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Lille vs Ajax UCL Matchday 5 Odds, Picks, and Betting Preview

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer

Nov 21, 2019 · 11:37 AM PST

Lille's Yusuf Yazici will play in Lille vs PSG
Lille's Yusuf Yazici, third left, celebrates after scoring his side's second goal during the French League One soccer match between Lille and Monaco at the Stade Pierre Mauroy stadium in Villeneuve d'Ascq, northern France, Sunday, Dec. 6, 2020. (AP Photo/Michel Spingler)
  • On Wednesday at 3:00 pm EST, French side Lille host Ajax in Group H of the Champions League
  • Currently, Ajax is first in Group H, despite being level on seven points with Chelsea and Valencia
  • Given the point differential, Ajax is the clear favorite with a moneyline of -112

Group H in the Champions League is very much a story of three teams; Ajax, Chelsea and Valencia. Unfortunately, Lille have already been eliminated from the knockout stages as they have only scavenged one point. Nonetheless, the French team can still fight for third place and a spot in the Europa League for this season.

Sadly for Lille, Ajax are on great form, having won four out of their last six, only losing one game to fellow Champions League competitors Chelsea at home. In fact, the Dutch side has scored four goals in each of their last four matches, which should concern Christophe Galtier’s side who have let in six goals over three. In the reverse fixture at Johan Cruyff Arena, Ajax won handily by three goals to nil. Quincy Promes, Edson Alvarez and Nicolas Tagliafico did the scoring as Lille failed to muster a goal.

Lille vs Ajax Odds

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Lille +½ (-104) +268 Over 3 (-117)
Ajax -½ (-112) -112 Under 3 (+101)
Draw N/A +253 N/A

Odds taken on Nov. 21

Lille Struggling Despite Solid Home Form

Recently, Lille have been struggling massively, sitting outside the top four in Ligue 1, having only won five games out of 13. Meanwhile, last year’s semifinalists are six points clear at the top of the Eredivisie. It is safe to say the game will not go well for Lille, but the match is being played at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy which could give them a slight advantage.

At home, they have yet to lose in Ligue 1 this year, winning five and drawing two of those games in France. Contrary, Ajax has the same record away from home.

If Lille wants anything out of European play this season, they will have to go for it here as they need to make up points to get into the Europa League. Expect them to turn up at home, and if they do manage to grab a goal, do not be surprised if Victor Osimhen is the one behind it. Osimhen has bagged seven goals and two assists this season, and gets off 3.1 shots per game, which is quite impressive.

Lille vs Ajax Statistics

Lille
VS
Ajax
1 Point (4th in Group H) Standing in UCL 7 Points (1st in Group H)
1.4 Goals per game 3.3
12.1 Shots per game 22.7
53.6% Average Possession % 61%

Best Bet

Everybody knows Lille needs this win to stay alive in Europe, and being at home will provide them the environment to do so. However, Ajax have proved time in and time out that they are not just a one-hit-wonder. They are a young team, but they seem to be here to stay and they are consistently showing they can be composed enough to do so.

Despite a poor performance in London against Chelsea, they have been rock solid, and have been pouring in goals from all angles. This Lille defense is just not good enough to hold down their attack, and at -112, betting on an Ajax win seems almost too easy to pass on. On the other side of the coin, Ajax could easily fall out of the top two in the group if they do not get a good result and Chelsea and Valencia split points. Therefore, the motivation is the same. Ajax has a great away record and I expect them to push through and get the easy victory.

Pick: Ajax (-112)

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