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Juventus Now -275 Favorites to Win Champions League Group D; Atleti Second at +165

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Jan 4, 2023 · 6:28 AM PST

Paulo Dybala
Juve's Argentinian international Paolo Dybala was on target twice this week to keep the Italian champions top of Champions League Group D. Photo by Oleg Bkhambri (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • Juventus were 2-1 winners over Lokomotiv Moscow on Matchday 3
  • Atletico Madrid scored late to defeat Bayer Leverkusen 1-0
  • See the updated odds to win UCL Group D below

After Matchday 3, UEFA Champions League Group D is tied at the top with Juventus and Atletico Madrid both on seven points. Juve are still the heavy favorites to win the group but we’re going to look at if they are the best bet or is there value on Atleti.

UEFA Champions League Group D – Odds

Team Current Position (Points) Odds
Juventus 1st (7 points) -275
Atletico Madrid 2nd (7 points) +165
Lokomotiv Moscow 3rd (3 points) +20000
Bayer Leverkusen 4th (0 points) +20000

Odds taken October 24, 2019


Midweek wins for the top two have cemented their positions in the group as favorites to go through the knockout stages. Both look unstoppable. Juventus’ outright Champions League odds have worsened slightly though to an average of +1200 from +980.

Atleti left it late to secure their narrow 1-0 win over Leverkusen but in true Diego Simeone fashion, it was a typically solid and professional performance. In the end, it took a 78th-minute header from substitute Álvaro Morata to seal the points but it was job done as Atleti look to negotiate a safe, trouble-free route through to the second phase.

Juve’s route to the three points was even more dramatic, and in order to overcome Lokomotiv they had to come from behind to earn their priceless 2-1 win. Miranchuk had given the Russians a first-half lead, and for long spells, it looked as if they would hang on for victory but two goals in the space of three second-half minutes (on 77′ and 79′ minutes) from Paulo Dybala sealed the deal.

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Route to the Knockout Phase

It would now take something quite dramatic to deny either Juve or Atleti a passage through to the next phase, but who will top the group and, in doing so, give themselves a theoretically easier route through to the latter stages of the competition? Juve are odds-on but this is an Atleti team that has spent the last decade turning the form book upside down.

As things stand, it really couldn’t be any tighter. Both have beaten the two teams they were expected to beat and when Juve and Atleti met in Madrid in mid-September they drew 2-2, although it was a game the Italians thought they had won. Goals from Juan Cuadrado and Blaise Matuidi had given the visitors what looked a seemingly unassailable lead but late goals from Stefan Savic and Hector Herrara salvaged a point for the home side.

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Home Advantage for Juve

With both teams having two away games and one home game to go, it looks very likely to boil down to Alteti’s visit to Turin on November 26.

It could end up being the home advantage for Juve that tips the balance, especially given their outstanding home record both in the Champions League and domestically, and it’s generally been Atleti’s home form that has been behind their successes of the last decade.

So, while the value is with Simeone’s men – and never write them off – even at odds-on, I’m tempted to suggest that there’s some easy money to be made here by jumping on Juve.

My pick: Juve to win Group D

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