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Liga MX Clausura Quarterfinals Odds & Picks

John Dillon

by John Dillon in Soccer

May 12, 2021 · 7:26 AM PDT

Liga MX
Jose Martinez of Mexico's Cruz Azul, left, challenges Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty of Canada's Toronto FC during a CONCACAF Champions League quarterfinal second leg soccer match at Azteca stadium in Mexico City, Tuesday, May 4, 2021. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)
  • Four fixtures on Wednesday and Thursday as Clausura section enters last eight playoff phase
  • Cruz Azul finished top of the regular-season table and should overcome Toluca
  • See all odds, best bets & predictions  for Mexico’s Liga MX Clausura Quarterfinals Leg1 below

Mexico’s Liga MX Clausura competition enters its main play-off phase on Wednesday and Thursday with the top four teams from the regular season now joining the fray.

The teams which finished from fifth to 12th have played off in the end-of-season Linguilla “mini-league”.

They now take on the teams which finished from first place to fourth in the two-legged quarterfinals.

Liga MX Clausura Playoff Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Toluca vs Cruz Azul +250 +235 +110
Atlas vs Puebla -125 +235 +380
Pachuca vs Club America +170 +250 +145
Santos Laguna vs Monterrey +140 +240 +185

Odds as of May 12 at DraftKings

Toluca vs Cruz Azul Prediction

Cruz Azul finished on top of the regular season standings and is favored to beat Toluca, which finished 11th.

Despite the big difference in the two teams’ regular-season record, DraftKings offers a surprisingly attractive +110 for a first-leg win by Cruz Azul.

The oddsmakers price Toluca at +250 with the draw at +235.

Toluca advanced from the mini-league playoffs into the last eight by defeating fifth-placed Leon away from home on penalties following a 2-2 draw.

Cruz won 13 of its 17 Clausura fixtures and boasted the best defensive statistics in the competition after conceding only 11 goals.

They should be too strong for Toluca after also matching second-placed Club America as leading goalscorers with 26 strikes.

Furthermore, both those defeats came in the opening two matches of the campaign with a 15-match unbeaten run that following that poor start.

Cruz Azul has also emphasized its good form by advancing to the semifinals of the 2021 CONCACAF Champions League after defeating Toronto FC with a 3-1 Leg 1 victory followed by a further 1-0 success in Leg 2.

There was a 3-2 win for Cruz Azul when these teams last met in February.

Toluca lost more games than it won to finish 11th in the regular season – with seven defeats, six wins and four draws.

Furthermore, it lost five of its last eight regular-season fixtures.

That form suggests they will struggle against such a comprehensively well-organized side as Cruz Azul with an away victory on the cards.

Pick: Cruz Azul+110

Atlas vs Puebla Prediction

Puebla finished third in the regular season and has beaten seventh-placed Atlas in two of the teams’ last three meetings.

However, Puebla is priced as a tempting wide outsider at +380 for a first-leg away win – an assessment probably prompted by the fact that this side is historically one of Liga MX’s less imposing outfits.

Atlas is rated at an equally surprising but unattractive -125 with the draw at +235, which is also interesting.

Puebla was beaten only three times in the regular season with seven wins and seven draws.

Meanwhile, Atlas reached the last eight with a 1-0 Linguilla victory against 11th-placed Tigres UANL.

Atlas won only twice in the final six regular-season games

It won seven times in the regular season while losing six and drawing on four occasions.

However, it won only twice in the final six regular-season games – not the kind of form which should make them such wide favorites.

The run-in statistics for Pueba were much more impressive with a six-match unbeaten run featuring three wins and three draws.

In conclusion, these odds for Puebla make them the best offering to continue their good form.

Pick: Puebla +380

Santos Laguna vs Monterrey Prediction

Santos Laguna and Monterrey seem to be set for a tight collision according to the oddsmakers – with a draw their most likely first leg outcome

DraftKings offers an attractive +240 for an all-square finish.

Meanwhile, Santos is a slight favorite at home at +140 with Monterrey at +185.

Monterrey finished fourth in the regular season with eight wins, four draws and five defeats.

Santos, however, finished fifth and entered the Linguilla playoff stage – where they secured their last-eight berth with a powerful 5-0 hammering of Queretaro.

That result appears to have influenced the odds. But Santos won only one of their final six regular-season games.

There was a 1-0 win at home for Santos against these opponents in February.

The form of Monterrey in the regular season also nose-dived with three defeats in the last four games.

It has, however, reached the semifinals of the CONCACAFChampions League after defeating Columbus Crew – with a 2-2 draw in the USA followed by a 3-0 win at home.

To sum up, a draw is the most likely first leg outcome in this last eight meeting.

Draw: +240

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