MLS Week 28 Odds & Picks: New England, Montreal & Orlando Fighting for Playoff Spots

• MLS Week 28 has 12 more matches taking place this weekend
• Orlando City and New England Revolution meet in a critical match with Eastern Conference Playoff implications
• Minnesota and Real Salt Lake jockey for home playoff spots in the West

With the international break now over, Major League Soccer is back with a full weekend of games across Saturday and Sunday. MLS Week 28 has already been a busy one with four matches having taken place on Wednesday.

Let’s take a look at a few best bets from the weekend slate and provide some expert betting advice.

Orlando City vs New England Revolution Odds

*All odds taken 9/13/14

A match with major playoff implications takes place Saturday night at 7:30 pm EST in Orlando.

The Lions are four points outside of an Eastern Playoff position, the seventh position, held by their opponents this weekend, the New England Revolution. A win for Orlando could see them finish the weekend just one point behind the Revs for that spot, though only if other results fall in their favor. That result would be for FC Cincinnati to upset eighth-place Montreal—something not seen likely by the bookmakers (see further down in this post).

The key Eastern playoff race sees New England in seventh (39 points), Montreal in eighth (37) and Orlando ninth (35).

No matter how you cut it, with just three matches left after Saturday, a loss vs New England could basically end their season.

Orlando came moments away from taking the full three points last weekend at home to an LAFC team missing several regulars. Up 2-1 at the 20-minute mark, the Lions held onto that lead until the 78th minute when Diego Rossi drew Los Angeles even in what would end in a 2-2 draw.

This will be the third competitive match between the sides this season and fourth overall. Orlando won a preseason match 6-2 in February, before knocking the Revs out of the US Open Cup (USOC) 2-1 in June. New England took the win at home just weeks later in August by a 4-1 scoreline.

If you’re doing the math, there’s a trend emerging. Goals. Lots of them. And it doesn’t end there. In the ten all-time MLS matches between the two, a total of 43 goals have been scored. Good for an average of 4.3. Only once have less than three goals been scored and both teams have scored in seven of the ten. Home teams have also held a distinct advantage when these teams meet with an undefeated 6W-4D-0L record.

If you want to add in the home wins in the preseason friendly and USOC match this year, that trend only increases.

1️⃣9️⃣ Delamea red rescinded

9️⃣ #NERevs have picked up at least one road point in 9 of 14 road games so far this year

5️⃣ games left in the regular season#NERevs // #ORLvNE pic.twitter.com/VYuymgKfGy

— New England Revolution (@NERevolution) September 14, 2019

The Revs will be hopeful of breaking their winless run in Orlando as their playoff hopes are also hanging by a thread. The Revs jumped out to an early lead last weekend against NYCFC with a goal two minutes in. Unfortunately, they would take a red card just minutes later and be forced to play a man down the rest of the way.

They almost held on for the win, but the Cityzens drew level in the 70th minute and added the winner in the 96′ with a penalty from Jesus Medina. Medina had only subbed on at the hour mark in the match and was responsible for both goals.

New England has just one win in their past six matches, however, both teams have scored in five of the six. I’m banking on another high-scoring, exciting affair Saturday night.

Pick: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (-143)

Minnesota United vs Real Salt Lake Odds

With five matches taking place on Sunday, let’s dig into one them with some betting interest. There was a point this season when Minnesota was a scoring machine. Throughout June and into the early stages of July, they were scoring anywhere from two to seven goals per game.

Their 46 goals on the year on tied for fourth-best in the West. However, their 39 goals allowed, is what’s more impressive. That also ranks fourth in their conference, something that would have been inconceivable in past years.

gotta put Wednesday night behind us…

… #RSL awaits #MINvRSL | @advocare pic.twitter.com/HsCvSz52FB

— Minnesota United FC (@MNUFC) September 13, 2019

One of the teams ranked ahead of them in that category is Real Salt Lake, who’ve allowed only 35 goals, which is second-best in the West, and third-best overall in all of MLS. Only LAFC (32) and Atlanta United (33) have conceded fewer times.

Minnesota will host RSL at 5:30 pm EST on Sunday in a match that could heavily impact the home playoff places in the West. Each team has been strong since the Gold Cup break back in June, and rank fourth (RSL) and fifth (Minnesota) in PPG since that time.

Only LAFC (32) and Atlanta United (33) have conceded fewer times than RSL.

Those points have been coming more so on the back of each team’s defense, at least recently. The Loons fell 2-0 on the road to struggling Houston on Wednesday. It was their fifth-straight game in MLS and ninth of ten, which has seen them finish a game with a scoreline of two or fewer goals.

RSL meanwhile, are off a 1-0 midweek win over San Jose which saw Damir Kreilach score the winner in the 75th minute. By comparison, it was their fourth-straight match with two or fewer total goals and tenth in 14 coming in under 2.5.

Here is Damir Kreilach's game-winning goal off a centering pass from Brooks Lennon in @realsaltlake's 1-0 victory over San Jose. pic.twitter.com/NYluFpQOhq

— Dana Greene (@dana_greene) September 12, 2019

The last two matches between these teams have both ended in 1-1 draws.

Given each team’s stingy defense, some possibly tired legs from midweek action and the importance of not losing ground in the top four in the West, I’ll predict a low-scoring affair, where the road dog could offer some value on the spread as well.

Pick: Under 3 goals (-115)

MLS Week 28 Parlay Pick

Let’s look at a small two-team Saturday parlay between the Montreal Impact vs FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union vs Los Angeles FC.

Montreal Impact vs FC Cincinnati Odds

It’s now or never for the Montreal Impact if they hope to qualify for the 2019 MLS Cup Playoffs. Currently sitting in eighth place in the East, Montreal are two points behind New England who own the seventh and final playoff spot. To make matters worse the Revs have a game in hand on the Impact.

Hosting FC Cincinnati on Saturday night at 7:30 pm EST will likely be Montreal’s best opportunity to attempt to make up some ground by season’s end.

The Impact have just four games remaining. After this week, those matches include home dates to New York Red Bulls and Atlanta, plus a season finale away to the LA Galaxy. So while three of their remaining matches will come at home, the final three will come against winning sides.

Lassi Lappalainen's second goal from last night completed his second brace in just four games after joining the MLS. #huuhkajat https://t.co/4amG7oS8r0

— barbarian?? (@barbaricfooty) August 18, 2019

Also sandwiched into their September schedule are two Canadian Championship Finals matches against Toronto FC. Meaning taking all three points against the already eliminated Cincinnati is a must on Saturday.

Montreal’s form has been subpar of late, having won just once in their past six matches. Their last action saw them fall in defeat 3-0 at home to the struggling DC United. They’ll be hopeful that recent TAM signing Lassi Lappalainen is ready to go from international play with Finland, as the 21-year-old has injected some offense into the Montreal attack with six goals in his young seven-game MLS career.

They’re also hopeful for the potential return of Designated Player Nacho Piatti who could make a return from injury this weekend.

And while FCC will take solace in knowing they defeated this Impact side 2-1 at home back in May, that was one of their few bright spots of the season. Since that win, they’ve played 17 times in MLS play, and only once have they kept fewer than two goals out of their net.

In their past 17 matches, FC Cincinnati have allowed at least two goals each game, while allowing three or more in each of their past four.

Final: #FCCincy (5-21-3) drops a 5-1 decision to #TFCLive. Emmanuel Ledesma bagged a goal at the end.

On 72 goals conceded, it appears very likely FC Cincinnati will let Orlando City SC off the hook for the 74 goals it allowed in 2018 (still the MLS single-season record)

— Pat Brennan (@PBrennanENQ) September 8, 2019

Last weekend they lost 5-1 to Toronto and for the season as a whole, have allowed a near record-breaking 72 goals—16 more than the next worst side, who coincidentally happen to be Montreal.

FCC are basically the free square on the Bingo card, and betting Montreal to score at least two goals seems like a no-brainer.

Philadelphia Union vs LAFC Odds

For the second-straight game, the Philadelphia Union will be hosting one of the league’s best. On August 31 they hosted Atlanta United who were, at the time, tied with the Union for first in the East. Philly past the test and came away 3-1 victors.

This Saturday at 7:30 pm EST, they’ll host Western Conference-leading LAFC at Talen Energy Stadium.

Back in Week 26, I predicted both Philadelphia and Atlanta to both find the back of the net, and for much of the same reasons I had then, I’ll predict a similar outcome for MLS Week 28 between Philadelphia and LAFC.

The Union’s 54 goals are only behind the 76 of LAFC. And to summarize my Week 26 preview, Philly have scored in all but one home match this season and are scoring over two goals per game on their home pitch. Their 42 goals conceded though isn’t great, and they’ve now failed to keep a clean sheet in 15 of 16 matches and in none of their past six.

Philly have scored in all but one home match this season and are scoring over two goals per game on their home pitch.

That sort of streak seems unlikely to change this week against LAFC who have only failed to score in a league match four times this season. One of those occasions did come recently in a 2-0 home loss to Minnesota on September 1.

However, last weekend, depsite being shorthanded and traveling to an Orlando side which badly needed a win, Los Angeles still managed to leave Exploria Stadium with a 2-2 draw. It’s now been three matches without victory for LAFC and while a win may not mean as much to them this weekend as it could for Philly, goals from both teams should be expected.

Get your ? ready: https://t.co/tJpGbtKpWr pic.twitter.com/FChDF5vnsU

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) September 13, 2019

As a single bet I wouldn’t put you off from a “Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals”  bet at odds of (-182), yet even that offers little value. So a simple BTTS bet tied to the Montreal outcome will do.

MLS Week 26 Parlay Pick: Montreal to score over 1.5 goals and Philadelphia vs LAFC btts (+100)