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MLS Week 11 Odds & Picks – Philadelphia vs New York, Toronto vs Orlando & More

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer

May 13, 2022 · 4:00 PM PDT

MLS Week 11
May 10, 2022; Washington, DC, USA; New York Red Bulls midfielder Luquinhas (82) celebrates with teammates after scoring a goal against the D.C. United in the first half in a US Open Cup match at Audi Field. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
  • MLS Week 11 includes 12 games on Saturday and two on Sunday this weekend
  • Last week’s MLS betting predictions record: 2-2, -0.46 units; Season Record 23-11, +9.06 units
  • Read on for the odds and our MLS Week 11 best bets below

MLS Week 11 gets underway with Toronto vs Orlando at 3:00 pm EST Saturday afternoon. It’s one of 12 games on Saturday in a heavy slate of action. Sunday features just two matches, including Atlanta vs New England and Seattle vs Minnesota.

Read on for the odds for every MLS Week 11 game, as well as our best MLS betting predictions.

MLS Week 11 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC +160 +240 +160
Colorado Rapids vs LAFC +150 +245 +165
Charlotte FC vs CF Montreal +123 +245 +210
New York City vs Columbus Crew -162 +290 +430
Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Jose Earthquakes +108 +260 +230
Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls +132 +220 +215
Inter Miami CF vs DC United +155 +230 +170
Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati -113 +270 +275
Houston Dynamo vs Nashville SC +175 +205 +170
Real Salt Lake vs Austin FC +125 +240 +205
Portland Timbers vs Sporting Kansas City -107 +250 +280
LA Galaxy vs FC Dallas -137 +270 +360
Atlanta United vs New England Revolution -103 +260 +250
Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United -143 +280 +375

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There are a few big underdogs on the card this week which could offer some betting value if even one or two come in. Chicago is nose-diving and has just seven goals on the season. They’re last in the East. They host Cincinnati who has won three straight and are priced at +275.

Montreal looks like a real MLS Cup contender and is priced at +210 away to newcomers Charlotte. And the Supporters’ Shield champs New England travel to Atlanta on Sunday as +250 dogs. They’re struggling, but so too are Atlanta who is dealing with a ton of injuries, including the recently injured Miles Robinson.


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Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC Best Bet

Toronto FC is one of my favorite teams to bet on. Or maybe more so their games are my favorite to bet on. It’s not because I’m from the Toronto, Ontario area. It’s because their games are predictable. They can’t defend to save their lives. Half their lineup is basically an academy squad made up of TFC II players.

However, they still have lots of good pieces. They have an experienced coach in Bob Bradley. Captain Michael Bradley is an MLS Cup winner. Alejandro Pozuelo is a former league MVP. Jesus Jimenez leads the league in goals scored. Jonathan Osorio and Carlos Salcedo are Canadian and Mexican internationals.

This is still a team with lofty expectations as they prepare to welcome Lorenzo Insigne to the fold this summer.

All this is to say they concede goals, and concede them often. 22 goals to be exact which is only better than San Jose’s 23 goals allowed. But they can score, 16 goals in 11 games. They are 8-3 to the Over 2.5 goal total this year. TFC also ranks fifth in attacking third touches in MLS.

Toronto has now lost four straight and they’ve been shut out in the last two. But, they played with ten men from the sixth minute on versus Cincinnati. And they were robbed of a goal against Vancouver on a horrible call that should’ve been reviewed and overturned. They also missed a PK. Both of those matches also came on the road.

Prior to that, all nine games had seen both teams score. Eight of those nine saw three or more goals as well. Also, every single TFC home game has seen Toronto score and at least three goals combined.

This bet is mostly a bet on Toronto’s style of play. But we have to at least touch on Orlando. Their games are a little tighter. They’re 6-5 to Under 2.5 totals. But with 13 goals scored and 15 allowed in 11 games, they average over a goal-per-game for both. They lost 4-1 in Montreal last week and have seen at least three goals combined in each of their past three.

Last season the scores between these sides were 1-0 and 3-2 for Orlando, plus a 1-1 draw.

I think at home in BMO Field, TFC gets back on the scoresheet, but in no way have they shown anything to think they’ll be able to keep a clean sheet.

Pick: Both to Score & Over 2.5 (+105); 1 unit

Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction

It’s 14th in the West, Vancouver, hosting 11th in the conference, San Jose, Saturday at 7:00 pm EST in MLS Week 11.

On paper, it doesn’t look like the most exciting of matches, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t betting angles.

The Earthquakes have allowed the most goals in all of MLS with 23. They’ve allowed the second-most xGA in the league at 20.7. Vancouver has allowed 17. Now while San Jose has still been productive offensively with 16 goals scored, Vancouver has struggled immensely on offense with only seven goals. While they did score and win 1-0 at home to Toronto last week, that winning goal by Tosaint Ricketts came in the 90′ minute.

While Vancouver is tied for the worst offense in the league with Chicago, they have played one or even two fewer games than some teams. They have scored in 3/4 at home and in six of their past seven overall games. They won 2-0 over Valour on Wednesday in the Canadian Championship.

San Jose’s games average the highest goals per game in the league tied with Montreal at 3.9. Their record isn’t great but they have been improved since head coach Matias Almeyda was let go on April 18. Since, they won 5-0 in the US Open Cup. Then won 4-3 over Seattle, lost 3-0 to NYCFC (though were right in it till the end), won 1-0 over Colorado, and won in PKa against Seattle in the US Open Cup on Wednesday.

Historically, when these teams meet there are goals. There’s been just one 0-0 draw in their past 14 meetings. That did come last season in their first meeting, but afterward, it was 3-0 Vancouver and 1-1. Of those past 14 meetings, three or more goals have been scored on 11 occasions.

San Jose should dominate the ball in this game as they lead MLS in average possession at 60.3-percent, compared the Vancouver who ranks 27th. The Earthquakes should be able to create enough opportunities to score. But I think Vancouver will do just enough to at least grab one of their own.

Pick: Both Teams to Score (-137) at Caesars Sportsbook; 1 unit

Charlotte FC vs CF Montreal MLS Week 11 Picks

No one saw this coming after a tenth-place finish in the East last season. But CF Montreal are off to a blazing start heading into MLS Week 11 with a 5-2-3 record, sitting third in the East, and just two points back of leaders Philadelphia. No one in MLS has collected more points (13) than Montreal over the past five weeks.

In their first season, Charlotte finds themselves just one point out of the playoff picture right now. They’re 4-1-6 on the season. They beat Inter Miami 1-0 at home last week and won 5-1 away to the Richmond Kickers in the USOC on Wednesday.

Seven of their ten goals have come at home which is where they’ll be for this one at 7:00 pm EST Saturday in MLS Week 11. Their home matches have been, 1-0 (L), 3-1 (W), 2-0 (W), 1-0 (W), and 1-0 (W). That’s impressive, though against New England, Cincinnati, Atlanta and Miami, it would be fair to say none of those teams are among the league’s elite, at least right now.

They’ll face a different beast this weekend in a Montreal team undefeated in seven (a team record), who just trounced Orlando 4-1 last week. Montreal can score. They lead the East with 20 goals. But they’ve also allowed the second-most in the conference at 19. In fact, they’ve conceded in every single game this season. That, despite, owning the third-best xGA in the entire league at 10.1.

I don’t see Montreal losing this one. One of the ways to bet on soccer is a double chance bet. A bet on the double chance at -160 odds (win or draw) or draw no bet at +120 (win or refund for a draw) could be safe. For a little better price though you could simply back goals coming from both sides.

Pick: Both Teams to Score (-130) at Caesars Sportsbook; 1 unit

Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls MLS Week 11 Pick

We’re running long here so we’ll try to make this MLS pick quick. The Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls is one of the top matches of the weekend. Philly sits first in the East with 19 points, closely followed by New York at 18. The Union are second in the MLS Cup odds at +1000.

Their records are near identical and so too are their stats. The Union have scored 15, allowed eight. The Red Bulls have scored 16, and also allowed eight.

They’re also two of the three highest pressing teams in the league, New York is first and Philly third. They’re first and second respectively in middle third pressures as well. Neither team is used to possessing much of the ball, New York ranking 23rd and Philly last at 28th. What that means is it could get interesting out there. Little time to set up plays in the middle of the field, mistakes, transitions, and hopefully a couple of goals.

New York has tied an MLS road record. They’ve won all five of their opening road games. Those by scores of 3-1, 4-1, 1-0, 3-0 and 2-1. A win on Saturday would break the record with a sixth straight road win in MLS Week 11.

Philly has still lost just once this season. But after a string of five wins, they are now 0-3-1 in their past four, riding a streak of three draws. Each of those past four has seen both teams scoring.

While these teams typically play to lower scores in their head-to-head in the past, even a 1-1 score (+510) a result which has hit in two of their past three, would cash both teams to score bet. You could also look to the Under at -155.

Pick: Both Teams to Score (-115); 1 unit

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