +1600 +450 +200
Kevin Harvick +2000 +550 +250
Brad Keselowski +2000 +550 +250
Ryan Blaney +2200 +600 +275
Joey Logano +2200 +600 +275
Chase Elliott +2200 +600 +275
Alex Bowman +3000 +800 +350
Ty Gibbs +3500 +1000 +450
Daniel Suarez +8000 +1600 +900
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +15000 +4000 +1800
Erik Jones +15000 +4000 +1800

Defending champion Bubba Wallace is set with odds of +1200 to repeat that performance. Jeff Gordon (2001-02) and Joey Logano (2014-15) are the only drivers to win the Hollywood Casino 400 in successive years.

NASCAR drivers rumble around this 1.5-mile oval for 400.5 miles and 267 laps, with an 80-80-107 stage lap setup when the flag drops. This Sunday afternoon race begins at 2pm ET on USA.



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Odds as of September 5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings promo to bet on NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 or DraftKings Kentucky if you are a resident of KY. 

Track Position Vital at Kansas Speedway

The surface at Kansas Speedway was recently repaved, which makes it much more difficult to pass during the race. Not that coming from off the pace has ever proven to be an effective strategy at this track.

Hollywood Casino 400 Recent Winners

Year Race Winner Pole Position Most Laps Led
2022 Bubba Wallace – 23XI Racing Tyler Reddick – Richard Childress Racing Alex Bowman – Hendrick Motorsports
2021 Kyle Larson – Hendrick Motorsports Kyle Larson – Hendrick Motorsports Kyle Larson – Hendrick Motorsports

Each of the last seven winners of the Hollywood Casino 400 has started among the top 10 places on the grid. Among the past 15 winners, 13 began the race in one of the first six rows.

Plenty of Kansas Winners in Race Field

The last 10 winners of the Kansas fall race are all entered in the field for this year’s Hollywood Casino 400. They include Larson, Logano (three times), Kevin Harvick (twice), Hamlin, Wallace, Martin Truex Jr and Chase Elliott.

Toyota finished 1-2-3-5 in last year’s race and has won six of the past eight races at Kansas. But in 2021, Chevrolet ran 1-2-4-6. Ford has won just once in the past seven Hollywood Casino 400 races.

Hollywood Casino 400 Predictions & Picks

Larson is coming here off a win. Two years ago, he dominated this race, earning pole position, leading the most laps and ultimately winning the race. It was the sixth win at Kansas for Hendrick Motorsports, which leads all teams. Larson has finished in the top four in five of his last nine starts at Kansas Speedway.  Currently, he is the +350 favorite to win the title in the NASCAR Cup Series odds.

Logano has won this event a record three times (2014, 2015, 2020).  Harvick (2013, 2016) is a two-time winner. He’s finished in the top two at Kansas eight times since 2013.

Larson (2021), Truex (2017) and Kyle Busch (2015) all won the Hollywood Casino 400 in the playoffs en route to a NASCAR Cup Series championship. Truex was also the last driver to sweep the spring and fall races at Kansas.

Here are our best bets:

  • Top Pick: Kevin Harvick to Win (+2000)
  • Other Contenders:
  • Denny Hamlin (+450), Kyle Larson (+550), Martin Truex (+550), William Byron (+750)
  • Longshots: Tyler Reddick (+900), Bubba Wallace (+1200)
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