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2019 MLS Season Preview: MLS Cup Favorites & Best Bets

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Apr 2, 2020 · 1:15 PM PDT

Zlatan Ibrahimovic
Los Angeles Galaxy forward Zlatan Ibrahimovic makes a run in the first half of an MLS match between the LA Galaxy and Sporting Kansas City. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)
  • The 2019 Major League Soccer season kicks off on Saturday March 2nd
  • The New York Red Bulls open as favorites to win MLS Cup 2019
  • Can Atlanta United defend their title with a new coach and the transfer of Miguel Almirón?

The Major League Soccer season kicks off March 2nd for a 24th season. The New York Red Bulls have opened with the shortest average odds to lift MLS Cup at +500, closely followed by last year’s champions Atlanta United at +550. The LA Galaxy have the shortest odds of any Western Conference side at +600.

2019 MLS Cup Odds

Team 2019 MLS Cup Odds
New York Red Bulls +500
Atlanta United +500
LA Galaxy +600
New York City FC +900
LAFC +1000
Seattle Sounders +1000
Portland Timbers +1200
Sporting Kansas City +1200
Toronto FC +1400
DC United +1600
FC Dallas +2000
Philadelphia Union +2000
Columbus Crew +3300
Real Salt Lake +4000
Chicago Fire +5000

*Odds taken 03/01/19. Click on the link in the table above to see all odds.

Eastern Finalists Return as Favorites

The Red Bulls set a new MLS regular season points record with 71 as Supporters’ Shield winners. However they once again came up short in the playoffs and were eliminated by Atlanta in the Eastern Conference Championship.

After taking over mid-way through last season, New York coach Chris Armas had a full offseason to prepare for 2019. Adjustments will have to be made with the loss of impactful midfielder Tyler Adams who has moved on to NYRB’s sister club RB Leipzig in Germany.

NYRB have been one of MLS’s most consistent clubs and have one of MLS’s most reliable scorers in Bradley Wright-Phillips. BWP scored 20 goals last year and has 105 goals over his past five seasons. He will turn 34 though during the first month of the season.

The Red Bulls will be hoping new TAM signing Mathias Jorgensen from Denmark can add some depth on offense and possibly be a star player for the future.

New York participated in CONCACAF Champions League (CCL) play already this month and defeated Dominican club Atlético Pantoja 2-0 and 3-0 to advance to the quarter-finals.

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Can Atlanta Repeat?

Champions Atlanta United won MLS Cup in only their second season in the league. They did it with a star-studded lineup, an exciting brand of play, record-breaking crowds, and an accomplished coach in Tata Martino.

2019 sees some turnover with Tata having left for the Mexican National Team and playmaker Miguel Almirón now plying his trade in Newcastle of the Premier League.

However, MLS goalscoring record-breaker Josef Martínez has returned on a new five-year deal and attacking midfielder Pity Martínez has been signed from Copa Libertadores winning side River Plate. Martínez was named 2018 South American Footballer of the Year.

Martínez (Josef) scored 31 goals last year and is expected to have another successful year in ATL.

The Five Stripes scored the most goals in the league last year with 70 and had the highest expected goals for and expected goals for/game in the league.

With Martino gone, in comes new head coach Frank de Boer. The Dutchman has coached in Ajax, Inter Milan and Crystal Palace. He won four titles in the Eredivisie with Ajax.

Atlanta had an early hiccup in CCL play losing 3-1 in Costa Rica to Herediano. However they rebounded with a 4-0 home win on Thursday to also advance to the quarter-finals.

Los Angeles Favored in Western Conference

Notice how I just say Los Angeles, despite the city being home to two teams. That’s because both the LA Galaxy and LAFC are top favorites for MLS Cup in the West. This, despite the Galaxy failing to make the playoffs and LAFC being upset in the Knockout Round.

The Galaxy are no doubt loaded with talent and with Zlatan Ibrahimović in the lineup will always be dangerous. The Swede scored 22 goals in his first MLS season and has his sights set on “breaking every MLS record.”

Outside of a new head coach in Guillermo Barros Schelotto and general manager in Dennis te Kloese, not a whole lot has changed with the Galaxy this offseason. Zlatan is now on a DP contract and Diego Polenta has been signed from Uruguay to help the backline.

They’re actually down a striker with this week’s sale of Ola Kamara to Chinese Super League club Shenzhen FC.

Will LAFC Improve in Year 2?

2018 was the expansion year for the Galaxy’s new crosstown rivals LAFC. The new side were one of the league’s most exciting teams and finished third in the Western Conference with 57 points. It was the best-ever first season for any MLS team.

LAFC had a 16-9-9 record while scoring 68 goals, only two off Atlanta’s league-leading 70.

LAFC had a 16-9-9 record while scoring 68 goals, only two off Atlanta’s league-leading 70. Defensively, they had issues in allowing 52 goals, which was fewer than only Real Salt Lake’s 58 among playoff teams.

Unfortunately it was that same RSL side that ended LAFC’s year in the Knockout Round of the playoffs despite LAFC having 63% possession and holding a 20-4 edge in shots.

In their second MLS season, Bob Bradley’s men will have to improve defensively, but should still be exciting to watch up top. Carlos Vela is back for another year after a 2018 which saw him score 14 goals and tally 13 assists.

Both Diego Rossi and Adama Diomande scored 12 goals last season and create a formidable strike unit for LAFC.

That doesn’t even include Andre Horta, who joined last season from Portugal on a DP contract, yet managed to see very little playing time.

It also doesn’t include mid-season pickup Christian Ramirez, who had nine goals in 2018, or offseason transfer Rodolfo Zelaya, who’s won the Golden Boot in El Salvador’s top league three times.

MLS Cup Value Bets

Let’s look at a few teams not among the favorites who may be offering a little more value and who could be set for improvement. DC United got off to a terrible start last season. But with the opening of their new home field and the arrival of Wayne Rooney, United were one of the best teams from mid-summer on.

They only lost two of their final 17 matches before being eliminated in the Knockout Round of the playoffs.

DC United only lost two of their final 17 matches before being eliminated in the Knockout Round of the playoffs.

DC have added a new DP in 21-year-old Lucas Rodriguez from Estudiantes. Rodriguez has played for the Argentine Under-20 national team and will be expected to add to DC’s attacking options. At +1600 they look awfully tempting.

Another side that has to improve this year are the Montreal Impact. They won just four of their opening 15 games in 2018, which essentially sunk their season. However, over their final 19 games they lost just four times to end up missing the playoffs by only four points.

They’ve added forward Maximiliano Urruti from FC Dallas, who scored eight goals last season and who has 29 over the past three years. Should they improve at all and make the playoffs in 2019, their current price of +5000 will leave lots of hedging flexibility.

In the West, no team is likely more in-form right now than SKC. Take preseason for what it’s worth, but SKC went undefeated at 5-1-0 during their warm up matches this year. What they lack in star power they make up for in depth and at +1200 definitely offer some value.

When the games started to mean something in CCL, Sporting showed up to play with 3-0 and 2-0 wins over Mexican side Toluca. They join New York, Atlanta, and also Houston in the CCL quarter-finals.

It’s early, but if I’m picking one best bet for MLS Cup it’s going to be LAFC at +1000.

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