- It’s Milan Derby time as Inter and AC face off in the San Siro on Sunday
- Inter need the win to hunt down Juve, and start as odd-on favorites
- AC’s recent good run makes their +280 for the win look a decent bet
It’s the Derby della Madonnina in Milan this Sunday on February 9, 2:45 pm EST with Inter taking on AC. For Inter this is a chance to reassert their title credentials, having had a recent dip and fallen four points behind Juventus. For AC it’s a chance to make ground on the top four and close in on the places that would earn them a Champions League slot for next season.
Inter Milan vs AC Milan Odds
|Inter Milan||-0.5 (-105)||-105||O 2.5 (+101)|
|AC Milan||+0.5 (-115)||+280||U 2.5 (-121)|
All odds taken Feb 6.
Inter start as odds-on favorites with good reason. Not only are they flying in the league, but there’s also the small matter of the Rossoneri having won just once in the past 11 Milan derbies since 2014/15, a run that includes no wins in the last seven. By contrast, Inter has won the last three.
But, also worth remembering, is that usually the Derby della Madonnina is settled by very narrow margins, with the scoreline rarely being representative of any gulf in class between the two teams. AC will start as underdogs but will know, in true local derby tradition, that league positions and form count for little in the white heat of the Milan derby.
AC will also be heartened by their recent good run of form – they are undefeated in their last five Serie A games, a run that includes three wins – with their lowly eighth place being mainly due to a barren run they hit between mid-September and mid-November.
AC Back in Contention
Since that poor run, AC has lost just once in 12 games in all competitions – winning six, drawing five and losing one – although also worth noting is that in this run they have only faced one of the ‘top’ teams, Napoli, with whom they drew. In fact, they have lost each of their five meetings with Serie A’s current top five in the league this season.
— AC Milan (@acmilan) February 4, 2020
Inter’s recent blip – no defeats but three consecutive draws – was ended at the weekend when they won 2-0 victory away to 15th-placed Udinese, with former Man Utd striker Romelu Lukaku scoring goals number 15 and 16 for the campaign. With manager Antonio Conte adding to his squad in January – bringing in, among others, Christen Eriksen from Tottenham – he will be hoping that in order to help in closing the gap between themselves and Juve, the Dane will be the provider for more Lukaku goals.
Inter Milan vs AC Milan Head-to-Head Stats
|2nd||Position in Serie A table||8th|
|15 / 22||Wins/games played||9 / 22|
|18||Serie A titles||18|
Eriksen to Provide Ammunition for Lukaku
In terms of team news for Sunday, Inter’s Argentine striker Lauturo Martinez will be missing due to suspension, while goalkeeper Samir Handanović will also miss out after fracturing his finger.
It’s likely that Conte will turn to Man Utd loanee Alexis Sanchez, who came off the bench last weekend and did well alongside Lukaku in a 3-5-2 formation, to again line up alongside the Belgian. Eriksen is also expected to start, alongside other January signings Victor Moses – on loan from Chelsea – and Ashley Young, another signing from Man Utd.
The Derby della Madonnina is traditionally settled by very narrow margins, with the scoreline rarely being representative of any gulf in class between the two teams.
AC will look to Zlatan Ibrahimović – now in his second spell at the club – to add some much-needed firepower to their attack. While the Swede may be 38-years-old, the fire still burns and he will be looking to make a difference to a team that means a lot to him.
Zlatan to Lead the AC Line
Zlatan has scored twice since re-signing from LA Galaxy, and in addition to the goals they hope he will score, it’s clear he’s been brought in as a leader and mentor to the team’s younger players, including midfielder Daniel Maldini, who came on for a late cameo last weekend. It’s a legendary name in Italian football, and Maldini is the third generation of his family to play for the Rossoneri, most recently his father Paolo played for the club with great distinction.
So, while the league table suggests Inter will win this one comfortably, the leveler of it being a derby cannot be underestimated, neither the fact this is effectively a ‘home’ game for both teams (they share the San Siro). These games are usually decided – if they’re decided at all – by the odd goal and so the value here is with the draw. It’ll be tight, maybe a 1-1.
Pick: Inter Milan and AC Milan to draw (+225)