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Atletico Madrid -250 Favorite to Win 2020 La Liga Title Without Barcelona & Real Madrid

Carlos Verde

by Carlos Verde in Soccer News

Updated Apr 1, 2020 · 1:59 PM PDT

Atleti manager Diego Simeone
La Liga's Atletico Madrid travel to Germany to face Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday. Photo by Carlos Delgado (Wiki Commons).
  • Retooled Atletico Madrid favored at -250 to win La Liga in absence of Real Madrid and Barcelona
  • Valencia (+600) and Sevilla (+800) only other real challengers
  • Atletico Madrid has finished ahead of Real Madrid in each of the last two seasons

Betting soccer futures isn’t just limited to taking outright winners. In the case of La Liga, we’re looking at who could win the league without some of its heavy-hitters.

With online sportsbooks offering a prop on which team will win La Liga without giants Barcelona and Real Madrid, we are here to reinforce what the odds tell you: take Atletico Madrid.

To Win La Liga Without Real Madrid & Barcelona Odds

Team 2018-19 Finish (w/o BAR/RM) Odds
Atletico Madrid 1st -250
Valencia 2nd +600
Sevilla 4th +800
Athletic Bilbao 6th +1200
Villareal 12th +1600
Real Betis 8th +2000
Real Sociedad 7th +2500
Eibar 10th +3300
Celta Vigo 15th +4000
Getafe 3rd +4000

Odds taken 8/12/19. 

The Favorite: Atletico (-250)

Diego Simeone’s Rojiblancos had a summer of serious movement, the most notable of which saw Portuguese wonderkid Joao Felix join on a record 120M-euro deal from Benfica. Atleti also looked strong in pre-season play — for what that’s worth — scoring a 7-3 win over Real Madrid in New Jersey and a 2-1 win over Juventus in Stockholm.

Historic trends also tell us Simeone’s squad is a very safe bet: Atletico finished ahead of Real Madrid in 2017-18 and 2018-19, and has not finished outside the top three (or below anybody other than Barça and Real) since 2011-12.



Atletico’s Challengers: Valencia (+600) & Sevilla (+800)

There are only two other genuine challengers for Atletico in Sevilla (+800) and Valencia (+600); the former has not finished ahead of Atletico since 2010-11, while the latter has not since 2011-12.

It remains to be seen whether new boss Julen Lopetegui can steer Sevilla back to being a regular top-five squad; the Spain youth coach struggled in his only previous high-profile club job at Porto.

At Valencia, a good summer has seen manager Marcelino add quality pieces in goalkeeper Jasper Cillessen (Barcelona) and forward Maxi Gomez (Celta); last year was a wild ride for the Valencians, who began terribly but caught fire down the stretch to finish fourth, and their summer additions should have them solidly in the top five this season.

It is interesting to note a lack of odds love for Getafe (+4000), which finished a club-best 5th in La Liga last season but is expected to struggle with fixture congestion and regress to a more typical mid-table finish.


Given that Atletico added some quality and Simeone’s club consistently punches above the weight of its squad on paper, it’s unlikely either will give it a serious run on this prop bet.

Pick: Atletico Madrid (-250)

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