- New Bundesliga season kicks off on August 16
- Sportsbooks nare offering markets without Bayern
- Dortmund lead the way
The new Bundesliga kicks off this Friday, August 16 at 2:30 PM ET when title-holders Bayern Munich play host to Hertha Berlin.
Bayern starts the season again as hot favorites and will be looking to make it a staggering eight titles in a row. Given their predicted superiority over the rest of the league, online betting sites opened some markets with them removed from the action, as well as some betting options for which sides will finish in the top four.
2019/20 Bundesliga Props
|Odds to Win Without Bayern Munich
|Odds to Finish Top 4
Odds taken 08/13/19.
With Bayern removed from the betting, Dortmund are the -145 favorites, but the question is, are they easy-money for this prop, or could another team finish second and “win”?
In the betting for top four, Dortmund is a huge -1200 favorite, while based on their odds, many others are also in the mix.
So, we’ll have a look for some value and see if we can identify which one offers the best bet.
Bayern is excluded from the betting for a reason – they are the most successful club in German soccer and if they win the Bundesliga this season, it will be their 30th title in total and the eighth on the bounce.
Interestingly, they only won last season’s title by a narrow two-point margin and it was only secured on the final weekend, with Dortmund pushing them the whole way.
After six months out with a knee injury, Bayern Munich's record signing Lucas Hernandez finally trained with his teammates today.
He'll feel just like a new signing…? pic.twitter.com/TMZXUuQipT
— DW Sports (@dw_sports) August 6, 2019
Also, it’s been a summer of change at the Allianz Arena with some big-name departures – Mats Hummels, Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery among them – but they have splashed some cash to bring in centre-back Lucas Hernandez from Atletico Madrid to replace Hummels.
Further new faces will arrive before the window closes, and while Dortmund will push them again, oddsmakers looked to have called it right and are well justified in opening these ‘without Bayern’ markets.
With no Bayern in the betting, it’s hard to make a case for Dortmund not ‘winning’ the league. In fact, BVB will fancy their chances of winning it with Bayern, such is the confidence they have gained from taking them close last season.
They have also done some impressive business in the summer transfer market. In addition to the re-signing of the experienced Hummels they have also brought in Thorgan Hazard, Nico Schulz, Julian Brandt, Paco Alcacer and Mateu Morey for a combined 120 million euros.
— Faisal HQ (@iF2is) August 7, 2019
Their fans in the daunting Westfalenstadion will be expecting great things, and in truth, there is little value in the -145 on offer for them to win the ‘without Bayern’ league. They are going to be strong again and we expect them to be close to the Bavarians.
RB finished third in last season’s league and undoubtedly benefit from being a well-funded club, third only in ambition and spending power behind Bayern and BVB. That final step to close the gap between them and the top two is a big one though and we’re not sure they have done enough to close it this time around.
RB Leipzig new signing Ademola Lookman is “open to the idea” of switching his international allegiance to play for Nigeria.
(? Sky Sports) pic.twitter.com/vVxGZbYVdl
— Soar Super Eagles (@SSE_NGA) August 2, 2019
What is interesting, however, is that last season they finished just 12 points behind the champions, the equivalent of four wins, and actually conceded fewer goals – 29 compared to Bayern’s 32.
If nothing else, this demonstrates they have a really solid base to work from and if they could bring in a couple of new players who could add another 15/20 goals to their season’s tally it could be a very interesting campaign for them.
Leverkusen finished 18 points behind Dortmund last season and their business over the summer so far suggests they are doing everything they can to try and close that gap.
2⃣6⃣ – Happy Birthday, Kerem Demirbay ????⚽️?? pic.twitter.com/M5AvR3jI7k
— UEFA.com DE (@UEFAcom_de) July 3, 2019
To date, they have spent total of 60 million euros on four new faces – the most high profile being midfielder Kerem Demirbay from Hoffenheim for 30 million – and there is plenty to suggest they will be stronger this season.
Whether they have enough to top Dortmund is another question, but they do look well set for a top four finish.
After finishing ninth last season, Hoffenheim will be hopeful of a better 2019/20 and they are definitely a club on an upward trajectory. But sensible summer spending of 20 million euros tells us they’re not trying to buy success.
The signing of Danish winger Robert Skov looks a good one, and they do look well prepared to improve on last season’s finish, but top four looks a big ask.
Despite losing Thorgan Hazard, Monchengladbach have recruited well over the summer and the 24 million euros they received for the Belgian looks to have been well spent with Stefan Lainer, Breel Embolo and Marcus Thuram all arriving at Borussia-Park.
2⃣6⃣ – Happy Birthday, Stefan Lainer ????⚽️?? pic.twitter.com/XA7cQtwuNp
— UEFA.com DE (@UEFAcom_de) August 27, 2018
Their fifth-place finish last season looks more than achievable this, and they may even make fourth.
Their sixth place in 2018/19 was a good return – level on points with Monchengladbach – and having spent 27 million euros to date over the summer, they are looking to improve.
The signing of Austrian midfielder Xaver Schlager looks to be a good one and the Wolves are well and truly in the scrap for top four.
Our picks: ‘Winners’ without Bayern – Dortmund (-145) / Top 4 Finish – Bayern Munich, Dortmund (-1200), RB Leipzig (-250), Leverkusen (+125)