Carlos Vela Heavy -310 Favorite for MLS Golden Boot; Does Josef Martínez or Zlatan Ibrahimović Offer Value?
- LAFC’s Carlos Vela leads the 2019 MLS Golden Boot race with 22 goals
- The 2018 MLS Golden Boot winner, Josef Martinez, sits in second spot with 17 goals
- LA Galaxy’s Zlatan Ibrahimovic has 16 goals
LAFC’s Carlos Vela has helped lead his team to the top spot in the Western Conference (15-3-4) and also keeping top spot in goals scored.
He has been the favorite for most of the season for the MLS 2019 Golden Boot since he got off to a hot scoring start. Back in May he was even-money to win the award and now those odds have shortened all the way to -310.
Vela’s 22 goals gives him a five-goal lead over Josef Martinez’ 17 goals so far this season.
MLS Golden Boot Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Carlos Vela | -310 |
| Josef Martinez | +375 |
| Zlatan Ibrahimovic | +625 |
| C.J. Sapong | +15000 |
| Diego Rossi | +15000 |
| Gyasi Zardes | +15000 |
| Sam Johnson | +15000 |
| Adama Diomande | +20000 |
| Alberth Ellis | +20000 |
| Brian Fernandez | +20000 |
Will Vela Be Caught?
With a third of the season left to play, the window is closing on the scoring race, but if anyone can do it, it will be Martinez.
Martinez won the 2018 MLS Golden Boot with an MLS record of 31 goals, an average of .912 goals per game. To make a comparison, Lionel Messi scored 34 goals and Mohamed Salah scored 32 goals in their respective leagues back in 2017-2018.
Last season Martinez was heavy on the scoring in the first two thirds of the season. He scored only three goals between September and October. This season he has scored 17 goals in 20 appearances, an average of .85 goals per game.
How crazy is it that Josef Martinez has 17 goals in 20 appearances and we kinda all feel like it's a slow year? He spoiled us last year and Vela is doing the same damn thing to us this year
— Tom Bogert (@tombogert) July 30, 2019
It’s a lot of difference to make up, but Martinez has the potential to catch up to Vela. At +375 odds it offers the best value on the table.
In the 2018 MLS season Ibrahimovic scored 22 goals, where Vela currently sits with one third of the season left to play.
The Ibrahimovic vs. Vela rivalry is strong but with Zlatan six goals behind Vela, he’ll have to make up a difference of 40-percent of the goals he has already scored this season and then some. At +625 odds the payoff is great, but unlikely it will happen.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Carlos Vela lead the 2019 MLS All-Star starting lineup https://t.co/3dt2oTRPQw pic.twitter.com/OvK6qRZLf0
— Sports Roadhouse® (@SportsRoadhouse) August 1, 2019
Despite the rivalry, the two played alongside each other for MLS All-Star match.
The Lot
Chicago Fire’s C.J. Sapong has scored nine goals so far this season with odds of +15000. LAFC’s 20-year-old Diego Rossi has 12 goals on the season, 10 behind his teammate Vela, with +15000 odds.
Columbus Crew’s Gyasi Zardes has scored seven goals on 13 shots on goal.
In his first MLS season, Real Salt Lake star Sam Johnson has scored eight goals in 16 appearances and 10 shots on goal. The passionate player possesses high accuracy. Unlikely he’ll catch Vela, but his accuracy can’t be denied.
LAFC’s Adama Diomande has scored eight goals in 17 appearances, with odds of +20000.
Brian Fernandez is legit. What a goal scorer pic.twitter.com/C8FHXE7bBH
— Brian Sciaretta (@BrianSciaretta) June 2, 2019
Houston Dynamo’s Alberth Elis has seven goals on the season. The attacker moves at the speed of lightning and has odds of +20000.
Portland Timbers’ Brian Fernandez has eight goals in eight starts and 10 appearances this season. He rounds out the Top 10 with odds of +20000.
Best Bet: Josef Martinez
Lindsey graduated with a Masters in Broadcast and Digital Journalism in 2016, and since then has served as a commentator for men's and women's college sports, a contributor for USA TODAY Sports Media Group, and works as a local radio traffic anchor.
