Nottingham Forest vs Southampton Odds, Prediction, Lineups – EPL Week 35
- Nottingham Forest hosts Southampton in the 35th Premier League matchday on Monday, May 8th, at 3:00 pm ET
- Both sides currently sit in the relegation zone, on 30 and 24 points, respectively
- Get our Nottingham Forest vs Southampton prediction and odds below
On Monday, Nottingham Forest vs Southampton kicks off in what will be the most important match of this year’s relegation battle. This is the final match between any of the five leading drop candidates, making the points ever so valuable. The hosts currently sit on 30 points, a tally that draws them level with Leicester City and Leeds. However, their dreadful -32 goal differential slots them in the final relegation spot.
Conversely, Southampton sit dead last on 24 points, in what seems to be an irrecoverable position. Keep reading for the Nottingham Forest vs Southampton odds and our predictions!
Nottingham Forest vs Southampton Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | +115 |
| Southampton | +240 |
| Draw | +255 |
Overall, Nottingham Forest are the favorites in this one, with moneyline odds of +115. In other words, they have an implied win probability of 46.5%. While Forest have been a tough watch this season, their record against the other teams in the bottom five is quite decent at 3-2-2.
Actually, one of those victories was a 1-0 triumph over this Southampton team in January. Moreover, Forest’s 6-6-5 record at home this season in the Premier League points to this match going in favor of the Tricky Trees.
In the Premier League odds, Southampton are the favorites to be relegated at -5000; Nottingham Forest have relegation odds of -120.
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Nottingham Forest vs Southampton odds as of May 7th from DraftKings Sportsbook. Want a great soccer bonus for the DFB-Pokal?
Nottingham Forest vs Southampton Over/Under
Additionally, this match is expected to stay under 2.5 total goals with odds of -125. The reverse option at this same goal total offers even money at +100. I would lean towards the under here, despite the over hitting in 60% of their last ten combined Premier League games. Steve Cooper will come into this match with Forest confident, and with the feeling they can control the tempo at home. Neither team has the scoring power to win a shootout, so a 1-0 or 2-0 result is more likely for either team. Also, 80% of Southampton’s last ten matches against teams in the bottom half have stayed under 2.5 total goals.
Nottingham Forest vs Southampton Props – Fade Both Teams to Score
Likewise, another smart play here is fading both teams to score with odds of +100. Ultimately, even if this match plays out differently than what we expect, it is likely one side does not score. In reality, this feels like a match where the first goal brings the game to a stand still pace.
Nottingham Forest vs Southampton Projected Lineups and Injuries
Nottingham Forest Projected Lineup: Navas, Lodi, Niakhate, Felipe, Worrall, Aurier, Mangala, Freuler, Gibbs-White, Lingard, Awoniyi
Major Injuries & Absences: Williams, Henderson, Biancone, Wood, Richards, Boly, McKenna, Danilo, Colback, Scarpa, Johnson (questionable)
Southampton Projected Lineup: McCarthy, Walker-Peters, Bella-Kotchap, Bednarek, Lyanco, Armstrong, Lavia, Ward-Prowse, Adams, Alcaraz, Sulemana
Major Injuries & Absences: Salisu, Perraud, Larios, Livramento (questionable)
Brennan Johnson’s Presence or Lack Thereof
All in all, I would be more confident in Nottingham Forest if the status of Brennan Johnson was clear. The 21 year-old is battling a small injury which could keep him sidelined versus Southampton.
Nottingham Forest vs Southampton Head-to-Head Statistics
| 0.88 | Goals per game | 0.82 |
| 1.04 | Expected goals per game | 0.94 |
| 1.82 | Goals allowed per game | 1.76 |
| 1.70 | Expected goals allowed per game | 1.51 |
| 38.3% | Possession % | 44.4% |
| 20.6% | Clean Sheet % | 16.7% |
| 9.9 | Shots per game | 11.0 |
| L-W-L-L-L | Recent Form Guide (All Comps) | L-L-D-L-L |
Stats in the table from 2022/23 Premier League play.
The local lad’s presence or lack thereof will certainly make a difference on Monday. For reference, he has scored ten goals this season, five more than any of his counterparts, including out-and-out striker Taiwo Awoniyi. Without him in the eleven, it inevitably puts a lot of pressure on the like of Awoniyi and Morgan Gibbs-White, who both have had up-and-down seasons.
Last time out at the CG ✨ pic.twitter.com/ZqcMZTHDjv
— Nottingham Forest (@NFFC) May 7, 2023
Nottingham Forest vs Southampton Prediction
In turn, I am the most confident in Nottingham Forest vs Southampton staying under 2.5 goals, and the BTTS play not hitting. If Johnson is ruled fit, I would encourage all readers to think about a play on the Forest moneyline. However, at this point, it is too risky and a draw no bet play does not offer enough value at -175.
Nottingham Forest vs Southampton Picks: Under 2.5 total goals (-125), No on BTTS (+100)
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Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
