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NASCAR Dixie Vodka 400 Odds and Picks – Austin Dillon’s Time to Shine

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Racing

Updated Feb 25, 2021 · 10:00 AM PST

Dixie Vodka 400 Austin Dillon
Austin Dillon prepares his gear before getting in his car on pit road before the NASCAR Daytona 500 auto race at Daytona International Speedway, Sunday, Feb. 14, 2021, in Daytona Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)
  • The Dixie Vodka 400 is set for Sunday, February 28th with the race starting at 1:30 PM EST
  • Traditionally, this race is held in November but was raced in June last year due to COVID-19
  • Which drivers are a good bet for this Sunday? Check out the odds, analysis, and best bets below

After an extended stay in Daytona Beach, Florida, the drivers now head to Miami for the Dixie Vodka 400. Denny Hamlin won this race last June and is favored to repeat in the Dixie Vodka 400 odds.

The race will take place at Miami-Homestead Speedway this Sunday, February 28th with the start time of 1:30 PM EST.

Christopher Bell won last week’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 253, but Chase Elliott is still the favorite in the NASCAR Cup Series odds.

Is Hamlin the best bet, or is there value with some of the other drivers?

Dixie Vodka 400 Odds

Driver Odds
Denny Hamlin +500
Chase Elliott +600
Kevin Harvick +600
Martin Truex Jr. +700
Kyle Larson +800
Kyle Busch +1000
Joey Logano +1000
Brad Keselowski +1300
Ryan Blaney +1600
Tyler Reddick +2200
Christopher Bell +2800
William Byron +2800
Alex Bowman +3300
Aric Almirola +4000
Kurt Busch +4000
Austin Dillon +4000
Bubba Wallace +6000
Matt DiBenedetto +6600

Odds taken Feb. 25 at DraftKings

Hop On Denny Hamlin

Not many drivers are performing better than Denny Hamlin these days as his results so far are a fifth at the Daytona 500 (where he led 98 laps) and a third at the Daytona Road Course last week (where he led for five laps). Those are the main reasons why he’s favored to win on Sunday.

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The other big reason is that Hamlin performs well at Homestead. He won the race here last June and has been in the top 10 in seven of his last eight outings here, with the lone miss being a 12th. In that span, he has two wins here. The way he’s racing these days, it is tough to bet against him.

Pick: Denny Hamlin Outright Winner (+500)

Bet On Kyle Busch?

Few drivers have done better at Homestead than Kyle Busch. Since the start of 2018, he has the best average driver finish of anyone at this track at 3.67, leading for a whopping 17.85% of the laps. Over his last six showings here, he’s been in the top six every time while collecting two wins and a runner-up.

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The concern with betting him for outrights is that he hasn’t looked great to start the season. He was 35th last week and 14th at the Daytona 500. Last week’s result isn’t all too concerning, though, as it was a road course. The 10/1 payout on him winning looks appetizing, but a safer play is Busch to finish in the top 10.

Pick: Kyle Busch Top 10 (-225)

Dixie Vodka 400 Past Winners

Year Driver
2020 Denny Hamlin
2019 Kyle Busch
2018 Joey Logano
2017 Martin Truex Jr.
2016 Jimmie Johson

Austin Dillon’s Favorite Track

If you’re looking for a flier this week, consider betting on Austin Dillon to crack the Top 10. He’s only done it twice (his last two races here), but he’s been in that range since 2015. Over his last six starts at Homestead, he’s gone seventh, eighth, 11th, 11th, 12th, and 14th. Over the last three years, this is his best track, with an average driver finish of 8.67.

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Dillon has done alright so far this season, finishing 11th at The Clash, winning The Duel #2, and placing third at the Daytona 500. He finished 34th last Sunday, but that can be omitted as it was a road course. He’s a bit of a longshot here, but it feels like a calculated play to bet him for the Top 10 prop.

Pick: Austin Dillon Top 10 (+150)

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