Ruoff Mortgage 500 Odds, Predictions and Picks
- Kyle Larson is a favorite once more at the Ruoff Mortgage 500 on Sunday, March 13th, 2022
- Who can continue their success at Phoenix?
- We’ve got you next-gen covered with all the Ruoff Mortgage 500 odds and trends ahead of Sunday afternoon’s race.
NASCAR heads to Avondale, Arizona, for the fourth race of the 2022 season. The race comes from the Phoenix International Raceway. The odds look closer to expectations this week. Kyle Larson is the early favorite yet again at +400 in the NASCAR Ruoff Mortgage 500 odds. Watch the cars, who showed good speed last week. We will discuss that below.
This is a week after the Pennzoil 400, where Kyle Larson got nabbed with a speeding in pit lane penalty and Alex Bowman rode the Hendrick wave to victory.
Let’s examine the Ruoff Mortgage 500 odds and figure out which drivers are the best bets.
Ruoff Mortgage 500 Odds
| Driver | Odds to Win | Odds to Finish Top Three | Odds to Finish Top Ten |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +400 | +110 | -435 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +700 | +200 | -278 |
| Kyle Busch | +700 | +235 | -240 |
| Chase Elliott | +800 | +235 | -240 |
| Joey Logano | +800 | +235 | -240 |
| Denny Hamlin | +900 | +265 | -220 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1200 | +325 | -182 |
| William Byron | +1400 | +400 | -155 |
| Kevin Harvick | +1800 | +500 | -155 |
| Alex Bowman | +2000 | +550 | -115 |
| Tyler Reddick | +2200 | +600 | -106 |
| Alec Almirola | +2500 | +650 | +105 |
| Christopher Bell | +2500 | +650 | +105 |
| Austin Cindric | +4000 | +1000 | +140 |
| Brad Keselowski | +4000 | +1000 | +140 |
| Kurt Busch | +5000 | +1200 | +170 |
| Ross Chastain | +5000 | +1200 | +170 |
| Chase Briscoe | +5000 | +1600 | +190 |
| Austin Dillon | +5000 | +1600 | +190 |
| Erik Jones | +6000 | +1600 | +190 |
Odds as of March 10th at Barstool Sportsbook App
Arizona sports bettors are absolutely pumped. The Phoenix International Raceway has a weekend full of events leading up to the Sunday race.
Kyle Larson Favored Yet Again in Ruoff Mortgage 500 Odds
NASCAR drivers will run on the 1.022-mile Phoenix Raceway when the flag drops for the Sunday afternoon race beginning around 3:30 PM EDT. This track should deliver more expected results. It is a shorter tri-oval track that favors those that thrive on lower-wear scenarios. Conditions will be amazing, with Mostly Sunny skies and temperatures likely in the Low 80s.
Larson has a great track record on the Phoenix track, with an average finish of 4.4 since 2019. His driver rating of 104.1 ranks seventh among all active drivers. The defending series champion won here just last year at the series finale and led 107 laps.
Currently, Larson again is the favorite at +400 odds (started +450). Teammate Chase Elliott now stands at +800 (+700 at Caesars Sportsbook). But, when it comes to Caesars Sportsbook, the No. 5 driver sees his odds shorten to +450 (opened +600 briefly).
Now, what could be in store from Phoenix this week?
.@KyleLarsonRacin: "It didn't seem too much different than the previous car. It felt pretty normal."#NASCAR
— Jim Utter (@jim_utter) January 26, 2022
William Byron and Alex Bowman have the same odds at Caesars (+1400 and +2000 respectively) and could be good top-10 candidates. Testing showed this team to be superior in January.
Recent Winners
| Year | Race Winner | Pole Position | Most Laps Led |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Martin Truex Jr. — Joe Gibbs Racing | Brad Keselowski — Team Penske | Joey Logano — Team Penske |
| 2020 | Joey Logano — Team Penske | Chase Elliott — Hendricks Motorsport Racing | Chase Elliott — Hendricks Motorsport Racing |
| 2019 | Kyle Busch — Joe Gibbs Racing | Ryan Blaney — Team Penske | Kyle Busch — Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 2018 | Kevin Harvick — Stewart-Haas Racing | Martin Truex Jr. — Furniture Row Racing | Kyle Busch — Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 2017 | Ryan Newman. — Richard Childress Racing | Joey Logano — Team Penske | Kyle Busch — Joe Gibbs Racing |
The race is usually 312 laps and has been decided four times in overtime since 2011.
Can Joe Gibbs Racing Continue the March Pattern?
Sports bettors have some intriguing trends to go on at the tri-oval. The Joe Gibbs Racing drivers took another hit in the NASCAR Cup Series odds, but here is where things may get spiced up a bit.
There was a slight surprise from Las Vegas last week.
Though not particularly relevant for Phoenix this week, here are the median lap time rankings from last week in Las Vegas. Joe Gibbs Racing showed up at the playoff track. #NASCAR pic.twitter.com/KNMVdk37EM
— Austin Swaim (@ASwaim3) March 8, 2022
The top two median times were from none other than Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin. Then, there is Kyle Busch who has won previously at Phoenix and has led the most laps three times in the last five “Spring” races. JGR tends to lead laps and run fast here later in races punctuated by the Truex Jr. win last year.
Ruoff Mortgage 500 Predictions & Picks
The driver that ranks the best heading into this week is Joey Logano. The No. 22 Team Penske driver has led 22.44% of the laps here since 2019 (+800 on Caesars and Barstool).
Last fall after just missing out on competing for the championship, Joey Logano finished 11th at Phoenix (early vacation?).
In the three Phoenix races prior to that he had results of 1st, 2nd and 3rd. pic.twitter.com/t9PFl2j0PG
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) March 8, 2022
There are other reasonable options to look at. Logano is one to look at (mentioned above) along with Elliott. Christopher Bell is +2500 in the Ruoff Mortgage 500 odds at Barstool and Caesars Sportsbook. He has to be considered along with Kevin Harvick, who has won at Phoenix five times.
Speaking of Elliott, he won the 2020 Fall race and looked great previously in the Spring. More importantly, he was fast in the shorter runs. If this race relies on that, then the No. 9 car has to be watched at +800 on Barstool Sportsbook.
The stage format is 75-115-122 for laps. Do we finally get less than double-digit cautions this week? Don’t count on it.
Here are our best bets:
- Top Pick: Chase Elliott to win (+800 at Barstool Sportsbook)
- Middle Shooters: Kevin Harvick (+1800 at Barstool), Christopher Bell (+2500)
- Longshots: Ross Chastain (+5000), Austin Dillon (+6000)
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A journalist veteran for over two decades, Chris has taught the gamut of fantasy hockey sports online from injuries to news to prospects, and more. He has bet on several sports and written sports betting articles about the NBA, MLB, NCAA football, the NFL, and NHL for USA Today.
