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Bristol City vs Swansea Odds & Prediction – EFL Championship Round 4

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer

Aug 19, 2021 · 5:46 PM PDT

Bristol City vs Swansea
Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins, centre, duels for the ball with Bristol City's Zak Vyner, right, and Bristol City's Tommy Rowe during the English League Cup soccer match between Bristol City and Aston Villa at the Ashton Gate, in Bristol, England, Thursday, Sept. 24, 2020. (Peter Cziborra/Pool via AP)
  • Bristol City hosts Swansea on Friday, August 20th at 2:45 PM EST in the fourth round of the 2021/22 EFL Championship season
  • Bristol City are delighted with a win, draw, and loss to start the season while Swansea are in desperation mode after only gathering a point in three matches
  • Get the odds, our analysis and betting prediction below

The EFL Championship is already onto its fourth round of matches and this weekend kicks off with a game that has the potential to be really exciting. Bristol City hosts Swansea at the Ashton Gate Stadium, where they look to build on a positive away victory against Reading. The challenge for Bristol City will be how they perform at their home ground. Last season was difficult for all clubs playing in front of empty grounds. However, it was especially difficult for Bristol City, a club that has not won at home since January 26th, 2021.

Nonetheless, for the hosts, the start of the season has been quite positive for their standards. Last season, the Robins finished in a disappointing 19th place. However, after taking away four points from their first three games, Bristol City players and supporters should be optimistic of what the new season has to offer.

Bristol City vs Swansea Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Bristol City vs Swansea BRI -0.5 (+115) | SWA +0.5 (-190) BRI +135 | SWA +235 | DRAW +215 Ov 2.5 (+125) | Un 2.5 (-150)

Odds as of Aug 19 at Draft Kings

Conversely, the start of the season for Swansea has been an absolute shambles to say the very least. The Swans are without a win in their first three games, only managing one draw against newly demoted Sheffield United. The start of the season has been tough for Swansea, playing Blackburn, Sheffield and Stoke, with a cup match against Reading in the middle. But, it is no excuse for a team that is usually fighting for a playoff spot.

There is plenty of time to turn it around for Swansea, and they do have talent in the side. Reaching the playoff final last season is living proof of that. Regardless, with a newly appointed, 35 year-old manager, time might already be ticking, making this game imperative for Swansea to win.

Martin has Concerns Over Fitness of Swansea

Russell Martin is a young, and still rather inexperienced manager. But, he has a very specific style of play and to be completely fair, it has worked out for him in the past couple of years. After spending two season with MK Dons, Martin was offered the Swansea position just 19 days ago on August 1st. Last season, MK Dons finished in 13th place in League One, after a 19th place finish the year before.

Furthermore, Martin likes to play possession-based football, on an extreme level. In fact, last year, only Manchester City and Barcelona held the ball longer than his MK Dons side. Now, we can see him also trying to implement this style at Swansea, resulting in nearly 70% possession over the first three games.

The goals are not coming yet, but that is to be expected when you bring a manager in with nearly no preseason, who is also trying to implement a massive style change. As a result, players fitness levels are being tested and questioned by the manager. In the last match alone, Martin made one change before halftime, and two more before the 60-minute mark.

After a few frustrating matches, expect Martin to start new signing Joel Piroe up front, and play a little bit more on the front foot. Piroe has scored two goals already and will hopefully give Martin some relief in the technical box.

The H2H Favors Bristol City or a Draw

Unfortunately, Swansea have not had the best of luck in recent times against Bristol City. In six games since 2018, Swansea has only won once and drew twice, while Bristol has won three. These matches also generally lean towards a narrow scoreline, hitting the under on 2.5 goals five out of the same last six matches.

Bristol City vs Swansea Statistics

Bristol City
VS
Swansea
1.66 Goals per game 0.66
1.66 Goals conceded per game 1.66
47.3% Possession % 66.0%
66.4% Passing % 86.2%

For Bristol City, they have nothing to lose. The Robins have played well to start the season and their offense is firing scoring seven goals across four matches in all competitions. It will be their first time playing with a full Ashton Gate crowd on hand in quite some time, and I personally think they will make the most of it.

 

Bristol City vs Swansea Best Bet

Overall, the best bet for this match is the draw moneyline with odds of +215. Swansea is clearly going through a rough patch, but I expect a few changes to the starting eleven will be enough for another point.

Pick: Draw moneyline (+215)

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