- Energetic newcomers Famalicao (+194) offer decent value away to relegation candidates Aves on Saturday.
- Sporting Braga (+370) set to host Benfica in the midst of European qualification slog
- Porto (-526) heavily favored against decent Guimaraes team also in the midst of heavy travel schedule for Europe
It’s hard to believe the season is nearly a month old, yet here we are: Matchday 4 in Liga NOS brings with it some intriguing Big Three matchups, as well as a number of value plays in the bottom half of the league table.
With Braga and Guimaraes both battling for their European lives on Thursday evening, it’s unlikely either will be able to engineer a win against bigger opposition.
Thus, let’s turn our attention to some mid-table matchups.
Aves vs Famalicao Odds
|Aves||pk, -0.5 (+101)||+140||O 2.5 (+106)|
|Famalicao||pk, +0.5 (-121)||+194||U 2.5 (-126)|
*Odds taken 08/29/19
At the outset of the campaign, both Aves and Famalicao were expected to be bottom-half teams: Aves finished 14th in the Liga NOS last season, while Famalicao were promoted from the second division for the first time since 1994.
It’s been a different tale through three matchdays, however, as Aves have struggled to a 1-0-2 start and Famalicao have taken Portugal by storm with a 2-1-0 record and share of first place.
While it is early days, it appears Famalicao’s ambitious summer — the club signed a number of Liga NOS vets, such as keeper Rafael Defendi, defender Lionn and striker Fabio Martins — has paid off.
Aves have been a question mark, with a pair of defeats away from home, though did score a 3-1 win over Maritimo in their only home game to-date.
PICK: Famalicao, pk/+0.5 (-121) — A win or draw seems like a pretty safe bet for the Cinderella story of the early campaign, as the Primeira Liga newcomers have yet to lose this season and earned a 0-0 draw at Aves in a July friendly.
Gil Vicente v Setubal Odds
|Gil Vicente||pk, -0.5 (-112)||+128||O 2.5 (+102)|
|Setubal||pk, +0.5 (-108)||+225||U 2.5 (-122)|
Another mid-table value play pits Gil Vicente, who has shown some moxie in their return to the top flight, hosting a Setubal team that’s been underwhelming to begin the season.
Under veteran coach Vitor Oliveira, Gil Vicente has competed well with some of Portugal’s top clubs this season — to the tune of a 2-1 win over Porto and a respectable 1-1 draw against Guimaraes.
Setubal, meanwhile, has not scored a goal through three league games.
The newcomers should be good for the result — so long as the lights don’t go out.
At the Gil Vicente-Braga game in Portugal a player took a shot and the power immediately went out. No word on if Bray Wyatt appeared when the power came back on. pic.twitter.com/jhhbtvYuA0
— Eagle-Eyed Social Media User Dan Why-Ner (@DanWeiner) August 25, 2019
PICK: Gil Vicente (+128) or Under 2.5 (-122) — Setubal’s goalscoring woes likely won’t end with a trip to face the well-organized Gil Vicente, who have been much better through three games.
For this week’s parlay play, consider Famalicao plus either of the Gil Vicente-Setubal plays, with the addition of one of the big three.
Sporting (-263) is at home against a Rio Ave side that, while coming into its own, is still vastly inferior to its hosts. Porto (-526) should be virtually automatic against a Guimaraes team that’s traipsed across Europe over the past month, while Benfica (-154) faces a tricky test away from home against a Braga team that played in Russia on Thursday.
Liga NOS Parlay: Famalicao or draw, Under 2.5 (GV-SET), Porto (+295)
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