MLS Week 26 Odds & Picks: Philadelphia Union & Atlanta United Battle for Top Spot in East

• Eastern Conference co-leaders face off in Philadelphia
• Can Josef Martínez extend scoring streak?
• Playoff hopes fading for SKC

The playoff races are tightening across the league as we continue into MLS Week 26 with another 12 matches this weekend.

Let’s take a look at a few best bets from the weekend slate and provide some expert betting advice. This weekend I see a couple of two-team parlays I like.

Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United Odds

*All odds taken August 30, 2019

With the regular season into the final quarter of the season, this result between the current co-leaders of the Eastern Conference could have a big say in who eventually claims top spot and a first-round bye in the playoffs.

The Philadelphia Union will host Atlanta United at 7:30 pm EST Saturday in a match that sees both teams tied on 48 points. With Atlanta holding the tie-breaker and the Union having also played one additional game already, the match should hold extra importance for the Union.

LIVE: Jim Curtin midweek press conference ahead of Atlanta United 8/31 https://t.co/pqa86WK6V7

— PhilaUnion (@PhilaUnion) August 28, 2019

The teams drew 1-1 back on March 17 this year. Atlanta won 3-1 and 3-2 last season and drew 2-2, along with a 3-0 win in 2017. So Philadelphia have yet to defeat the third-year MLS side, but goals have often been in the cards.

Philadelphia may not get as much attention as some other teams in MLS, but they are actually the league’s second-leading scorers with 51 goals. That ranks only behind LAFC’s 51. At home, the Union has scored 31 times in 14 games, good for over two goals per game. In fact, at home, Philadelphia has only failed to score once all season. They’ve scored at least twice in each of their past five home dates. However, they’ve also conceded at home in six of seven.

At home, Philadelphia has only failed to score once all season. They’ve scored at least twice in each of their past five home dates. However, they’ve also conceded at home in six of seven.

With 41 total goals allowed, their defense has been far from rock-solid and that will be a problem against Atlanta United.

The Five Stripes are fresh off another trophy celebration, winning the US Open Cup over Minnesota United on Tuesday. It was their third trophy win in the past nine months, having already won Campeones Cup earlier this month, in addition to MLS Cup last December.

Last night Atlanta United won another trophy, this time it was the US Open Cup final against Minnesota United.

This is their 3rd trophy in just 9 months. ?? pic.twitter.com/bkzcqr1rxm

— Everything Georgia (@GAFollowers) August 28, 2019

The win was Atlanta’s seventh-straight in all competitions and also their ninth time in ten matches where they not only have scored but have scored at least twice. You actually have to go all the way back to May 19, to find a match where Atlanta has failed to score.

At now 12 straight games in MLS with a goal, Josef Martínez alone has to be favored to score, much less the whole Atlanta team. But on a short week, after some likely mid-week celebrations and on the road, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them concede at least once as well.

Pick: Both teams to score

New England Revolution vs Toronto FC Odds

If goals are what you’re looking for, this may be the matchup of the weekend for you. The Revs host TFC at 7:30 pm EST in what will be a match crucial in each team’s positioning for the playoffs.

New England finds themselves sixth in the East with 38 points, just one point ahead of seventh-place Montreal and also eighth-place Toronto. New England could hypothetically jump into a tie for fourth, while Toronto could jump to fifth, with a win and various other favorable results going their way throughout the weekend.

When these teams met earlier this season at BMO Field, it was Toronto who came away with the 3-2 win

Those types of scorelines have been common in this matchup, as last season both won at home—New England 3-2 and Toronto 4-1. The last four have seen both find the back of the net, as have nine of 11. Each of those 11 matches has seen at least a total of two goals scored overall. Actually, only once in their previous 15 meetings have their been less than two goals scored overall.

The Revs are coming off a late 2-1 win last weekend over Chicago—the third straight game where they saw both teams score. Recent DP signing Gustavo Bou scored the winner in the 86th minute.

Only once in their previous 15 meetings have their been less than two goals scored overall.

TFC were 2-1 winners themselves, also by virtue of a late 81st-minute winner by Justin Morrow. The play was started by a ball into the box from Alexander Pozuelo, who was benched to start the match. He’ll surely be motivated to get the Toronto offense going on Saturday, presumably back in the starting XI.

"At times he has tried to do too much with the ball … And then the timing of everything starts to get a little but convoluted for everybody else," @TorontoFC coach Vanney said of his desire for Pozuelo to work his magic within the team structure.https://t.co/4CDiubtnIM

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) August 27, 2019

TFC has scored in seven of the past eight MLS matches and simply can’t afford to not bring their best effort in order to stay in the playoff hunt.

Pick: Both teams to score

MLS Week 26 Parlay Pick #1: Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United  BTTS & New England Revolution vs Toronto FC BTTS (+103)

 FC Dallas vs FC Cincinnati Odds

FC Dallas are clinging to the final Western Conference playoff position, in seventh place with 40 points. At only three points above the eighth-place Portland Timbers, their 5-1 home win over the Houston Dynamo could not have come at a better time last weekend.

FCD hosts FC Cincinnati at 8:00 pm EST on Saturday and will be looking to extend their winning streak to two games and undefeated streak to three. Dallas has now scored eight goals in the past two matches and may have found an answer at striker, as Zdenek Ondrasek scored a brace in the Houston victory. He now has three goals in only two starts.

“I didn’t fly 10,000 kilometers, 7,000 miles, leave and change all my life, change my fiancé’s, my family’s life, just to come here for four months and quit and go home.” https://t.co/Lja5ErUqil

— Arman Kafai (@ArmanKafai) August 23, 2019

While Dallas’ overall play has been rather mediocre of late—their form over the past ten matches is seventh-best in the West at 4W-2D-4L, the consistent has been their play at home.

Their record at Toyota Stadium has seen them lose just once, with a record of 8-5-1. They’ve also outscored opponents 28-14. In six of their past seven home matches, Dallas has scored at least twice. Their past two home matches have been 5-1 and 5-3 wins.

That looks to just be too much for bottom of the table FC Cincinnati to handle. On Sunday, they hosted in-state rivals Columbus and found themselves down 3-0 at half, before they managed to score one late in the 89th minute.

FCC is now on a run that’s seen them go 0-1-6 where they’ve scored more than once, well, just once. That won’t be enough on the road to the in-form FC Dallas side.

Pick: FC Dallas win

Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo Odds

For much of the season I’ve picked against Sporting Kansas City, and given they’ve languished below the Western Conference playoff line for much of the season, there’s been good reason.

But when they host the Houston Dynamo at 8:30 pm EST on Saturday night, I see an opportunity to back this SKC side.

The playoffs are starting to look less and less likely for both teams, with Sporting sitting in ninth with 34 points and Houston 10th with 31. They are six and nine points respectively away from seventh-place Dallas.

Sporting comes into this match on a two-game winning streak, having defeated Minnesota 1-0 last weekend. However, the game was minutes away from ending in a draw, as Eric Hurtado’s winner came in the 88th minute.

So many emotions ????

Reply using emojis to best describe your reaction to Hurtado's 88' match winner ? pic.twitter.com/aHDhcqf40o

— Sporting KC (@SportingKC) August 23, 2019

The narrow win came despite Minnesota resting several starters for their US Open Cup finals match and SKC controlling much of the play. They held over 61-percent of possession and a 22-12 edge in attempts on goal. All this and only a last-minute win isn’t incredibly inspiring, but the thing is, nothing about the Houston Dynamo is inspiring right now.

Also fighting for their playoff lives, the Dynamo traveled to in-state rival FC Dallas on the weekend and were run off the pitch in the Texas Derby. A 5-1 Dallas win saw them leading 4-0 until Houston could finally find the scoresheet in the 80th minute.

Matt Besler and Peter Vermes on facing former #SportingKC Midfielder and current Houston Dynamo Manager Davy Arnaud Saturday. Davy made 240 appearances for SKC. pic.twitter.com/6Jv5H4QWfK

— Harold R. Kuntz (@HaroldRKuntz3) August 29, 2019

It was the second game for interim head coach Davy Arnaud, who also oversaw a 2-2 draw against Colorado the week before. Overall, the Dynamo have now lost five of six matches in MLS. They’ve also allowed at least two goals in four straight, and also in seven of eight on the road.

With just seven games remaining for both teams, Houston looks to be too far back, while Sporting still have a sliver of hope to hang on to. Having last played on August 22 at home, they’ve had over a week at home and additional rest to prepare for this one.

These teams drew 1-1 in Houston back in June, but I think SKC can find the scoresheet at least twice on Saturday.

Pick: SKC over 1.5 goals

MLS Week 26 Parlay Pick #2:  FC Dallas to win & Sporting Kansas City to score over 1.5 goals: (+106)