Belgium vs France Odds, Picks & Predictions: UEFA Nations League Best Bets
By Sascha Paruk in Soccer News
Published:
- Visiting France enters Brussels as the moneyline favorite on Monday
- Backing a French victory alongside a low goal total offers strong betting value
- See my top Belgium vs France picks and predictions for Sep 28
The UEFA Nations League regular season continues as host Belgium faces visiting France on September 28, 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 2:45 PM ET at Stade Roi Baudouin in Brussels. Both sides opened their campaigns with wins – Belgium cruised to a 2-0 road victory against Italy, while France ground out a 1-0 away win against Turkiye thanks to a Kylian Mbappé goal.
However, France will be without Mbappé for this one after he picked up a knee injury in that opener.
France arrives as the road favorite, leaning on proven quality even without their talisman. Belgium will look to exploit Mbappé’s absence and ride the confidence of a dominant opening performance.
I’ll break down the numbers from the opening round and identify the best betting angles for this Nations League showdown.
Belgium vs France Team Stats & Form
Both teams sit on three points after winning their respective openers, but how they got there tells very different stories.
Belgium’s 2-0 away win was comprehensive. They peppered the opposition with 16 shots (8 on target), scored in both halves, and kept a clean sheet – all while conceding the majority of possession at just 46%. Dodi Lukebakio and Mika Godts got on the scoresheet, while De Bruyne and Charles De Ketelaere each registered an assist.
France’s 1-0 win was far more controlled and conservative. Dominating possession at 62%, they were content to dictate tempo rather than create volume, managing just 10 shots (4 on target). Mbappé’s second-half strike was the difference, with Michael Olise providing the assist.
Matchday 1 Statistics
The contrast is clear: Belgium were far more direct and dangerous in front of goal despite seeing less of the ball. France controlled the game but created relatively little. Now remove Mbappé – the man who scored their only goal – and France’s already modest attacking output looks even more concerning.
Recent H2H Results: FRA vs BEL
Before locking in any wagers, the head-to-head history between these two sides deserves a long look. France has owned this rivalry recently, and it’s not particularly close
France have won five straight against Belgium dating back to the 2018 World Cup semifinal, including all four of their Nations League meetings. Belgium’s last win came in a June 2015 friendly (4-3), while their last competitive victory dates back decades. Across the three most recent clashes, France generated 17.0 shots per game while holding Belgium to just 10.0 – despite Belgium edging possession at 50.33%.
Belgium vs France Predictions & Best Bets
Based on these profiles and that historical dominance, here are my top plays.
Pick 1: France Moneyline (52¢ via Kalshi)
While sportsbooks list the France moneyline at -120, Kalshi currently offers “France Yes” at 52¢. That translates to implied odds of -108 – better value than the traditional line. France have beaten Belgium five times running, outscoring them 5-1 across the last three meetings alone. Even without Mbappé, this is a squad with serious depth, and they’ve already shown they can win ugly on the road. The head-to-head trend is too strong to ignore.
Pick 2: Under 3.5 Total Goals (-163 via Kalshi)
Both teams kept clean sheets in their openers, and this rivalry has been tight lately. The last three meetings produced scores of 1-2, 2-0, and 1-0 – all comfortably under 3.5. France scored just once in their opening match, and now they’re missing the guy who scored it. With both defenses looking sharp, this has low-scoring affair written all over it.
France vs Belgium Odds
Odds as of September 28, 2026 at 12:28 ET from theScore Bet.
France is the clear favorite at -120 on the three-way moneyline. Belgium sits at +300, with the draw at +290. The total is set at 3.5, with the Under heavily juiced at -169 – a reflection of just how tight these two defenses have looked.
Stripping out the vig from the moneyline gives us a clearer picture of what oddsmakers actually expect. Converting to implied probabilities: France (-120) is 54.55%, Belgium (+300) is 25.00%, and a Draw (+290) is 25.64%. That totals 105.19%, so normalizing:
- France: 51.86%
- Belgium: 23.77%
- Draw: 24.37%
In terms of payouts, a $20 bet on France (-120) returns $16.67 in profit ($36.67 total), while a $20 bet on Belgium (+300) returns $60.00 in profit ($80.00 total).
On line movement: France opened at -115 and has moved to -120. Belgium drifted from +290 to +300. The draw shifted from +300 down to +290. The total goals line has held steady at 3.5 (Over +135 / Under -169) since opening.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
